May 16
Greetings again from Ankara my Plaid Friends! On my way back from Pakistan, I felt the overwhelming urge for some raki and Turkish Delight (the confection has taken such a bad rap since that little lying bastard Edmund wanted it in 'The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe')…aslan sütü and lokum. What a delightful pair to have while in Turkey! I do love the lion's milk! Yeah baby! And Turkey is back on my radar screen again already due to some current events. Dig it:
Turkey stakes a Central Asian claim
US to push Sarkozy on Turkey's EU processBetween Turkey and the EU, two plus two does not necessarily equal four
EU excited and worried by Sarkozy
Now I've chatted about the EU's apprehension for Turkish ascension before on this blog, so I need not go back into those details (see EU turkeys talk turkey with Turkey ). But what I want to blather about today is what I've been telling my classes for years: Turkey is on a pivot point in modern history, and it looks as if a direction is soon to be chosen…if not downright forced on it! What pivot do I speak of? I'm referring to one of two directions Turkey will take to team up with in terms of economies, cultures, and politics. Those two team choices are the EU or Central Asia/Middle East. West or East. Could the choices be made more geographically distinct?
Turkey is a population powerhouse, Turkey is a growing economic power, and Turkey is increasingly a vital hub for the international flow of oil and natural gas. Turkey will be a leader in the 21st century. The question is: of what? Will they be accepted into the EU and embrace the West even more, or will they be snubbed by the EU and turn around and become a power broker of a Central Asian/Middle Eastern coalition?
An Ottoman Empire Part Deux? Seems increasingly likely. Why?
As a very savvy commenter pointed out in a previous blog (see Fuck 'Freedom Fries': France is Freakin' Back, Fools!), the election of anti-EU-enlargement Nicolas Sarkozy in France is very likely to put a huge damper on Turkish movement forward with EU entry. But that French fairy is only the latest nail in the coffin of Turkey's EU talks: Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel is also vehemently opposed to the Turks, and the likely-next-Prime Minister of the UK, Gordon 'Brown Sugar' Brown, may be no proponent of Ankara either. And this 'EU Dream Team' of leaders are all youngish and recently-elected, so they are going to be around for while—which may mean Turkey won't be!
As pointed out numerous times by the Avenger, the US is HUGELY in favor of Turkey staying staunchly in the western sphere of influence, and they are pushing hard for the EU to embrace their Turkish ally. Why would this be? Turkey is a NATO member, and one that has been of central and downright critical importance for the War on Terrorism: Afghan Chapter. The US also sees Turkey as the only successful Islamic democracy in the region to be emulated by its Middle Eastern neighbors, so Uncle Sam is keen on keeping Turkey in their corner of the ring. Simply put, without Turkish help, the war on terrorism in the Middle East and Central Asia becomes seriously hampered, if not outright hamstrung.
The other consideration here is that Turkey is increasingly becoming a pivotal power player in the energy game too. Long story short:
- The EU imports virtually all of its oil and natural gas needs…
- Central Asia has been increasing its output of energy radically in the last decade, with lots more to come…
- Russia has been building an energy empire on which Europe is currently addicted to…
- Energy from Central Asia is transported to the EU thru Russia and Turkey…
- Many in the EU are getting very worried about their over-reliance on Russian energy, which increases Russian geopolitical influence…
- Thus, including Turkey in the EU would shift the energy influence to a country on their own team…
And therefore shutting out Turkey will further shut out strategic ties to their energy sources. Don't sound too smart to me, but whatever. Perhaps the EU will go totally green in the next ten years and never use oil again. Yeah…..right. As of this writing, it appears that the EU fears negative repercussions of Turkish entry in the EU much much much more than it fears losing an ally on the anti-terrorism campaign and an ally in their energy strategy. Tricky business. Tricky business indeed. I wonder if the 'EU Dream Team' will still be glad they excluded the Turks if Turkey turns around and starts to put the energy crunch on them…like the Russians have been.
But watch out! This is what I really want you to see! The Turks are not going to roll over and die if they don't get in the EU, and Central Asia may be where they will re-focus their foreign policy and diplomacy. Why there? Several reasons:
1)Cultural and historic ties—the ethnic group called 'the Turks' are from Central Asia originally, and they share linguistic and religious commonalities with their Asian buddies. Ever wonder how Turkmenistan got its name?
2)As pointed out above, Central Asia is producing a shitload of energy…and a serious percentage of that shitload flows thru Turkey to get to the rest of the world. Turkey would like to see even more flow thru their territory, thus increasing their geopolitical hand while decreasing Russia's—'cause whoever has or controls the oil of the future controls a lot!
3)While Turkey may be looked upon as a poor and backwards stepchild within the EU framework, it would be a true leader of states to their east—being richer, more technologically advanced and more politically stable than virtually any country east of them to China! And speaking of China, Turkey's involvement as a power player in Central Asia would also cut into China's influence as well. The 'Great Game' is back on!
So Europe has got some thinking to do, and Turkey does as well. Many in Turkey are becoming totally disenfranchised with the whole bullshit EU entry process, and many have given up on it already. But that don't mean that they've given up aspirations to be a regional power! Let's watch the Turks carefully this year to see where new relationships may be blossoming…I personally bet that the next President or Prime Minister of Turkey will soon go on a whirlwind tour of Central Asia states trying to sign as many trade deals as he can…but we shall see.
I won't lie to you Turkey: you've got your work cut out for you trying to establish ties in Central Asia, cause the SCO has beat you to the punch. SCO? What the hell is an SCO? The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is not to be messed with! Back the fuck up off the SCO! Maybe I better fly from here to China and tell you a little bit more about these guys in my next blog….
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May 14
Greetings from Pakistan my Plaid Friends. Just popped in to the mountains here in Kashmir to pick up a sweet plaid sweater. Got to love that Kashmir! And of course trouble follows me…big riots broke out in Karachi this weekend, riots which spell big trouble for the most precariously position Paki of them all: my main man Pervez. Check it:
Senior official of Pakistani Supreme Court is killed
Riots in Karachi leave dozens dead
Strikes paralyse Pakistan amid more violence
Musharraf's poll strategy in ruins
Pakistan's Democracy Movement Defies Repression
What happened to our main Pak-man Musharraf? General Pervez Musharraf is also President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan. But make no bones about it, while he may be called President and walk around in a nice suit, he is still the main General and commands the armed forces. Mush took over the government by force in 1999 and has led it ever since. He is a huge US ally (Pakistan is the #3 recipient of US foreign aid), and major player in the fight against global terrorism, but simultaneously is not much loved at home. There have been several assassination attempts, and violent protests always seem to lurk just below the surface of this society. What is the latest turmoil about?
The run-down:
- On March 9th Mush the Man fires the head of Pakistan's Supreme Court, Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, for bad behavior. Was Chaudhry really corrupt and doing questionable things? Plaid sez: "probably." Was he really that much more corrupt than anybody else? Plaid sez: "probably not."
- Ever since, lawyers across the country have staged strikes in a form of protest to Mush's involvement in the judicial branch. These strikes have completely shut down the court system. Many think that Chaudhry was fired solely because he had become an outspoken critic of harsh anti-terrorist activity of the Mush government. Is that true? Plaid sez: "Possibly, but not probably."
- These strikes have now turned into a whole anti-Mush, anti-government, pro-democracy movement across the country, resulting in several big violent blow-ups, the latest being in Karachi over the weekend. Is all of Pakistan rising up in protest? Plaid sez: "Hard to tell as an outsider. I'd say the country is split: maybe 20% avidly pro-Mush, maybe 20% violently anti-Mush, and everybody else is somewhere in-between."
Long story short: Mush is in a mess. I think this guy has got to have the highest stress job on the whole damn planet. Man, I wouldn't wish his position on a broke-dick dog. What am I talking about? Dig this:
Musharraf is trying to pacify the wants and desires of 170 million citizens—that's the 6th biggest population in the world. It's also a devoutly Islamic society, including the whole spectrum of religious views from the mainstream to the seriously extreme. It's a society that has attempted to be a democracy since its inception back in 1947, with less than desirable results—the reason Mush took over the country in 1999 was because of massively widespread government corruption. There are a slew of extremist factions and separatists groups pulling the country apart, especially all around the Afghan border (look up Waziristan, Balochistan, the Taliban—damn, that sounds like a Dr. Seuss book). Mush is trying to keep a lid on terrorist activity in Afghanistan, terrorist activity in Pakistan near the Afghan border, terrorist activity in Kashmir, terrorist activity in India, and of course terrorist activity all throughout Pakistan itself. Damn! Every time a bomb goes off anywhere in Asia, Pakistan takes the heat!
And it gets even worse! In an attempt to keep Pakistan on the list of the 'good' countries, Mush has to suck up to the US and the other players in the 'War on Terrorism' by cracking down as hard as he can in Pakistan—which of course further infuriates the people of Pakistan, which pushes even more of them to embrace extremism. Damn! Talk about a vicious circle! This dude is really between a rock and a hard place! Which brings us back to these current events:
While the Plaid Avenger personally thinks Musharraf is an okay cat, there is no way that he can be considered a truly elected president in a real democracy. Pakistan is in no way, shape, or form a real functioning democracy right now—and maybe its not ever going to be one either. While Mush certainly has international support from other governments, he certainly does not have clear-cut widespread support of the people. That's why this group of lawyers and a fired chief justice are getting so much airplay, as well as inciting the masses. Many see Mush as an authoritarian dictator and Western-stooge, and it's not hard to envision why they think that way. Given his situation, what else can he do? I pose that question to you, readers. Especially if you live in Pakistan.
But know what's really going on here Plaid People: the rest of the planet (particularly the US and India) does not want to see nuclear-armed Pakistan fall into total chaos, anarchy, or even a theocratic state. The other countries of the world will continue to support Musharraf, or even another similar authoritarian leader, in order to keep a lid on the boiling pot we call Pakistan. The US, the EU, and India all continue to rally around the Mush government because they see no other viable options right now, or even in the foreseeable future. It gets tricky for true democracies to show support for 'fake' democracies like Pakistan—and now perhaps you can see why they do it anyway.
Poor Musharraf. Every single thing this guy does infuriates a shitload of people. And it don't look like things are going to get any better for him, or his country, for some time to come.
My Mush advice: keep the kevlar on my friend.
Apr 11
The Plaid Avenger strikes! Time to enlighten but not frighten. Today's topic: Afghanistan must seriously be going to hell in a hand-basket, and the feeble US news agencies, as well as the US government, just aren't telling you shit! Check it:
More SAS to take on Taliban
Two more Canadians reportedly killed in Afghanistan
Australia to double Afghan force
US extends troops' tour of duty
Plaid people! This is serious shit! The government and the media are all focuses intently on watching destruction in Iraq, but everyone seems to have forgotten that the US/NATO invaded Afghanistan many, many moons ago too, and the situation is getting worse! WTF??? AS far as the Plaid is concerned, Iraq is in a full state of civil war, and no amount of US money, soldiers, or bombs is going to stop that process now. It sucks to be sure, but I just call them like I see them.
But the bigger point is this: Iraq has become such a political hot potato in US culture, that everyone has conveniently forgot that there is a still very much active war against the Taliban in Afghanistan….and the US/NATO is losing that one too!!! The US, along with all of its staunchest NATO allies, is quietly increasing the numbers of troops that are being sent to the land-locked, land-mined, dusty desert of Central Asia. And they ain't being sent to set up circus tents either. Given that the US military is already over-extended in Iraq, the fact the they are putting ever-more-scarce troops in Afghanistan can only mean one thing: bad shit is happening, and it's libel to get much, much worse.
The world somehow assumed that the Taliban were beat, done, and gone a few years ago…but SURPRISE! They are back, and in full fighting force. The above headlines reference not only increases in troop numbers, but also more frequent deadly attacks on NATO forces there—the Canadians alone have lost 6 to 8 men in the last several days. How is it that the Taliban are regrouping and gaining support? For the very reasons that they came to power in the first damn place!
The Taliban are a hardcore, extremist, religious fundamental group that essentially want to recreate the 11th century again here in the 21st, and that sounds shitty to folks like us in the rich world. But you've got to understand that folks in an impoverished, chaotic, lawless, and shit-filled situation (like Afghanistan) think that returning to the 11st century may be A-okay! Why not? The 21st century sucks for them so far! But seriously, the extremism of the Taliban did bring law an order to a chaotic, warlord dominated state; the Taliban did bring an organized and uncorrupted government (fucked up, but not corrupted) to Afghanistan; and the Taliban—yes, the Taliban—even decreased the amount of opium being produced in the state.
While the Plaid Avenger still personally despises the Taliban because of their totalitarian tactics and utter lack of respect for human rights, I at least understand why they were successful in coming to power the first time, and why they seem to be having a resurgence here as of late. Do you now see why? Because the state totally sucks for most people man! From warlord-dominated chaos and poverty to NATO-dominated chaos and poverty, folks in this country have not had much to hope for. And to be honest, the only entity that has ever had any success in controlling this state for even a limited time has been….can you guess?….yep, that's right: the Taliban.
Let's get one thing straight Plaid People: I think they suck. The Plaid Avenger fights for justice, human rights, human dignity, and human equality, and thus the Taliban is no friend of mine. But I want you to understand the dilemma of the people in Afghanistan, and indeed of the NATO forces in Afghanistan as well. Shits gotta change. Just trying to kill the bad guys isn't enough anymore. Because as the US/NATO forces have found out, there is no killing of all the bad guys…they will never get them all. 'The West' has got to change its attitude about invading countries to simply kill bad guys. It hasn't worked, its not working, and it's not going to ever work.
Do I have all the answers about how to do it right? Nope. I am simply one slightly tipsy superhero who hopes that someone in the US state Department, or the NATO command, or at the UN figures out that it takes more than bombs and bullets to win these battles. In Afghanistan, life sucks, everyone is impoverished, most are hungry, the economy is non-existent, locals are dying, NATO troops are dying, and opium production has just reaching an all-time record high (pun intended), while the damn country is being occupied by the US.
WTF? How is killing a bunch of renegade desert bandits going to change any of that? Plaid Avenger Afghan 3-month forecast: Look for it to be a long, hot summer of death and destruction, with highs in the upper 110's…and highs in the opium fields too.
Write your Congressman. Write NATO. Join the French Foreign Legion and invade the Vatican. Whatever it takes to make a change.
Party on
-PA
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