Plaidcast  |  Middle East

Mis-guided Missile Mania

• Middle East
• World

Bombs away!!!

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Snubbing Syria Suddenly Stylish

• Middle East
• World

Arab League arenas of interest:

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Reverse Success

Egyptian Escape Episode 5: Back to the beginning, why the Egyptian Escape?

• Middle East

Greetings global watchers, and sorry for my week long hiatus. While reporting on the events in Gaza, I was invited to a Hamas hookah house party…which was a total blast. Literally! An Israeli airstrike brought the whole house down. What a rush! By the time I was unburied from the rubble and sobered up, Egypt had resealed the border so it took me a little time to sneak back across to a Jordanian internet café. Long story short, we need to finish our Gaza story…

So where the hell did I leave off? Oh yes, Fatah friends and Hamas Haters…and now we can point out how this situation has played out in the current border breech debacle. Since Hamas kicked Fatah out of the Gaza Strip, Israel and all its western allies (namely the US) have basically tried to make life a living hell for Hamas. Why? To get them the hell out of power because they refuse to recognize the right of Israel to exist, and therefore cannot play a part in the peace process. In other words, due to Hamas' political ideology, Israel and 'Team West' simply cannot interact with them at all, cannot give them an ounce of legitimacy at all, and cannot play ball with them at all…not even for a backyard pick-up game of Nerf! And since Hamas also uses suicide bombers and keeps lobbing homemade rockets over the wall into Israel, they are labeled as terrorists…and thus most western governments do not want to negotiate with terrorists. It should be noted that the rockets that Hamas lobs over the wall are about as tactically effective as lobbing over Nerf balls.

So how are Israel and Team West trying to crush Hamas? Why, by crushing the entire Gaza Strip of course! That is how this whole current mess started. Israel (with complicity from the West) slapped down the entire area with an embargo seven months ago, sealed off the borders, cut off the electricity and stopped all movement of virtually all goods and services. This was done for two reasons: 1)To punish Hamas and further demonstrate that the West hates them, and 2) To punish the inhabitants of the Gaza Strip so badly that they would turn on Hamas and stage some sort of coup. Everyone already knew #1….and #2 simply didn't really happen. And Israel and Team West really hates that #2 didn't happen….but don't we all hate when an expected #2 doesn't happen? My advice: eat more bran!

This 'starving out' of the Gaza Strip really reached a fever pitch as the Israelis (again, with complicity from the EU and the US) started shutting off the power about a month ago. And this fever pitch of desperation brings us back full circle to the events of two weeks ago—people got so desperate in Gaza that they blew a fucking hole in the wall on the Gaza/Egypt border, and spilled out en masse to buy food, fuel, smokes, and some more Nerf footballs. That's it. That's why it happened. And for two weeks, Egypt has largely allowed this to go on, trying more to control the flow of folks as opposed to outright stopping them. However they just did rebuild and secure the wall two days ago…so the wall breach is officially over, for now.

But this Gaza 'break-out' of course defeated the whole point of the embargo, and it seriously pissed off Israel, the US and most in the EU. And who suffered the brunt of this rage? Egypt of course! Egypt has been stuck right in the middle of this shit storm, and everything they do pisses someone off! How so?

Here's how: Egypt is an Arab state and as such has sympathies for the plight of the Palestinian Arabs in Gaza, which is why they allowed the wall breach to go on for so long without going ape shit and shooting people. In fact, most of the Arab world was glad to see Egypt easing the situation for the Gaza folks by letting them re-supply. But of course the soft stance that Egypt took totally pissed off Israel and the US, which has been beating them down and badgering the Egyptians to re-seal the border as fast as possible. Why should Egypt do anything those countries say? Because they are a huge US ally, and the #3 recipient of US foreign aid…that's why! Egypt has also signed a peace agreement with Israel, and therefore is kind of an 'ally' to them as well…although that definition may be pushing it just a little.

To appease the US and 'Team West', Egypt has made moves to tighten the flow of people, and it eventually did rebuild and seal the wall on Wednesday of this week…but of course that pissed off all the folks in Gaza, as well as pissing off a lot of Arabs across the entire Middle East that interpret this as Egypt sucking up to America. Well, yeah, kind of I guess, but what else are they to do? Completely open the border altogether? Hmmm….some have suggested just that, and in fact there is some speculation that maybe Egypt should just take over the entire damn Gaza Strip and make it part of Egypt! Dig:

How to Turn Gaza Over to Egypt

However, Egypt has put forth a resounding 'Hell-freakin-no!' to that idea already. They want to get out of this shit storm as fast as possible, and many Egyptians are plenty pissed that anyone would even suggest that they fully adopt this bullshit situation to fix on their own. Why the hell should they fix the fucking mess that 60 years of Arab-Israeli hi-jinks have created? Our main man Hosni Mubarak don't want to touch that shit! In fact, Egypt is basically pushing for ANYBODY to come take over this border area from them, so they can get out of the middle of the mayhem. They have even put forth a proposal for the Fatah controlled Palestinian Authority in West Bank (remember them?) to take over security at the border…a move which you should have instantaneously predicted would totally piss of Hamas:

Egypt wants PA back on Gaza border

Egypt boosts troop security along border with Gaza amid alleged Hamas' kidnapping threat

So now Hamas is pissed at Egypt, the Arab World is not happy with Egypt, and the US/Israel still don't think Egypt is doing enough to control the border. Damn! Egypt just pisses everybody off, no matter what they do! Sucks to be Egypt!

And the future? Not hard to predict…it is already upon us. Shit, shit and more shit to come for the Israelis, the Gaza inhabitants, and anyone who is trying to work for a single 'Palestine' state solution. And we won't have long to wait to see my predictions come true, as things are turning even nastier, even faster than usual:

Israel-Gaza Fighting Escalates

Cycle of violence continues in Gaza

Tensions in Gaza escalate

A Coming Hamas-Israel War?

So the Gazans feel that their backs are against a wall and that the Israeli embargo will starve them all to death, so they feel compelled to act with violence. Hamas apparently sanctioned a suicide bomber to blow up people in Dimona on Monday, and Hamas also continues to fire rockets into southern Israel on a regular basis. This infuriates Israel, which in turn decided to make the embargos even more harsh, and also to conduct air strikes in Gaza. Senior officials in Israel are now discussing the possibility of targeting all Hamas politicians. All these moves further isolate people in Gaza and make them feel that there backs are against the wall which compels them to act with violence…wait a damn minute! This is one of those vicious circle deals! This really sucks!

Full-on war is coming to this place my friends, and coming soon. I stand by the prediction I made back in the summer: the two-state solution is totally dead—meaning that the idea of a peace process between a state called Israel and a state called Palestine can no longer happen, since Palestine itself is fractured. The Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip will never reunite with the Fatah-controlled West Bank. But something is going to happen. Probably something shitty. I look for Hamas to continue to piss off Israel, which will inevitably lead to a full military invasion of Gaza by the Israelis….and I'll even give you a sudden flash of brilliance that occurred to me on how they will do it: Watch for a fully funded Fatah army to lead such a charge, or certainly be there to mop up and take over once Israel levels the place. Just an instinct on my part, but it is no guesswork that Fatah is already being funded and vamped up by Team West to ultimately control this territory again, and from past blogs you should know why!

Some of you may be asking: "But Plaid, why doesn't the UN just come in and take over this mess?" That is an excellent question that is worthy of another blog, perhaps you would like me to visit the UN Security Council and ask them personally?….or would you like me to head to some other hotspots to see what's up…maybe Kenya?…maybe Chad?…maybe a XXX nightclub on the outskirts of Amsterdam? I am your humble servant my friends, so drop me a line on this blog decide where my next adventure will take me…

Until then, Party in Plaid.

-PA

Egyptian Escape Episode 4: Fatah Friends and Hamas Haters

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Egyptian Escape Episode 3: What the Freak is Fatah?

• Middle East

Greetings again Plaid Friends! The Avenger has returned to this tumultuous topic of tremendous trepidation and tribulations—the troubles in Palestine, or what is left of Palestine depending upon your view. We've talked about the territories, I've harangued you about Hamas, so let's now get our freak on with Fatah!
Fatah's Politics Make Peace Impolitic

Abbas wins Egypt backing on border

Still in crisis

So what the freak is a Fatah? Fatah is all at once several things:

• #1 Fatah is the largest organization in the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), a multi-party confederation.
• #2 Fatah is a, if not the, major political party in Palestine (like the Democrats or Republicans in the US)
• #3 Fatah is mostly a nationalist party (fighting for an independent state named Palestine) but also has a social network which includes many militant sub-groups, as well as many socialist/charitable sub-groups (not unlike Hamas).
• #4 Fatah currently completely controls the government of the West Bank, and is recognized internationally as the only government in charge of Palestine in its entirety—in other words, Fatah is being recognized as the only politically legitimate voice of all Palestinian peoples, even if many in Hamas would beg to disagree.

Confusing enough for you? Let's take these one at a time…but a couple definitions to start:

The Palestinian National Authority/Palestinian Authority is the interim government of the Palestinian territories, first headed by headed by Yasser Arafat and now led by Mahmoud Abbas. Basically, it's the 'government' of Palestine, but since Palestine is not an officially recognized sovereign state in the eyes of the world, it's still an 'interim' government. The basic assumption here is that Palestine is in the process of becoming a state eventually, but it's not yet there. Israelis who do not recognize a Palestinian state, always drop the word 'National' and refer to it as the Palestinian Authority. You will see it used both ways in lots of different places.

Meanwhile back at the Bat-cave, the Palestinian Liberation Organization aka the PLO is an umbrella group of a shitload of different political and militant groups originially headed by Yasser Arafat. The PLO started in Egypt in 1964 as a political movement uniting Palestinian Arabs in an effort to create an independent state of Palestine—their main objective has always been an independent Palestine, although in the past it also touted a need for the destruction of the state of Israel for this to happen. For a good portion of its history, the PLO was considered a terrorist organization, and an extremely rich one at that ($8-10 billion in assets). In 1968 Arafat became chairman; received recognition by the United Nations and by Arab states in 1974 as a government in exile; and thus has played a largely political role since the creation of the Palestine National Authority. The Palestine Liberation Organization is considered by the Arab League and by the United Nations to be the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people and it holds a permanent observer seat in the United Nations General Assembly. Now, the story of the PLO is much more fact-packed and complicated than I'm explaining here, but there is one more specific tidbit that you must know about Arafat and the PLO to understand today's Gaza debacle:

***This is critical: Yasser Arafat signed the 'Declaration of Principles' with Israel in 1993 and exchanged mutual renunciations of terrorism with Israel and a mutual recognition between the PLO and Israel, and was allowed to return to the Palestinian territories from exile in Tunisia. What's so important about that? In this letter, Arafat is basically saying that his group will not officially condone any more terrorism, and most importantly recognizes Israel's right to exist. Kind of. Perhaps more factually, he says that the destruction of Israel is no longer a goal or demand of the PLO and by default the Palestinian National Authority. This is why he was allowed to return and head the interim government, and why he became 'legitimate' spokesman for the Palestinians and a 'legitimate' player in the peace process. Why is this so crucial for our story? Because Hamas has not made a similar denouncement of terrorism and recognition of Israel—that's why they are not 'legitimate' players in this game in the eyes of the West.

But wait Plaid Avenger! I thought you were just talking about the PLO! How can you compare the PLO legitimacy with Hamas illegitimacy? I thought this blog was about Fatah! I'm confused!

I know, I know, my friends. I've intentionally led you down a blind alley talking about the PLO so that I wouldn't have to muddle terms. I've left out one big component that you should now be ready to handle: Fatah is indeed a separate political party in Palestine, but it is also the most powerful political party in the PLO! Confused more or less now? (Go back and read this story again if still confused:Still in crisis) Fatah has always been the major stakeholder of power in the PLO, Fatah has more or less controlled the action of the PLO, and what's more, Yasser Arafat was simultaneously the head of the PLO, the head of the Fatah political party, and the head of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA)! Damn, let's make it more confusing: Mahmoud Abbas, the current President is the PNA took all of Arafat's titles too! He is head of Fatah, head of the PLO, and head of the PNA. Got it yet? Shit! Good! Someone explain it back to me!

The Avenger is usually pretty astute with analogies, but I'm not sure one exists to compare to this situation. But I'll try. It would be something like this: pretend for a minute that George Bush Jr. is the head of the Republican Party. Now pretend that he is simultaneously President of the US. Oops, I keep forgetting that he kind of is….kind of. Finally, pretend that he also is the head of an international coalition of Republicans from across the world who are bound be a single mission…. I don't know, maybe the elimination of all corporate taxes, or perhaps a world-wide country club membership that included a free-golf-for-life clause. Whatever. Hopefully you get my point. Arafat, and now Abbas, have always worn these three hats at the same time: 1)head of the political party (Fatah), 2)head of an international organization in which their political party is the major player (PLO), and 3)head of the government in which their political party controls (Palestine).

So now back to our Fatah story. The Fatah movement—promoting an independent Palestine which would be liberated by the actions of Palestinian Arabs—was founded in 1958 by members of the Palestinian diaspora (mostly professionals working in the Gulf States who had been refugees in Gaza and had gone on to study in Cairo). This is when Arafat became involved and quickly rose to leadership. As referenced above, Arafat and his Fatah party became the foundation stone of the PLO in 1964. For the following decades, Fatah/PLO provided training to a wide range of militant and insurgent groups, and carried out numerous attacks against Israeli targets in the Middle East and abroad—thus their 'terrorist' status. Fatah became the dominant force in Palestinian politics after the 1967 Six-Day War dealt seriously dismembered the already fractured Palestinian territory.

Since then, Fatah has been the primary voice of the Palestinian plight, both internally but also on the international stage. And I mean THE primary voice. Like 90% of the politicians in Palestine were Fatah folks. However, like I alluded to in the Hamas blog, it is at its core a political party made up of lots of different folks with lots of different views. Some are more worried about social issues, others more militant and concerned only with the intractable Israeli dispute, and yet others who want to seek political solutions to the whole debacle. As time has wore on, many Palestinians have come to view Fatah as largely corrupt internally (it is), and largely incompetent and useless internationally (since there have been virtually no positive movements towards the territorial dispute). Yeah….these guys got troubles.

As such, Fatah has been losing support from the Palestinian masses for years. And the final hammer just dropped: In 2005, Hamas won landslide victories in nearly all the municipalities it contested, and in the January 25, 2006 parliamentary election, Fatah lost its majority in the Palestinian parliament to Hamas, and resigned all cabinet positions, instead assuming the role as the main opposition party.

So where does that leave us? Is it over for Fatah? Not hardly! The turn of events of last summer witnessed Hamas literally kicking the Fatah folks out of Gaza—but don't count them out yet! Fatah retaliated by firing all the Hamas officials and taking over sole control of the West Bank. And all this controversy has resulted in widespread international support for Fatah, to the exclusion of Hamas….And you'll have to tune in tomorrow for more analysis on the world's view of these groups, who likes who, who hates who, and how all that ties into the current Egyptian Escape theme…

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