Wahoo for Netanyahu!!!; Palestinian Peace Process Pillaged
Synopsis: Benjamin Netanyahu is the new Prime Minister of Israel. This is much more than a simple changing of the guard of a head of state. Netanyahu and his Likud party represent a serious shift to the political right for Israel…which means a much more hawkish approach to Iran and Hamas, and a virtual end to any peace process with Palestine. The US and the world will have to seriously change their approach to all things Israel with this new leadership in command.
Israel's new leader faces a rough ride to the middle
Netanyahu calls for unity after taking PM post
Binyamin Netanyahu targets Iran after he is appointed Prime Minister
Preparing for a Hard-Right Israel
Key words: Netanyahu, Israel, Tzipi, Likud, Kadima, Iran, Palestine
-----Gaza Grind Update: Dumb-asses Destined for Destruction
Greetings global watchers, and sorry for my months-long hiatus. I was on a top-secret undercover mission reclaiming a Swedish sea-tanker full of supermodels from Somalia pirates whe
n the current Gaza bullshit hit the fan once again. By the time I uncovered myself from Miss January and swam out of a pool of Absolut heaven, the rockets red glare was already lighting my path to the bombs bursting in air…over the Gaza Strip. These guys sure know how to ring the new year in right….with a deafening ringing in my ears from all the strategic bombs dropping in on us from above! Good thing Santa didn't have to deliver too may presents around this place, or he might have gotten blasted out of the freakin' sky in all this crossfire.
And this strip is blowing up! Holy shit! What the hell is happening in this place? I had no intentions on revisiting this mess after our five-part blog-o-thon on Palestine, but current events have forced me back in, as have all of your viewer requests to explain this debacle of humanity here at the holiday season. So let's just delve right into it, and let the Plaid Avenger explain as simply as I can why all parties involved in this shoot-out are a complete bunch of dumb-asses. It's a mêlée of madness and a fracas of fools, in which there is no freakin' way anyone will come out a winner. I will give you a few inside tips on all parties affected here, and the impacts go well beyond the two groups shooting missiles at each other. But let's get directly to the dumbness, one dip at a time….
Israel's Punishing Assault on Gaza Continues for Sixth Day
First off, what the hell happened? Well, in short, the same damn thing that has been happening for months: Both Israel and Hamas-led Gaza Strip have supposedly had a cease-fire that both sides have not really honored. Israel has bombed supply tunnels between Egypt and Gaza, and the Hamas militant wing has been lobbing homem
ade rockets into Israel. And when the useless cease-fire officially ended a week ago—surprise, surprise—both sides resumed bombing again. Oh, wait, they never really stopped. So this is all bullshit right from the get go. For 6 days now, Israel has led a full-on, full-blown strategic missile attack with its goal being the outright destruction of Hamas. Hamas has responded in kind by firing even more rockets into Israel. Happy fucking holidays everyone.
Child casualties mount in beseiged Gaza
Israeli foreign minister says Gaza assault will protect freedom
The rest of the horrific details you can glean from any news source: 4 Israeli casualties, 400 Gaza casualties including a senior Hamas official, in a completely one-sided 'battle' that is producing a civilian death toll and looming humanitarian disaster. As you have picked up on in previous blogs, Israel has had an economic stranglehold on the area for almost two whole years in an effort to bring Hamas to its knees and get the Palestinian people to kick them out of office…and that has just worked wonderfully well. NOT. In return, Hamas has lobbed rockets into Israel to protest this embargo in an effort to change the conditions and be taken seriously…and that has worked wonderfully well too. NOT. What a bunch of bone-heads.
Let's look at each groups' aims and intentions, and why they are complete dumb-asses for thinking they are somehow going to 'win.' Oh, and the dumb-assery extends well beyond they two main missile-launching players; there are many other dolts contributing to the chaos in their own distinct dumb-ass ways too…
But let's start with why Hamas is a dumb-ass. Rather, I should say the militant wing of Hamas, the guys responsible for shooting the glorified fireworks into Israel. Because as you now know, Hamas has a social wing and a political wing as well, and its those political guys who won the Gaza election and are in charge of the government….whatever that means in a war zone. However, you should be aware that many of the political guys also support the militant guys, which makes all this even more problematic.
What is Hamas' reason for shooting these rockets into Israel? For one: they got nothin
g better to do. Yeah, I know, sounds like I'm just ranting. But I mean it. Since Hamas won the election and took charge of Gaza, no outside entity will even recognize them as legitimate. No one will deal with them. No one will help them. Israel, the EU, the US and others immediately started a diplomatic and economic embargo to internally destroy the movement before the election results were even tallied, so I'm being dead serious when I say that these guys have nothing better to do. And you know what they say about idle hands….Lots of poor people with no jobs, no economy, no life, and lots of anger. Hmmm…I wonder how that recipe turns out?
Two: with no respect, no funding, and no economy, Hamas has been lobbing the rockets into Israel to be seen as a real and viable threat that must be taken seriously at the negotiation table. Kind of like the way North Korea is with nuclear weapons: it's the idea that they could cause harm is why they have to be taken seriously, not that they actually want to or will cause that harm. Because kooky North Korea might have nukes, they have a wild card to play at the table in order to give themselves leverage. Hamas has been using the homemade rocket attacks in the same manner; as a tool for leverage in order to renegotiate the embargo against them, as well as the diplomatic diss they have received.
Dumb-asses! This tactic has not worked for two years! Why would it suddenly start working now? Of course, we all know and understand that Hamas is hopelessly outgunned, outnumbered, outflanked and worst of all are not a serious, credible threat to Israel. (I will argue the counter-point for this momentarily.) So in essence, they know they cannot win and are simply trying to survive intact; much like Hezbollah did last year in the face of a similar onslaught from Israel in Lebanon. Unfortunately for Hamas, the geographic and political difference between them and the Hezbollah situation are huge.
What do I mean? Gaza is tiny, isolated, and essentially surrounded. Israel has physically occupied it in the past, and could easily do so in the future (shit, it may happen next week!). Tanks and army dudes are massing at the borders as we speak. Worst of all, the only outlet that Gaza has to the outside world is their border with Egypt, and Egypt has pretty much sided with Israel and the US on this situation, so the border is sealed. More on that Egyptian escapade below.
Bottom line, the Hamas militant wing has anted up into a poker game in which it has no more chips. And they have not just anted up themselves, but the entire 1.5 million population of the Gaza. The leader of Hamas Ismael Haniyeh is now saying "victory is near" for them. Damn. What a bunch of dumb-asses. Ready to sacrifice women and children in an effort to simply have your political party stay alive a little bit longer so that you can claim a victory against Israel. Hell, he even may be right. Maybe their survival/destruction will incite a massive retaliation against Israel. Maybe. But is it really worth the price of death and destruction of your people? Many of the Hamas folks would say yes. I don't dig it. That is a dumb-ass approach.
But hold the phone! Let's jump to the next dumb-ass party involved here, and that of course is Israel. Israel's whole stated objective for their past embargo/current attack on Gaza is security. They claim that they have to do all this to stop the lobbing of homemade rockets into their territory by the Hamas terrorists. The embargo was meant to starve Hamas out, and since it hasn't worked fast enough, now is the time to bomb Hamas out. Well, I can understand that viewpoint perfectly. Who wants bombs being thrown into their territory in perpetuity?
However, if its security against attacks that Israel is seeking, I simply cannot think of a more dumb-ass way to try and get it. Damn, you guys don't have to be rocket scientists here…oh, pun definitely intended! By the use of overwhelming force causing civilian casualties, Israel is fanning the flames of Palestinian/Arab/Iranian/Muslim extremist dissent. Actually, let me re-phrase that: they aren't just fanning the flames, they are pouring 20 gallons of gasoline on the fire. Dudes! This is insane! Short of using a nuclear weapon on an Arab country, I cannot think of a better way for Israel to piss off all its enemies simultaneously than what it is doing right this second.
'Let us help you fight Israel in Gaza'
How simultaneously? Well, beating up the Gazans of course pisses off a lot of Palestinians in general…even the ones over in the West Bank. The Palestini
ans are Arab, so its pissing off Arabs all over the Middle East…and that is a lot of folks. Particularly whack-ass crazy Sunni extremist groups who already hate Israel, like al-Queda et al. But Hamas is supported partially by the Iranians, who of course also support Hezbollah, so there is even now renewed ire from the Shia radical groups too. Damn! How dumb-ass are you to piss off tens of millions of people in an effort to stop a handful of people from lobbing rockets at you?
Hey man, I understand that countries got to protect their borders and all, but the potential price that might have to be paid in the long run for Israel to quiet this small group looks awfully heavy to me. This military strike against Hamas may be the catalyst for all sorts of terrorist groups to come out of the woodwork to start striking Israel. Hell, they may just up and shift operations out of Iraq and Afghanistan and refocus on Israel again full-time. The thought sends a shiver down my spine. Pretty dumb-ass move. But there are some more asses to get to….
Egypt is up to their armpits in this shit-storm too, and I think they may become the biggest loser of them all in this cesspool of a conflict. See, Egypt is a huge US ally, and they have already recognized the right for Israel to exist, and therefore they have to tow the US/Israel line on this whole freakin' Hamas hoosegow. So while the Gazans have been getting starved out, Egypt has held the border officially firm….even though everyone knows there were supply tunnels running under the border between the two states, which is why Israel bombed them. However Egypt came out last week officially condemning Hamas, blaming them for the whole situation, and sealing up the border even more.
This has infuriated other Arab leaders and Arab peoples who see this as Egypt slamming shut the only escape door in the face of the Arab Gazans. And why would Egypt screw over their Arab brothers? Hmmmm…could $1.4 billion in foreign aid yearly from the US have anything to do with it? Nah…..couldn't be. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak himself said that his country would keep the border closed until Mahmoud Abbas (remember him? The Fatah leader of the West Bank) regains control of the Gaza Strip. This is in direct agreement with US and Israeli policy of starving Gaza out in order to get Hamas gone. And Arab people are pissed. There have been open demonstrations and riots outside of Egyptian embassies in Yemen, Oman, and Lebanon.
Egypt responds to Hezbollah criticism over Gaza
Why would I suggest that Egypt may suffer the worst consequences of this mess? Not so much Egypt herself, as the Mubarak administration have already been lambasted by other Arab states, but the big problem for Mubarak & Co. is that they are in the minority opinion in the country they lead. Hosni has long been seen as a US hack, and most Egyptians have grown exceedingly frustrated by Mubarak's tight relationship with the US. The average Egyptian is not a fan of US foreign policy, or of Israeli foreign poli
cy, or of their own government's foreign policy. The fact that Egypt is a sham democracy doesn't help much either….Hosni is his third decade of 'emergency rule' over a supposed democracy. Anti-government sentiment is growing to dangerous levels, and Egypt shutting down the border while their Arab Gazan brothers get the shit blown out of them is not playing well at home. Pretty dumb-ass move. Watch for serious blowback in Egypt even after the dust settles from this latest round of violence in Gaza.
As Israel Pounds Gaza, Egyptians Get Angry At Their Own Government
Gaza attack strengthens Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood
But I shouldn't pick just on the Arab Egyptian government for being dumb-asses….because there are many other dumb-ass Arab governments helping to compound this situation. While Egypt has openly made dumb-ass moves, most of the other Arab governments have done covertly dumb-ass ones. For just a few moments, please contemplate the absolute excesses of wealth that most Arab governments enjoy because of oil revenues…especially places like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. These guys wipe their asses with $100 bills! And yet every time the collection plate is passed around to help the Palestinians, the coffers come up empty. On top of that, no Arab states offer to actually bring in some of them Palestinians as refugees. Oh hell naw! They aren't letting those poor saps come into their countries!
Divisions Deep at Arab League Meeting
Arab lawmakers dicuss Gaza at Lebanon meeting
At the same time, these governments bash the Israeli attack and bash the US/EU support of Israel. Of course almost all of the Arab governments have openly decried the Gaza bombing as terrible and horrific…..but none of them have actually done a dam thing about it. They just can't seem to bring themselves to help, because quite frankly its probably much better political tool for them for the issue to never be solved. But the peoples in these Arab countries are not fooled, and like Egypt, many are growing increasingly dissatisfied with their own governments' policies. This gives rise to extremism, and grows local support for radical anti-government/terrorist groups. Its no wonder that all these Arab governments are increasingly scared of the rise of Iranian power, as Iran is the only government gaining in popularity in the region, since it appears to be the only state capable of 'standing up' to Israel/the US/the West. That has Arab leaders soiling their robes. And the US ain't happy about that either…speaking of which….
Yes, the US has made some dumb-ass moves in this Gazan chess game as well, although I'm not one to suggest their role is hugely important right now. The US stands staunchly by its Israeli ally; that's no dispute, and quite frankly no problem. That is what is expected. But the US is supposed to be the champion of democracy, and here is where they take the big dumb-ass hit. It was the US who suggested and promoted a democratic election in Gaza, and then when the votes were counted, promptly refused to recognize the democratically elected Hamas. Hey George and Condi, I completely understand why you hate Hamas, but not respecting the democratic process you promoted looks foolish. On top of that, the US is tight buddies with Hosni (a sham democracy) and tighter buddies with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia (as freakin' far away as you can get from democracy.)
While the US has publicly called for an end to violence, it also has tacitly given Israel the go-ahead to do whatever it takes to get rid of Hamas. Sorry to have to bash GW in his last days in office, but what a dumb-ass move. Beating down these groups has consistently only made them stronger and more supported by the peoples of the region. Why can no one learn this lesson? I'm usually not the tree-hugging peace pipe smoking type myself, but this violence has not, is not, and will never be the solution to any of the concerns of this region.
So Hamas continues to fire rockets for dumb-ass reasons to make a political point, although no one is going to come to their rescue. Israel continues to annihilate Gaza in a dumb-ass attempt t
o restore 'security' although the likelihood of this increasing terrorist attacks is almost certain. Egypt continues dumb-assedly tow the US/Israel line on Hamas, although this may cause their own population to totally boil over. Arab countries are dumb-asses in their lack of any real solutions or even tangible assistance to the Palestinians. And the US has got to figure out a better strategy than facilitating violence. When it comes to democracy, if your gonna talk the talk, then you better walk the walk.
Sorry for the depressing entry into the new year, but you people asked for it. These dumb-asses have a long dreary death-filled year ahead of them. Let's hope someone wises up before its too late.
Gaza Grind, Episode 5: Current Calamity
Greetings again global watchers for our final installment on the gritty Gaza grind-down. While reporting on the events in Gaza, I was invited to a Hamas hookah house party…which was a total blast. Literally! An Israeli airstrike brought the whole house down. What a rush! By the time I was unburied from the rubble and sobered up, I had missed the Thanksgiving turkey and cranberry vodka shooters. Since there is no food available here, I had to amble across to Amman to absorb some Armagnac and hit up Jordanian internet café. Long story short, we need to finish our Gaza story…
So where the hell did I leave off? Oh yes, Fatah friends and Hamas haters…and now we can point out how this situation has played out in the current debacle. Since Hamas kicked Fatah out of the Gaza Strip, Israel and all its western allies (namely the US) have basically tried to make life a living hell for Hamas. Why? Answer: To get them the hell out of power because Hamas refuses to recognize the right of Israel to exist, and therefore cannot play a part in the peace process. In other words, due to Hamas' political ideology, Israel and 'Team West' simply cannot interact with them 
at all, cannot give them an ounce of legitimacy at all, and cannot play ball with them at all…not even for a backyard pick-up game of Nerf! And since Hamas also uses suicide bombers and keeps lobbing homemade rockets over the wall into Israel, they are labeled as terrorists…and thus most western governments do not want to negotiate with terrorists. It should be noted that the rockets that Hamas lobs over the wall are about as tactically effective as lobbing over Nerf balls.
So how are Israel and Team West trying to crush Hamas? Why, by crushing the entire Gaza Strip of course! That is how this whole current mess started. Israel (with complicity and assistance from the West) halted all aid, food supplies, and tax revenues to the government of Gaza after Hamas won the January 2006 elections there. And after the Hamas/Fatah showdown in Feb 2007 in which Hamas kicked the Fatah guys completely out of the Gaza Strip, Israel and the US got really serious about grinding the Gaza down….Israel slapped down the entire area with an full-on, border-sealing embargo. Sealed off the borders, cut off the electricity and stopped all movement of virtually all goods and services.
This was done for two 
reasons: 1)To punish Hamas and further demonstrate that the West hates them, and 2) To punish the inhabitants of the Gaza Strip so badly that they would turn on Hamas and stage some sort of coup. Everyone already knew #1….and #2 simply didn't really happen. And Israel and Team West really hates that #2 didn't happen….but don't we all hate when an expected #2 doesn't happen? My advice: eat more bran!
Now, there has been tit for tat, rockets thrown by both sides, back and forth, ever since. Sometimes a cease fire is enacted for a while, and things get eased, but it soon gets hot again, and the starvation tactic is kicked back in by Israel and the West. This 'starving out' of the Gaza Strip really reached a fever pitch again in January 2008 as the Israelis (again, with complicity from the EU and the US) started shutting off the power totally, and fully sealed the border, effectively shutting down all trade and flow of aid/food into the Gaza. You may have heard about this one too—people got so 
desperate in Gaza by Febrary 2008 that they blew a fucking hole in the wall on the Gaza/Egypt border, and spilled out en masse to buy food, fuel, smokes, and some more Nerf footballs. That's it. That's why it happened. And for weeks, Egypt had largely allowed this to go on, trying more to control the flow of folks as opposed to outright stopping them. However (bowing to US and Israeli pressure) they did rebuild and secure the wall…so the wall breach is officially over, for now. But this Gaza 'break-out' of course defeated the whole point of the embargo, and it seriously pissed off Israel, the US and most in the EU.
Things started simmering down again after that Egyptian Escape Episode and there was about a five-month cease fire and relaxing of the embargo, but as with all things in the Middle East, nothing stays quiet for long….which brings us full circle to the reason for this blog run. Shit done got hot again this November! Just in time for turkey time!
Israel launched an incursion into the Gaza to uncover a tunnel that was being dug into Israel proper…the assessment is that the tunnel was to become a conduit to kidnap Israeli soldiers and citizens, or simply to launch an offensive attack outright. This off course pissed off Hamas, who started launching rockets again…and as per usual the shit hit the fan in every direction. Israel once again tightened the embargo, and this time the ante has been upped tremendously…
All financial aid has once again ceased. All UN food aid ceased. All parts and fuel for Gaza's only power plant have ceased to be allowed in, which means all energy is gone. All cross border trade has ceased, which means there is no economy at all. No reporters are allowed in or out of the place either, so even news has ceased. Dudes, these people are screwed.
By the way, perhaps you are wondering how Israel can so radically alter the flow of goods and services into the tiny Gaza Strip. Well, Israel did officially pull out its peoples and its military forces entirely from the Gaza back in 2005, largely to work peacefully towards the two-state solution. However, Israel maintained its total control over the border situation between Gaza and the rest of the world (with the exception of a single border crossing on the Gaza/Egypt border.) Israel controls all international aid and UN aid distributed to Gaza. Israel even controls the taxes collected in the Strip. Well, maybe other countries should just ship in supplies via boat…I mean, Gaza has coastline on the Med, right? Ummm…well, no that won't work either….Israel controls the territorial waters off the Gazan coast too.
Israel controls the flow of people, of money, of aid, of the economy, of electricity, and even of information. Total control all the way around. The Gazans are being ground down, and here is the result:
Israel re-imposes Gaza blockade
UN chief admits Gaza crisis fears
UN agency in Gaza runs out of food
Israel's new bid to undercut Hamas pushes Gaza toward crisis
Israel Seals Off Gaza Once Again: This Time Cutting Off Power
The UN head Ban Ki-Moon is seriously worried. Humanitarian groups are seriously worried. Relief agencies are seriously worried. In what is kind of an insult to the world, the current official Israeli response to the world concern has been to tell everyhone that nothing is actually happening….there is no crisis! There are no kids starving! All is well! The Gazans are all full of shit! Ummmm….yeah….right.
But this blog is not an Israeli smack-down. I'm just here telling you this shit so you understand the current events that are unfolding. So let me finish up with a little future predictions summary.
So the future? Not hard to predict…it is already upon us. Shit, shit and more shit to come for the Israelis, the Gaza inhabitants, and anyone who is trying to work for a single 'Palestine' state solution. And we won't have long to wait to see my predictions come true, as things are turning even nastier, even faster than usual:
Talks to end Hamas-Fatah split postponed indefinitely
Analysis: Cairo concludes Fatah-Hamas chasm will not end anytime soon
Fatah would win Palestinian elections: opinion
Foreign press issues plea to reopen Gaza crossing
U.N. calls Israel's blockade of Gaza "unacceptable"
So the Gazans feel that their backs are against a wall and that the Israeli embargo will starve them all to death, so they feel compelled to act with violence. Hamas will continue to lob rockets and dig tunnels forever. This infuriates Israel, which in turn will make the embargos even more harsh, and also to conduct air strikes in Gaza. Senior officials in Israel are now discussing the possibility of targeting all Hamas politicians. All these moves further isolate people in Gaza and make them feel that there backs are against the wall which compels them to act with violence…wait a damn minute! This is one of those vicious circle deals! This really sucks!
Full-on war is coming to this place my friends, and coming soon. I stand by the prediction I made back in the summer: the two-state solution is totally dead—meaning that the idea of a peace process between a state called Israel and a state called Palestine can no longer happen, since 
Palestine itself is fractured. The Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip will never reunite with the Fatah-controlled West Bank. But something is going to happen. Probably something shitty. I look for Hamas to continue to piss off Israel, which will inevitably lead to a full military invasion of Gaza by the Israelis….and I'll even give you a sudden flash of brilliance that occurred to me on how they will do it: Watch for a fully funded Fatah army to lead such a charge, or certainly be there to mop up and take over once Israel levels the place. Just an instinct on my part, but it is no guesswork that Fatah is already being funded and vamped up by Team West to ultimately control this territory again, and from past blogs you should know why!
Some of you may be asking: "But Plaid, why doesn't the UN just come in and take over this mess?" That is an excellent question that is worthy of another blog, perhaps you would like me to visit the UN Security Council and ask them personally?….or would you like me to head to some other hotspots to see what's up…maybe Kenya?…maybe Chad?…maybe a XXX nightclub on the outskirts of Amsterdam? I am your humble servant my friends, so drop me a line on this blog decide where my next adventure will take me…
Until then, Party in Plaid.
-PA
Gaza Grind, Episode 4: Fatah Friends and Hamas Haters
[NOTE TO PLAID FRIENDS: I posted this blog 15 months ago exactly as you see it below. I was going to edit and update it, but the dead-on accuracy of my plaid predictions boosted my ego way too much for me to change it...and it is still informative enough for you to get the gist of what the hell I'm talkin' about. Damn! When you're good, you're good....and when you're me, you're better!]
Greetings again Plaid Friends! The Avenger has returned after four shots to do part four of this freaky blog, with this episode focusing on how Fatah is feeling frisky and free, while its Hamas rivals are hopelessly hammered and hamstrung. What the fuck am I talking about? If you have read the previous blogs on this subject, you now understand that the Fatah political party in Palestine was run out of the Gaza section and now is concentrated in, and outright controls, the West Bank section. Hamas is the other Palestinian political party—you know, the ones that are labeled as a terrorist group by some—and are in control of the Gaza Strip section of Palestine. These two political parties now hate each other even more fervently than they did before this open rift physically separated the pseudo-state we call Palestine.
As the Plaid Avenger now sees it, the idea of a singular state called Palestine which consists of both the Gaza and the West Bank is officially and completely fucking DEAD. And even if the peace process as a whole isn't dead, then certainly Hamas and the whole Gaza population is being pushed to the brink of extinction….and most of the outside world is helping accelerate this demise. Don't believe me? Then check these out:
Israel re-imposes Gaza blockade
Hamas welcomes Arab decision to send aid to the blockaded Gaza Strip
UN head fears over Gaza blockade
Israel bans press in the Gaza Strip
Life runs backwards in Gaza as blockade bites
Israel to free 250 Palestinian prisoners
Fatah would win Palestinian elections: opinion poll
Hamas is screwed. Why? Because they are the group that is despised by Israel and 'the West' because they have a militant wing of their party that condones suicide bombings and calls for the destruction of Israel. As pointed out in a previous blog, most of Hamas is not that radical, but the small minority that are have gotten the entire political party labeled as such. This is the primary reason why Israel, the US, the EU and many other international players are completely turning their backs on Hamas and refusing to recognize them as a real and legitimate political party that controls Gaza. [Never mind that Hamas actually won the power in democratic elections…] To compound the outsiders' hate of Hamas, the fact that Hamas physically and succinctly kicked Fatah out of the Gaza Strip last summer has only served to piss off the international players on this stage even more. So how to punish Hamas, this group that is so despised? Well, that leads to point #2….
Gaza is screwed. In an effort to destabilize, demoralize, and outright destroy Hamas power, almost all international actors are isolating and punishing the inhabitants of the Gaza Strip. Check stories above for just a few references. International aid has been slashed, EU is shutting down its power plant that provides electricity, and Israel has tightened all economic activities across the borders in Gaza to the point that there really is no economy at all. Essentially, the whole group is being starved out as punishment for first off electing the Hamas leadership, and secondly for supporting the expulsion of Fatah, and thirdly for allowing Hamas to continue to remain in power. Sound fucking harsh? Yeah, it does to me too, but I'm not here to get on a political soapbox and generate sympathy…I just want you to understand what the hell is going on. However, while the Gaza Strip is getting shattered, not everybody is a loser in this game….consider Abbas and Fatah…
Mahmoud Abbas is still the leader of the Fatah political Party, and the leader of the PLO, and now the de facto leader of the West Bank. And life is looking awfully cheery for him right now. Look again at the stories linked above. In just the last 12 months, here has what has happened to Abbas and his Fatah party:
- Official recognition as the legitimate rulers of Palestine (whatever that means anymore)
- US, Israel, and the EU resumed all international aid programs to the West Bank–in effect, directly to Fatah since they control the West Bank (BTW…Gaza is excluded from all this aid)
- Israel has released a shitload of Fatah political prisoners from its jails as a token of goodwill. They did it again just this week.
- US, EU, Israel and even Russia have increased international investment into the West Bank
- Abbas has met with pretty much every important world leader in the last month. None have gone to Gaza.
Starting to get the picture here? The long and short of it is that the outside world is legitimizing Abbas and Fatah in an effort to further isolate Hamas. Why? Go back to Fatah blog again and check it out. Under Arafat, Fatah denounced terrorism and suicide bombings, and recognized the right of Israel to exist. While not all folks in Fatah may actually believe in those pledges, it is precisely the reason that Israel, the US, and the EU are currently supporting them over their political rivals Hamas, which of course has not done any of those things.
And quite frankly, I think that's probably all you need to know right now to understand exactly what is happening, and what the very likely outcome will be. Now you understand why Gaza is being isolated and starved…don't you? Now you understand why Abbas is 'the West's' best friend….don't you? And perhaps you now understand why the idea of a single Palestinian state comprised of both Gaza and the West Bank together is completely fucked….don't you?
The future is not hard to predict either: as millions in aid and international recognition flows to Abbas and Fatah in the West Bank, they will thrive and become richer. More importantly, they will be recognized internationally as the true voice of the Palestinian state….whatever that means. For instance, if there is to be a Palestinian seat at the UN, it will definitely be filled with a guy from Fatah. No doubts. Israel and the US in particular will make it their mission to pull the West Bank from squalor to make sure that the world sees a state that has denounced terrorism become a success story in the Middle East. Will it actually happen? Hell if I know, but I bet you will increasingly see lots of 'success stories' reported out of the West Bank.
And Gaza? Well, grinding poverty produces two things: 1)lots of suffering and death and 2)further radicalization of radical people. Surprise, surprise! Things are going to suck even worse for those folks, and some of those folks will get even more extreme. What a shocker. To be fair, Israel, the US and the EU are probably hoping that their tough stance towards Hamas will effect some sort of softening of Hamas' stance, or perhaps that the locals will overthrow Hamas and then beg 'the West' for forgiveness, but the Avenger does not see that happening anytime soon. One thing is for certain: Palestine is now two distinct entities, and the West Bank will certainly soon achieve state status, but Gaza is likely to flounder into nothingness…
What do you think? Your comments and questions are welcome. Hope this Palestinian tutorial helped you understand this mess a little better. Time for a drink….
Gaza Grind, Episode 3: What the Freak is Fatah?
Greetings again Plaid Friends! The Avenger has returned to this tumultuous topic of tremendous trepidation and tribulations—the troubles in Palestine, or what is left of Palestine depending upon your view. We've talked about the territories, I've harangued you about Hamas, so let's now get our freak on with Fatah!
Abbas gets new title — president of state
PLO declares Abbas 'president of State of Palestine'
- #1 Fatah is the largest organization in the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), a multi-party confederation.
- #2 Fatah is a, if not the, major political party in Palestine (like the Democrats or Republicans in the US)
- #3 Fatah is mostly a nationalist party (fighting for an independent state named Palestine) but also has a social network which includes many militant sub-groups, as well as many social/charitable sub-groups (not unlike Hamas).
- #4 Fatah currently completely controls the government of the West Bank, and is recognized internationally as the only government in charge of Palestine in its entirety—in other words, Fatah is being recognized as the only politically legitimate voice of all Palestinian peoples, even if many in Hamas would beg to disagree.
Confusing enough for you? Let's take these one at a time…but a couple definitions to start:
The Palestinian National Authority/Palestinian Authority is the interim government of the Palestinian territories, first headed by headed by Yasser Arafat and now led by Mahmoud Abbas. Basically, it's the 'government' of Palestine, but since Palestine is not an officially recognized sovereign state in the eyes of the world, it's still an 'interim' government. The basic assumption here is that Palestine is in the process of becoming a state eventually, but it's not yet there. Israelis who do not recognize a Palestinian state, always drop the word 'National' and refer to it as the Palestinian Authority. You will see it used both ways in lots of different places.
Meanwhile back at the Bat-cave, the Palestinian Liberation Organization aka the PLO is an umbrella group of a shitload of different political and militant groups originally headed by Yasser Arafat. The PLO started in Egypt in 1964 as a political movement uniting Palestinian Arabs in an effort to create an independent state of Palestine—their main objective has always been an independent Palestine, although in the past it also touted a need for the destruction of the state of Israel for this to happen. For a good portion of its history, the PLO was considered a terrorist organization, and an extremely rich one at that ($8-10 billion in assets). In 1968 Arafat became chairman; received recognition by the United Nations and by Arab states in 1974 as a government in exile; and thus has played a largely political role since the creation of the Palestine National Authority. The Palestine Liberation Organization is considered by the Arab League and by the United Nations to be the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people and it holds a permanent observer seat in the United Nations General Assembly. Now, the story of the PLO is much more fact-packed and complicated than I'm explaining here, but there is one more specific tidbit that you must know about Arafat and the PLO to understand today's Gaza debacle:
***This is critical: Yasser Arafat signed the 'Declaration of Principles' with Israel in 1993 and exchanged mutual renunciations of terrorism with Israel and a mutual recognition between the PLO and Israel, and was allowed to return to the Palestinian territories from exile in Tunisia. What's so important about that? In this letter, Arafat is basically saying that his group will not officially condone any more terrorism, and most importantly recognizes Israel's right to exist. Kind of. Perhaps more factually, he says that the destruction of Israel is no longer a goal or demand of the PLO and by default the Palestinian National Authority. This is why he was allowed to return and head the interim government, and why he became 'legitimate' spokesman for the Palestinians and a 'legitimate' player in the peace process. Why is this so crucial for our story? Because Hamas has not made a similar denouncement of terrorism and recognition of Israel—that's why they are not 'legitimate' players in this game in the eyes of the West.
But wait Plaid Avenger! I thought you were just talking about the PLO! How can you compare the PLO legitimacy with Hamas illegitimacy? I thought this blog was about Fatah! I'm confused!
I know, I know, my friends. I've intentionally led you down a blind alley talking about the PLO so that I wouldn't have to muddle terms. I've left out one big component that you should now be ready to handle: Fatah is indeed a separate political party in Palestine, but it is also the most powerful political party in the PLO! Confused more or less now? (Go back and read this story again if still confused:Still in crisis) Fatah has always been the major stakeholder of power in the PLO; Fatah has more or less controlled the action of the PLO; and what's more, Yasser Arafat was simultaneously the head of the PLO, the head of the Fatah political party, and the head of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA)!
Damn, let's make it more confusing: Mahmoud Abbas, the current President is the PNA took all of Arafat's titles too! He is head of Fatah, head of the PLO, and head of the PNA. Got it yet? Shit! Good! Someone explain it back to me!
The Avenger is usually pretty astute with analogies, but I'm not sure one exists to compare to this situation. But I'll try. It would be something like this: pretend for a minute that George Bush Jr. is the head of the Republican Party. Now pretend that he is simultaneously President of the US. Oops, I keep forgetting that he kind of is….kind of. Finally, pretend that he also is the head of an international coalition of Republicans from across the world who are bound be a single mission…. I don't know, maybe the elimination of all corporate taxes, or perhaps a world-wide country club membership that included a free-golf-for-life clause. Whatever. Hopefully you get my point. Arafat, and now Abbas, have always worn these three hats at the same time: 1)head of the political party (Fatah), 2)head of an international organization in which their political party is the major player (PLO), and 3)head of the government in which their political party controls (Palestine).
So now back to our Fatah story. The Fatah movement—promoting an independent Palestine which would be liberated by the actions of Palestinian Arabs—was founded in 1958 by members of
the Palestinian diaspora (mostly professionals working in the Gulf States who had been refugees in Gaza and had gone on to study in Cairo). This is when Arafat became involved and quickly rose to leadership. As referenced above, Arafat and his Fatah party became the foundation stone of the PLO in 1964. For the following decades, Fatah/PLO provided training to a wide range of militant and insurgent groups, and carried out numerous attacks against Israeli targets in the Middle East and abroad—thus their 'terrorist' status. Fatah became the dominant force in Palestinian politics after the 1967 Six-Day War seriously dismembered the already fractured Palestinian territory.
Since then, Fatah has been the primary voice of the Palestinian plight, both internally but also on the international stage. And I mean THE primary voice. Like 90% of the politicians in Palestine were Fatah folks. However, like I alluded to in the Hamas blog, it is at its core a political party made up of lots of different folks with lots of different views. Some are more worried about social issues, others more militant and concerned only with the intractable Israeli dispute, and yet others who want to seek political solutions to the whole debacle. As time has wore on, many Palestinians have come to view Fatah as largely corrupt internally (it is), and largely incompetent and useless internationally (since there have been virtually no positive movements towards the territorial dispute). Yeah….these guys got troubles.
As such, Fatah has been losing support from the Palestinian masses for years. And the final hammer just dropped: In 2005, Hamas won landslide victories in nearly all the municipalities it contested, and in the January 25, 2006 parliamentary election, Fatah lost its majority in the Palestinian parliament to Hamas, and resigned all cabinet positions, instead assuming the role as the main opposition party.
So where does that leave us? Is it over for Fatah? Not hardly! The turn of events of last summer 
witnessed Hamas literally kicking the Fatah folks out of Gaza—but don't count them out yet! Fatah retaliated by firing all the Hamas officials and taking over sole control of the West Bank. And all this controversy has resulted in widespread international support for Fatah, to the exclusion of Hamas….And you'll have to tune in tomorrow for more analysis on the world's view of these groups, who likes who, who hates who, and how all that ties into the current grinding down of those godforsaken Gazan masses…
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