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Permanent Possessors of Power: the Fabulous 5!

• World
• International Organizations
• East Asia-Pacific
• European Eurasia
• The Americas

Forget the Fantastic 4, you want to know about the Fabulous 5! Greetings from the New York City my plaid friends! From the United Nations Headquarters to be exact. And there are big things are going on in the Big Apple, not the least of which is the Avenger knocking back a dozen big-ass Manhattans—my mixed drink of choice here in the big city. Hey, the town's so nice they named it twice, so I have to drink twice as much when I party here! But I digress as usual….While this weekend's meeting will cover many tipples and topics, I just wanted to give you a quick rant about the UN's most powerful component: the UN Permanent Security Council. Check out these stories related to this group's recent activity:

Security Council reps discuss Iranian sanctions

Security Council Reform Resolution Fuels German Hope for Seat

Signs of shift in Iran stand-off

U.N. to revisit Security Council growth

U.N. Security Council has imposed an arms embargo on Sudan

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is the main organ of the UN charged with maintaining peace and security among countries. While lots of other committees do lots of other shit, all that shit only amounts to recommendations that are made to countries of the world. However, the Security Council has the power to make decisions which member governments must carry out under the UN Charter—a charter which all members states have agreed to. Starting to get the picture here? If the Security Council passes a resolution, it must be enforced…by force if necessary!

In example: if a country on the Security Council proposes a resolution to bomb Burma, and that resolution passes, then the UN has to act on it, and Burma will be bombed. That is an extreme scenario, but you get the point. In 1950, it was just such a UN resolution that led to the invasion of South Korea by (US-led) UN forces to counter the hostile North Korean takeover that we now call the Korean War.

But let's look at the mechanics of how this shit actually works. The Security Council is made up of 15 member states, consisting of five permanent seats and ten temporary seats. Ah! Now we finally see the 'permanent' part of this group, and the reason for this blog. The permanent five are the US, the UK, China, Russia, and France. The ten temporary seats are held for two-year terms with member states voted in by the UN General Assembly, and broken down roughly on a regional basis (i.e. like 2 from Africa, 2 from Latin America, 2 from Middle East, etc.). So those 10 temporary seats are rotating, usually about half of them rotate out every year.

But the big 5! That is where all the action really is! Why? Because the Permanent Security Council members have this one all important distinction: veto power! Any one of the 5 permanent members can stop any resolution dead in its tracks. Russia or France or China can kill anything the US or Great Britain puts forward, and the US can crush anything the Russians or Chinese want to pass. It's just that simple. And that's what creates all the drama!

Why so much drama? Because for the UN to actually send troops or aid to any part of the world requires a resolution from the council. See, the entire Security Council votes on all issues, with each country getting one vote. For any resolution to pass, it must have at least 9 'yes' votes, and zero 'veto' votes from any of the permanent 5. And the big permanent 5 don't always see eye to eye on what the UN should be doing, because they all have different allies and strategic partners and motivations to consider. So to keep our example going, the US would actually love to pass a resolution to send in troops to Burma to straighten that shit government out, but everyone knows the Chinese would veto it in a hot-shit second because the Chinese are big buddies of the Burmese regime.

Need another example? Just think back to the lead-up to the current US invasion of Iraq. That is a US invasion, not a UN invasion, precisely because of the dynamics of the Permanent Security Council. The US was working damn hard to get the Council to pass a resolution to invade Iraq, but the Frenchies outright vetoed it, so the Ruskies didn't even have to (which would have been likely). Thus, french fries became 'freedom fries', but you know that story already…

To keep it even more real, consider the current Iranian situation as referenced in the stories above. The US and the UK have for some time wanted to pass some resolutions to beat down the Iranians, but haven't really bothered because the Frenchies and Russians would veto it. Now with Nick Sarkozy and the Frenchies coming over to Team USA, the sides are starting to get stacked in their favor….BUT the Russians are big buddies with the Iranians and will still likely veto any resolution that calls for military action against Iran. Can you dig it?

Just as a side note: China typically votes against any resolution which involves military action against any country. They are big fans of sovereignty, and as such think that only some whack-ass extreme behavior by a state would warrant the use of UN force. What wusses. Actually, they are hesitant to violate any other countries sovereignty mostly because they don't want anyone to invade theirs. They just don't want to piss anyone off.

And you should know that a country can actually decide not to vote at all—which happens quite a bit with the Chinese. They might not like a resolution, but if everyone else wants it, they will just not vote, thereby saving face. To keep our Iranian example: if the Russians eventually agree to some use of force against Iran, China will not want to stand in the way of a resolution that everyone wants, so they will abstain from the vote….so they won't piss off the US, UK and France, and at the same time can tell the Iranians "Hey, don't be pissed at us! We didn't vote for it! Send your terrorist to their countries, not ours!" See how this shit works?

To finish, you just got to know your Permanent Security Council 5, and how their behavior in large part determines the actions of the entire UN. Many folks want to expand the Permanent Security Council membership and change some of the rules to better represent the world and end the predictable stalemates. Check the stories above for activity on that front…and know this: Germany will likely join soon, as they already are invited to virtually every high-level talk that the Council holds. You will often see news stories reference meetings like this: The Permanent 5 + Germany.

Hmmm….Germany….isn't it about time for Octoberfest celebrations to begin?

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APEC: a Peck of Pickled Pacific Presidents

• World
• International Organizations
• East Asia-Pacific

Ha! Say that shit seven times swiftly in Sydney! It's the Plaid Avenger coming at you again from 'Down Under' reporting live at the APEC meeting to bring all my plaid friends up to speed on what the hell is going on n the world. The meeting is still hot, and the booze is flowing as fast as fabricated vocabulary from George Bush's lips…and I have to tell you, that guy can still do a serious inverted keg hit! Somebody told him that we were in the Southern Hemisphere, so he thought we all had to drink upside-down in order to get hammered! Dudes! This guy can party outside of the beltway!

But I digress as usual when I start getting buzzed with the Bushes… Today's rant will be a quickie—I just want you to know what the hell APEC is, so dig this:

Fences, foes and farces: world view of APEC

APEC Nations Wrestle With Climate Change

Climate Change, Nuclear Power Central to APEC Meeting

APEC? OPEC? Thanks Austria!

There's more to APEC than USA

APEC 2007 Homepage

APEC stands for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation—famously referred to as 4 adjectives in search of a noun. Ha! Too hilarious! And many think the grouping is just 21 countries in search of a mission. And this year's meeting in Sydney, Australia doesn't seem to be helping clarify what this group is all about. But let's see if the Avenger can sort out some of the details for you….

APEC consists of most…but not all…of the countries that border the vast Pacific Ocean. Hmmmm….let's see, we've got Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong (which is China), Taiwan (which is China), Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Thailand, United States, and Viet Nam. These entities are referred to as "Member Economies" which stresses their main motivation to be in this club—its all about the money! Mo' money, mo' money, mo' money!

So how they make mo' money at an APEC meeting? APEC is like many other economic unions across the plaid planet—like the WTO, NAFTA, the EU, and ASEAN just to name a few—whose primary goal is to get countries to sit down at the table once a year and figure out how to better increase economic trade amongst them. And how do they do that? By lowering trade barriers like tariffs (a fancy word for taxes), lowering barriers to international investment, and facilitating each other as much as possible in order to move goods, services, and money…we here in the real world refer to this as cooperation. So you have countries cutting deals and trying to work together in order for shit to move more freely economically….so like Thailand will tell Mexico, " Hey, we won't put any import taxes on your tequila if you promise to not put any import taxes on our pineapples," and Mexico would be like, "Que? Si senor, that sheeet sounds sweet!"

However, you need to be aware of this: everything that goes down at an APEC meeting is non-binding. Huh? What the hell does that mean? That means that none of these countries during any of these talks is actually signing anything resembling a contract. There is no bound charter, or set of rules or regulations, or laws or by-laws. These 21 countries just meet once a year to rap about things informally and come to a 'gentleman's agreement' about how to work together best in the coming year. This is NOT like the WTO, or NATFTA, or even the EU—those clubs all have legit constitutions or binding contracts or laws which all the member states agree to follow when they join. For instance, the WTO…which stands for the World Trade Organization…has almost all the exact same free-trade goals as APEC, but they also have laws which everyone agrees to follow. And if Thailand taxes tequila after they promised not to in the WTO, then Mexico can sue them via WTO law. Not so for APEC, which is non-binding.

And that leads us to the mystery and mystic of this grouping of countries. Why would these guys get together, when there are already so many other international organizations dealing with trade? Here's why: this is a hot zone of trade on our planet. In fact the hottest! The Atlantic used to be the 'in' ocean for the last 500 years…what with all the explorers and colonist and trade and movement between Europe and the US. But the Atlantic heyday is over my friends, and the Pacific is now kicking ass! With the US as a major consumer, and the rise of China as a superpower, along with places like Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand already being industrial mega-producers, the Pacific Ocean is witnessing more international trade than the history of humans has ever known! Damn! Its crazy!

I know you've never heard this phrase yet, so let me be the first to spring it on you: we are in the Pacific Century. You heard it here first. More action will take place across this ocean than anywhere else on the planet in the coming decades. And that's why this group was formed. The 21 APEC countries have 2.6 billion people in them, account for 60% of world GDP, and currently do over half of all the world's trade between them. Damn. That's a lot a vig. And its growing fast.

APEC was actually invented and in Australia back in 1989, so it has come full circle with them hosting this year's event. Go figure: Australia can claim credit on two inventions now: APEC and the boomerang. No wonder they are so rich. NOT. Screw you Russell Crow! I'll tell you what you can do with that boomerang you asshole! Oops…sorry…that guy really pisses me off. And I'm not the only one getting hot and bothered down here…some countries are starting to get miffed about the events here in Sydney….

Specifically, John Howard (you know who he is know, right?) and George Bush have been using the APEC forum to push their version of an anti-global warming agenda: an agenda which calls for poorer/developing countries like China and India to reduce CO2 emissions just like the rich countries are going to. I won't get into right now, but this is really pissing off the Chinese and other developing states. Also, as part of their program, Howard & Bush are stressing the need to use nuclear power for energy generation, as well as pushing for more pro-democracy stuff within the member states. Again, pissing of China and Vietnam…and maybe even Russia.

The main point I want to make is that many things being talked about this year are not related to economics or trade, and this is blurring the lines a bit. China and Russia didn't come to this forum to hear about global fucking warming man! What gives? Who knows my friends, I'm just giving you the straight talk here in Sydney. APEC, at least for this year, has become an avenue for the US (and its little brother Australia) to vent about many other non-money related themes.

We'll just have to see how this plays out, and we also get to look forward to the group picture that always concludes the APEC summit. AS witnessed in the pics above, it is taken in some sort of customary dress of the host country, and usually ends up looking ultra-gay! I can't wait to see it! And to give Crow the smack-down….I'll tell you how that turns out too. As for now, party in plaid….

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No Hangover from this Party: 6-Party Talks Actually Working!!!

• World
• International Organizations
• East Asia-Pacific
• European Eurasia
• The Americas

Sweetness! I love a good party….and I love a great party even more! And when the party is the 6-Party Talks, well, I think you know that the Avenger is going to be getting his drink on… times 6! To understand the plaid world in which we all co-habitate in my friends, you really must know what, or who, or where, the 6-Party is. And the party just got it going on over the last weekend, with some very interesting results. In fact, I have been partying in Pyongyang playing power ping-pong while getting my drink on with a Chinese panda named Ling-Long! Ha! Top that on a Labor Day weekend! So what the hell is this Korean party all about? Check it:

US Says North Korea to End Nuclear Program

No Form Date to Take North Korea Off Terror List

North Korea Close to Being Struck from Terror List

One Less on the Axis of Evil?

N Korea Asks to Leave Axis of Evil, Cites "Creative Differences" (this is satire, but its good!)

So who the hell gets the invite to the 6-Party? I'm glad you asked. The sweet 6 are the US, China, North Korea, South Korea, Russia, and Japan. And what's the party all about? Just as easy to answer: the goal of the party is to find a peaceful resolution to the security concerns raised by North Korea attempting to build a nuclear program. Nuclear bombs specifically, which of course always worries anybody in the world that doesn't want to get fucking blown up. And especially the countries that are right next door to North Korea which would be the first to be targeted. And quite frankly, everybody and their Asian brother is worried about North Korea getting anything close to a nuclear warhead, since their country is run by a complete fucking lunatic.

Which lunatic? That would be Kim Jong-il. The freak. Not to be too harsh on the guy, but I generally refer to him as the Michael Jackson of the Korean peninsula. He lives in a palace while his people starve to death, but is surrounded by military whackos and court jesters who tell him he's a god and that everybody loves him. Shit, the dude is totally clueless about reality….much like Jackson, he is just living in his isolated Neverland Ranch, propped up by admirers that tell him everything is great. Unfortunately, Kim il-Jong's 'ranch' happens to be a country, and he happens to be the head of it. And Michael Jackson's nose is real. Just like his skin. Yeah right. Fucking freaks the both of them. But I digress as usual…

So the US, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and even China are not really keen on this goober or any of his military advisers acquiring nuclear weapons. So much so that all the countries have been working in earnest for years to get this group of freaks to relinquish development of their nuclear program, pull their heads out of their asses, and join the rest of the real world. The US has been so insistent about it that they put North Korea in their famous 'Axis of Evil' category along with Iraq and Iran.

Of course Iraq is now off the list since its occupied by the US…. oh, and no weapons were actually found anyway. And now folks around the world are debating about what to do to Iran and their nuclear program. But there really has never been any debate about the North Korea situation: everyone thinks they are nuts and all surrounding countries just want them to knock off with the damn shenanigans! Too bad whacko North Korea! You are on your own! Not even China wants to put their neck out for those freaks.

And apparently that's why the 6-Party talks are working. Everyone has been putting the heat on the Koreans to dismantle their nuclear program. And it looks like it worked! The stories above reference that just last weekend the North Korean regime has agreed to not only stop production of nuclear materials, but to completely dismantle their program by the end of the year! Damn! That's big news! But why would they nutty Northerners agree to this at this particular time? Why not earlier? Or why agree at all?

Here's why: they suck. The North Korean economy is non-existent. The people are starving to death, and winter is fast approaching which will result in many more folks starving to death. North Korea just got the shit kicked out of them by major floods all summer. Their already meager crops are going to suck ass this year. People are trying to literally haul ass out of the country by the thousands—it has gotten so bad in the last year that the Chinese have posted troops all over their border with North Korea to stem the tide of immigrants trying to get the hell out of there. Seriously, the place is a total joke. And everyone in the leadership is starting to realize that they can't keep this total sham of a country afloat for much longer.

Call in Michael Jackson! Maybe he can lull the North Korean masses into submission by singing 'Beat It' a million times! Shit, the whole damn place already looks like a scene from the fucking 'Thriller' video. Dude! I would pay serious money to see Kim il-Jong do the moonwalk!

But anyway, North Korea can no longer afford to piss off all its neighbors, especially when all those neighbors [as well as the US] are going to be providing them with all sorts of food aid, fuel aid, and financial aid as incentive to give up the nukes. And the Plaid Avenger has always been convinced that the quest for nukes by the North Koreans has been simply about having a card to play in international politics…in other words a leveraging tool for the world to take the North Koreans seriously. Now that the North Korean position is a total joke and the country is nearing collapse, giving up the nukes appears to be the only face-saving device which allows Kim and his funky bunch to get international assistance while keeping their rule—and the entire country—intact.

You'll notice from the stories above that as soon as the 6-Party ended on Sunday, the North Koreans ran out to the press and announced that the US was normalizing relations with them, and taking them off the 'Axis of Evil'/terrorist list. What a bunch of boneheads! The US immediately renounced that claim, and has instead said that they will be working towards patching up relations with the Koreans, and possibly taking them off the 'terror list' once the nuclear plants are actually totally dismantled. Shit! Those whack-ass North Koreans can't even keep the story strait for 5 damn minutes.

BUT! Whatever the story is, it is a promising turn of events for the US, South Korea, Japan, and the entire world. Promising for the North Koreans because they will undoubtedly get shit tons of aid, just when they need it most. Perhaps they will actually give up all efforts to make nukes. Perhaps the US will take them off the terror list. Perhaps the Korean peninsula will start a re-unification process if this goober regime opens up a little. Perhaps Michael Jackson and Kim il-Jong will become fast friends…and then lovers… Who knows what the rosy future holds?

And repercussions outside the Korean peninsula? There are plenty, but only one worth mentioning, and it's a doozie! And its also in the news on the same day, which compounds its importance! What the smell am I referring to? I'm talking about Iran, and how the 6-Party is going to cause a huge fucking hangover for them, even though they weren't invited to the crib! Dig this:

Iran Meets Key Target in Nuclear Program

Long story short, just as North Korea is renouncing nukes, Iran is bragging that they are fast developing them. Damn! Its like those guys are absolutely determined to piss off the world! I'll deal with the Iranian nuke program later, but know this for now: with North Korea out of the picture, the 'Axis of Evil' is fast turning into the 'Axis of One' aka 'the Only Evil One Left'. Iran was already getting plenty of attention for its nuclear activities; with North Korea going legit, all eyes of the world will now be sternly focused of what the hell Iran is now going to do. Shit! IS is getting hot in here or what?

So know this my fine American friends: know what the 6-Party is all about; know the Kim-il really is pretty ill—in his head; know that North Korea is going straight and may rejoin the rest of us here on planet earth soon. And know why this is turning up the heat on Iran….

Party in Plaid in Pyongyang!

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You Gotsta’ Know the SCO!!!

• World
• International Organizations
• South Asia & Central Asia

Greetings from Shanghai my Plaid Friends! Stopped in from Ankara so I could sniff around to see what shenanigans that savvy Shanghai Six are up to. What? You don't know who the Shanghai Six are? Hell, I've been following these guys since they were a little bitty newborn Shanghai Five! Perhaps you know them by their newer, streamlined cool nickname, the SCO: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization? What? Still drawing a blank? Oh my friends, if you want to understand what's going on in the world, you better know your SCO. Here, try these on for size:

Shanghai plan to fight extremism (old school story-check the date)

Shanghai grouping moves centre stage

SCO joint military exercises to be held in Russia in 2007

Don't play this Great Game

Pakistan and the SCO

Iran urges Central Asian bloc to counter West

Who the hell are these guys? The current SCO/Shanghai Six are: China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The Asian giants on either side of a smattering of central Asian states—a big "Stan" sandwich! Ha! That is too damn good! I'll have a side of fries with my Stan Sandwich! And speaking of sides, there are some of those too: Iran, Afghanistan, Mongolia, India and Pakistan have all requested and obtained observer status—which means they get to come to the meetings and hang out with the cool kids in the SCO clubhouse. I wonder if they have a secret hand shake? A shake with my fries and Stan-wich…oh, I'm too much today!

But I digress…

What the hell are they up to? This club was formed from the ashes of the demise of the USSR, and their original mission consisted of curbing "extremism, terrorism and separatism"—and let's call a spade a spade here: their talking about Islamic extremism and Islamic terrorism, and separatism of any damn color or flavor. Some of these states are totalitarian in nature, others are one-party states, and some are fledgling democracies, so you can probably figure out very quickly how they deal with extremism, terrorism and separatism. 'Iron fisted' may be too strong a term, but let's just say that the use of force to quell internal troubles is usually in the top three responses, if not the number one. In other words, China and Russia have no qualms about Tajikistan or Uzbekistan suppressing internal dissent with force—as long as its guised under the 'stabilizing security' heading. But that's not what I really want to blather about. It's this:

Security may have been the foundation block, but my oh my, they are a long way from home now! The SCO is one of the fastest growing clubs on the planet, mostly growing in terms of their mission statement. Now they conduct joint military exercises (hmmm…kind of like an Asian NATO), are signing all sorts of trade pacts (hmmm…kind of like an Asian EU), and there is been a fluttering of talk in the last six months about the SCO forming a giant natural gas cartel to stabilize market outputs and prices (hmmm…kind of like an Asian OPEC).

Wow! That is potent stuff! The fact that Vladimir Putin and several others completely dismissed the Asian OPEC idea publicly means to me that they are actually seriously considering it behind closed doors. These guys have terrible poker faces! If they really had no desire to build a natural gas coalition, they would have pretended to do it just to scare the shit out of everybody. Like oil is to the Middle East, natural gas is to Russia and Central Asia—in that they have the lion's share of the world's reserves, and could easily use it for price-fixing and political advantage. I look for that gas activity to start discreetly building next year—pun intended.

The 'security/military' maneuvers are very interesting as well, since they are the largest of their kind that the world has ever known. I'm not sure why no one has pointed that out. China has the biggest manned military on the planet. And Russia has the second biggest arsenal after the US, so you're talking a seriously powerful group of folks from a strategic standpoint. And don't start stock-piling for WW3; I am in no way shape of form suggesting that this group is planning anything offensively. Quite the contrary! I am suggesting that much like NATO, they are setting themselves up as an 'un-attackable' group. Many are already calling the SCO the 'anti-Western' option. Hmmm…Interesting shit for sure.

Their trade activity is getting hot too, as most countries want to get in on the trade block action. That's why Iran, Pakistan, India and Mongolia wanted observer status, and I'm assuming they will all take full-member status if it's ever offered to them. Everybody wants a piece of that SCO pie! Japan too has to pay attention to the action, since so much of their energy and other imports flows from the continent. Others will follow, but Russia and China have already vowed that unlike the EU, growth will be slow and controlled no matter what the future of the SCO holds. Those bastards are as patient as stones when it comes to foreign policy!

Lastly, I'll point this out: the US is very unhappy about the SCO. Why? The SCO is definitely a threat to US power in the region. Def. Def. Def. The SCO has already pressured its member countries into forcing out some US military bases, and has openly stated that all US military installations should be gone in the near future. The SCO as the Asian NATO gives many other countries a viable option to team up with in the 21^st century…an option that is not US based, backed, or controlled. In fact, you should really know this: the US has asked for observer status to the SCO for years, and been refused!!! The SCO won't let Uncle Sam even hang out in the clubhouse! Damn, Unc is getting pissed!

Russia and China's ties with Iran through the SCO are also irksome for the US—it's why Russia and China continue to vote down tough sanctions against Iran in the UN Permanent Security Council. Doh! Unc is getting more pissed!

And the gas? Don't even get me started with the gas! The US and Europe will be shitting themselves if an OPEC-like gas coalition gets formed—pun intended again! As the biggest consumers of both oil and natural gas, the US and Europe are likely to be strung up by the energy balls in the coming century, because Asia's got it all!

Damn! That SCO is one to watch my friends! But you won't read about it in the US press, because they are totally clueless. Even Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert can't help you like the Plaid Avenger can when it comes to international intrigue!

Party on! Shanghai-style!

-PA

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Eurasian Persuasion: Ejected by EU? Slide into Central Asia!

• World
• International Organizations
• European Eurasia
• South Asia & Central Asia

Greetings again from Ankara my Plaid Friends! On my way back from Pakistan, I felt the overwhelming urge for some raki and Turkish Delight (the confection has taken such a bad rap since that little lying bastard Edmund wanted it in 'The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe')…aslan sütü and lokum. What a delightful pair to have while in Turkey! I do love the lion's milk! Yeah baby! And Turkey is back on my radar screen again already due to some current events. Dig it:

Turkey stakes a Central Asian claim
US to push Sarkozy on Turkey's EU processBetween Turkey and the EU, two plus two does not necessarily equal four
EU excited and worried by Sarkozy

Now I've chatted about the EU's apprehension for Turkish ascension before on this blog, so I need not go back into those details (see EU turkeys talk turkey with Turkey ). But what I want to blather about today is what I've been telling my classes for years: Turkey is on a pivot point in modern history, and it looks as if a direction is soon to be chosen…if not downright forced on it! What pivot do I speak of? I'm referring to one of two directions Turkey will take to team up with in terms of economies, cultures, and politics. Those two team choices are the EU or Central Asia/Middle East. West or East. Could the choices be made more geographically distinct?

Turkey is a population powerhouse, Turkey is a growing economic power, and Turkey is increasingly a vital hub for the international flow of oil and natural gas. Turkey will be a leader in the 21^st century. The question is: of what? Will they be accepted into the EU and embrace the West even more, or will they be snubbed by the EU and turn around and become a power broker of a Central Asian/Middle Eastern coalition?

An Ottoman Empire Part Deux? Seems increasingly likely. Why?

As a very savvy commenter pointed out in a previous blog (see Fuck 'Freedom Fries': France is Freakin' Back, Fools!), the election of anti-EU-enlargement Nicolas Sarkozy in France is very likely to put a huge damper on Turkish movement forward with EU entry. But that French fairy is only the latest nail in the coffin of Turkey's EU talks: Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel is also vehemently opposed to the Turks, and the likely-next-Prime Minister of the UK, Gordon 'Brown Sugar' Brown, may be no proponent of Ankara either. And this 'EU Dream Team' of leaders are all youngish and recently-elected, so they are going to be around for while—which may mean Turkey won't be!

As pointed out numerous times by the Avenger, the US is HUGELY in favor of Turkey staying staunchly in the western sphere of influence, and they are pushing hard for the EU to embrace their Turkish ally. Why would this be? Turkey is a NATO member, and one that has been of central and downright critical importance for the War on Terrorism: Afghan Chapter. The US also sees Turkey as the only successful Islamic democracy in the region to be emulated by its Middle Eastern neighbors, so Uncle Sam is keen on keeping Turkey in their corner of the ring. Simply put, without Turkish help, the war on terrorism in the Middle East and Central Asia becomes seriously hampered, if not outright hamstrung.

The other consideration here is that Turkey is increasingly becoming a pivotal power player in the energy game too. Long story short:

• The EU imports virtually all of its oil and natural gas needs…
• Central Asia has been increasing its output of energy radically in the last decade, with lots more to come…
• Russia has been building an energy empire on which Europe is currently addicted to…
• Energy from Central Asia is transported to the EU thru Russia and Turkey…
• Many in the EU are getting very worried about their over-reliance on Russian energy, which increases Russian geopolitical influence…
• Thus, including Turkey in the EU would shift the energy influence to a country on their own team…

And therefore shutting out Turkey will further shut out strategic ties to their energy sources. Don't sound too smart to me, but whatever. Perhaps the EU will go totally green in the next ten years and never use oil again. Yeah…..right. As of this writing, it appears that the EU fears negative repercussions of Turkish entry in the EU much much much more than it fears losing an ally on the anti-terrorism campaign and an ally in their energy strategy. Tricky business. Tricky business indeed. I wonder if the 'EU Dream Team' will still be glad they excluded the Turks if Turkey turns around and starts to put the energy crunch on them…like the Russians have been.

But watch out! This is what I really want you to see! The Turks are not going to roll over and die if they don't get in the EU, and Central Asia may be where they will re-focus their foreign policy and diplomacy. Why there? Several reasons:

1)Cultural and historic ties—the ethnic group called 'the Turks' are from Central Asia originally, and they share linguistic and religious commonalities with their Asian buddies. Ever wonder how Turkmenistan got its name?
2)As pointed out above, Central Asia is producing a shitload of energy…and a serious percentage of that shitload flows thru Turkey to get to the rest of the world. Turkey would like to see even more flow thru their territory, thus increasing their geopolitical hand while decreasing Russia's—'cause whoever has or controls the oil of the future controls a lot!
3)While Turkey may be looked upon as a poor and backwards stepchild within the EU framework, it would be a true leader of states to their east—being richer, more technologically advanced and more politically stable than virtually any country east of them to China! And speaking of China, Turkey's involvement as a power player in Central Asia would also cut into China's influence as well. The 'Great Game' is back on!

So Europe has got some thinking to do, and Turkey does as well. Many in Turkey are becoming totally disenfranchised with the whole bullshit EU entry process, and many have given up on it already. But that don't mean that they've given up aspirations to be a regional power! Let's watch the Turks carefully this year to see where new relationships may be blossoming…I personally bet that the next President or Prime Minister of Turkey will soon go on a whirlwind tour of Central Asia states trying to sign as many trade deals as he can…but we shall see.

I won't lie to you Turkey: you've got your work cut out for you trying to establish ties in Central Asia, cause the SCO has beat you to the punch. SCO? What the hell is an SCO? The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is not to be messed with! Back the fuck up off the SCO! Maybe I better fly from here to China and tell you a little bit more about these guys in my next blog….

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