The World's Plaidiest News Source
2007
May
16
Greetings again from Ankara my Plaid Friends! On my way back from Pakistan, I felt the overwhelming urge for some raki and Turkish Delight (the confection has taken such a bad rap since that little lying bastard Edmund wanted it in 'The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe')…aslan sütü and lokum. What a delightful pair to have while in Turkey! I do love the lion's milk! Yeah baby! And Turkey is back on my radar screen again already due to some current events. Dig it:
Turkey stakes a Central Asian claim
US to push Sarkozy on Turkey's EU processBetween Turkey and the EU, two plus two does not necessarily equal four
EU excited and worried by Sarkozy
Now I've chatted about the EU's apprehension for Turkish ascension before on this blog, so I need not go back into those details (see EU turkeys talk turkey with Turkey ). But what I want to blather about today is what I've been telling my classes for years: Turkey is on a pivot point in modern history, and it looks as if a direction is soon to be chosen…if not downright forced on it! What pivot do I speak of? I'm referring to one of two directions Turkey will take to team up with in terms of economies, cultures, and politics. Those two team choices are the EU or Central Asia/Middle East. West or East. Could the choices be made more geographically distinct?
Turkey is a population powerhouse, Turkey is a growing economic power, and Turkey is increasingly a vital hub for the international flow of oil and natural gas. Turkey will be a leader in the 21st century. The question is: of what? Will they be accepted into the EU and embrace the West even more, or will they be snubbed by the EU and turn around and become a power broker of a Central Asian/Middle Eastern coalition?
An Ottoman Empire Part Deux? Seems increasingly likely. Why?
As a very savvy commenter pointed out in a previous blog (see Fuck 'Freedom Fries': France is Freakin' Back, Fools!), the election of anti-EU-enlargement Nicolas Sarkozy in France is very likely to put a huge damper on Turkish movement forward with EU entry. But that French fairy is only the latest nail in the coffin of Turkey's EU talks: Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel is also vehemently opposed to the Turks, and the likely-next-Prime Minister of the UK, Gordon 'Brown Sugar' Brown, may be no proponent of Ankara either. And this 'EU Dream Team' of leaders are all youngish and recently-elected, so they are going to be around for while—which may mean Turkey won't be!
As pointed out numerous times by the Avenger, the US is HUGELY in favor of Turkey staying staunchly in the western sphere of influence, and they are pushing hard for the EU to embrace their Turkish ally. Why would this be? Turkey is a NATO member, and one that has been of central and downright critical importance for the War on Terrorism: Afghan Chapter. The US also sees Turkey as the only successful Islamic democracy in the region to be emulated by its Middle Eastern neighbors, so Uncle Sam is keen on keeping Turkey in their corner of the ring. Simply put, without Turkish help, the war on terrorism in the Middle East and Central Asia becomes seriously hampered, if not outright hamstrung.
The other consideration here is that Turkey is increasingly becoming a pivotal power player in the energy game too. Long story short:
- The EU imports virtually all of its oil and natural gas needs…
- Central Asia has been increasing its output of energy radically in the last decade, with lots more to come…
- Russia has been building an energy empire on which Europe is currently addicted to…
- Energy from Central Asia is transported to the EU thru Russia and Turkey…
- Many in the EU are getting very worried about their over-reliance on Russian energy, which increases Russian geopolitical influence…
- Thus, including Turkey in the EU would shift the energy influence to a country on their own team…
And therefore shutting out Turkey will further shut out strategic ties to their energy sources. Don't sound too smart to me, but whatever. Perhaps the EU will go totally green in the next ten years and never use oil again. Yeah…..right. As of this writing, it appears that the EU fears negative repercussions of Turkish entry in the EU much much much more than it fears losing an ally on the anti-terrorism campaign and an ally in their energy strategy. Tricky business. Tricky business indeed. I wonder if the 'EU Dream Team' will still be glad they excluded the Turks if Turkey turns around and starts to put the energy crunch on them…like the Russians have been.
But watch out! This is what I really want you to see! The Turks are not going to roll over and die if they don't get in the EU, and Central Asia may be where they will re-focus their foreign policy and diplomacy. Why there? Several reasons:
1)Cultural and historic ties—the ethnic group called 'the Turks' are from Central Asia originally, and they share linguistic and religious commonalities with their Asian buddies. Ever wonder how Turkmenistan got its name?
2)As pointed out above, Central Asia is producing a shitload of energy…and a serious percentage of that shitload flows thru Turkey to get to the rest of the world. Turkey would like to see even more flow thru their territory, thus increasing their geopolitical hand while decreasing Russia's—'cause whoever has or controls the oil of the future controls a lot!
3)While Turkey may be looked upon as a poor and backwards stepchild within the EU framework, it would be a true leader of states to their east—being richer, more technologically advanced and more politically stable than virtually any country east of them to China! And speaking of China, Turkey's involvement as a power player in Central Asia would also cut into China's influence as well. The 'Great Game' is back on!
So Europe has got some thinking to do, and Turkey does as well. Many in Turkey are becoming totally disenfranchised with the whole bullshit EU entry process, and many have given up on it already. But that don't mean that they've given up aspirations to be a regional power! Let's watch the Turks carefully this year to see where new relationships may be blossoming…I personally bet that the next President or Prime Minister of Turkey will soon go on a whirlwind tour of Central Asia states trying to sign as many trade deals as he can…but we shall see.
I won't lie to you Turkey: you've got your work cut out for you trying to establish ties in Central Asia, cause the SCO has beat you to the punch. SCO? What the hell is an SCO? The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is not to be messed with! Back the fuck up off the SCO! Maybe I better fly from here to China and tell you a little bit more about these guys in my next blog….
-----
Comments
2007
May
10
Just woke up from partying in Paris, and popped over to London to start on a pub crawl when I heard this news. Blair bailing out! Yet another bedrock political leader in Europe bites the dust! Man, 'tis the season for change all over the Old World apparently. Check it:
Blair will stand down on 27 June
Gordon Brown, the Next Man in Number 10 — Most Likely
Smirking Gordon says: bye, bye Tony
Blair: Ten years is enough
The US' greatest lapdog is bowing out, as in bow-wow-wowing out—pun intended my plaid friends! Where or where will the US ever find such a loyal pooch to blindly follow them into armed adventures across the globe. Hmmm…maybe the Japanese after they scrap their pacifist constitution…or maybe the Australians after they triple their population! Who knows? One thing is for sure: the Brits won't be quite as bold supporters of US bombings from here on out. But I digress, let's back up the cart…
Prime Minister Tony Blair has been leading Great Britain for a decade straight, and helped his political party win three successive elections—that would be the Labour Party to the unfamiliar. The Labour Party can be likened to the Democratic Party here in the US. And we can go one step further in the analogy: Tony Blair was/is the British version of Bill Clinton. Both dudes are center-left, socially liberal, youngish, handsome, slick speaking, eye-candy politicians who ushered in a new younger, hipper, liberal age into both countries roughly at the same time. While the US turned back to the conservative Republicans in 2000, the UK has remained staunchly in the hands of the liberal Labour crew. Bill and Blair were bosom buddies back in the day…and in the days since, Blair has continued his cozy relationship with the US even under the Bush administration…and perhaps that is why he is bailing out right now.
Blair bailing because of Bush? Many would interpret events that way. Blair's unwavering support for the Bush-led US war in Iraq has been extremely unpopular in the pubs and soccer fields of the Kingdom. Lots of folks now believe that even though Blair may has done very well overall for Britain over the years, he is going to be remembered solely for the Iraq debacle. Specifically, many in the Labour Party have wanted Tony to step down for a while now, so as to distance the Party from the Middle Eastern mess—especially since Labour has been losing support, and seats, for the last year. And that's too bad, because under Tony's tutelage the UK has done quite well economically, socially, and internationally. Blair, and Brown, have helped more often than hindered in places like Africa, China, India, et al. But who is this Brown fellow?
Gordon Brown aka 'Brown Sugar' is the long-serving Chancellor of the Exchequer in the UK—the guy who holds the purse strings of the government. He has served in this role under Tony Blair for the last decade—in fact these guys were buddies even before they achieved the top spots of UK leadership. And Brown has another distinction: he has dominated the domestic political agenda like no one before him. Brown is the one largely responsible for the economic success of the country today—and he is the shoe-in to become the next Prime Minister!
Kind of dumpy, plainly dressed, goofy hair, toothy grin: he is the exact opposite of the glibly slick and TV-ready Blair. But old Gordon is much more of a thinker than Tony, as evidenced by the financial state and competitiveness of the UK, and as such may be much more elusive when it comes to staunchly supporting the US. The Plaid Avenger predicts that the British lapdog is soon to be jumping off the trousers of Uncle Sam—the puppy is not going to leave the house, mind you, it's just not going to be on the lap. Brown is reserved and plays his cards close to the chest, and while is has publicly supported the US, the Bushies, and the War on Terror, I believe he is now going to be trying to associate the 'Iraq-capades' distinctly with Blair. He is not going to abandon the US, but will draw a distinct line with the Iraq War deal making it very clear what his government will and will not do in the future—and increasing troops is NOT going to be on the table for discussion. Ever.
So know this: Brown knows that his buddy Blair and his Labour Party have taken a rap for their lapdog role, and he is getting ready to reign in the leash. Just at a time when the Frenchies may be more accommodating to the US-led role in the war (remember, they just elected a conservative president—Sarkozy). How bizarre is that?
Maybe Tony can now join me for that pub crawl since he's got nothing better to do. British Real Ale—can you get anything real-er than that? Look it up my Plaid friends! It's the good shit!
Real Ale and kidney pie!
Yeah,baby!
-PA
Comments
2007
May
8
Greetings from gay Paris my friends. And I am doing my absolute best to make that phrase a paradox! I'm here undercover parting with the Sarkozy crew since the man just won the French presidency yesterday…and like'em or not, these Frenchies know how to party! Dudes, they are the biggest wine producers on the planet, plus they do the Cognac thing, as well as Grand Marnier. And partiers! You must try a snifter of the Grand if you are among the uninitiated! Orange liqueur heaven! But I digress…. let's get back to the fry-makers…
France looks to new Sarkozy era
Sarkozy prepares battle plan
Sarkozy Wastes No Time After Win
Nicolas Sarkozy is the new French President-elect…and he is taking over control of one of the biggest and most troubled European nations by May 16th. Man, the freakin honeymoon is over for this guy before the post-election party buzz even wears off! Nicolas is taking over control from President Jacques Chirac: the 74 year old political bedrock of France for the last dozen years, the face of France for over a decade. But this is no ordinary transfer of power. Oh no my friends! This is a big deal…and here's why:
President Chirac is on the left side of the political spectrum: more of a socialist when it comes to individual rights and liberties and benefits, as well as being more liberal with social programs and individual choice. Jacques has also played spoiler to US international policies for a decade. In fact, he was openly hostile to the latest US war in Iraq, and became a whipping post for hawkish politicians to taunt—remember when the Congressional cafeteria changed the name of French fries to Freedom fries? Hahahaha what a fucking joke! But to be sure, many Americans still hate the French for their liberal ways and refusal to blindly support US tactics. Many Americans refuse to even drink French wine as part of their protest. Mmmmm…more for me to drink! But once again, I digress…
President-elect Sarkozy is the anti-Chirac. He is conservative…not rabidly conservative mind you, but certainly center-right. And as such he is more pro-money, pro-business, pro-small government, pro-police, pro-tax cut, and probably will be 'pro-cracking down on civil liberties when shit hits the fan after his policies take effect'. There have already been two days of small-scale rioting simply because he was elected, so watch for some big-time rioting when he gets some of his pro-business laws passed (things like increasing the work week from 35 to 40 hours—a lot of French cream puffs are going to be pissed!) He will probably also reign in the civil liberties when/if ethnic and cultural clashes rear their head again, which is inevitable. But here is the biggest change between these administrations that I want you to know: Sarkozy will also be pro-US!
Watch for big changes coming on the international power politics stage my plaid friends. Cause it is coming! While Chirac used to be the spoiler, Sarkozy will be the supporter! If it makes it easier for you to understand, consider Sarkozy a more educated, smarter, more eloquent version of George W. Bush. The French Bush. Buisson or touffe? Hmmm…not sure of the usage.
So know this: big changes coming as France now more solidly supports the US/UK led War on Terror world wide. Europe in general is much more pro-US today than it was 5 years ago, so look for even greater cooperation of the EU with US on a host of issues, but certainly the military ones. As a side note, it was Chirac of France and Gerhard Schröder of Germany who were the twin towers of protest against the US war in Iraq. Both are more center-left guys on social policy and international relations who never saw eye to eye with the Bush administration in the US…and now BOTH are GONE! Schröder was replaced by the conservative Angela Merkel last year, and she is now joined by her conservative buddy Nicolas. Man, things are getting shaken up in Europe!
So Nicolas Sarkozy is the new face of France, hoping to make a huge break with the past politics of the great French way—he will be freeing up labor markets, changing the work week to gain competitiveness, and pushing for tougher measures on crime and immigration. And joining the War on Terror. And strengthening the Franco-German alliance with his conservative fraulien friend Angela Merkel. And probably visiting the White House real soon. And, and, and…
Damn! This guy has his dance card full already! France is a'changin' for sure! We shall be keeping a close eye on Nicolas to see how things work out.
-PA
Comments
2007
Apr
26
Back in Plaid! Let's get back into it with a bit of bantering about Boris…Boris Yeltsin that is: a huge figure, literally and figuratively, of the 20th century that you should at least have a working knowledge of. He is the guy who oversaw the transformation of the USSR into what we call Russia today. And what a transition it was! It's nothing short of a miracle that this guy survived his time in office, much less all the vodka he drank while doing it! But I digress…
Yeltsin is laid to rest in Moscow
Lost on the Road to Yeltsin's New Era
Memories of Yeltsin
Ah…..a man after my own heart! Revolutionary leader, statesman, reformer…and a total drunk to boot. What a combo! This rant won't be long, but let me at least point out several things this guy did to make the history books.
First off, who was this dude? Boris Yeltsin was originally a building engineer by training, but entered politics at an early age and never looked back. Of course, if you are a politician in the USSR, then you are by default a communist party member too—after all it was the only political party to be in, and all the cool kids were commies since the Stalin era. So Boris was a commie working his way up the ranks of leadership up until the late 1980's…you know, when things really turn to shit for the USSR. The Cold War was winding down, while Ronald Reagan was ratcheting up the heat on the 'Evil Empire' by building more bombs than ever. Ron Rocks!
So Yeltsin becomes somewhat of a visionary by figuring out that the soviet system was going to collapse, and he actually started speaking out for reform and accountability, which of course got him fired. But his cult of personality had already started in Moscow, and people liked the dude, and they simultaneously hated the commies, so his popularity grew. He was elected to the Russian Congress, and in 1991 he was elected as the President of Russia. (Remember, at this time Russia is simply one of the Republics in the greater USSR political organization, a sub-state if you will.)
What happened next is out of a storybook. The leader of the entire USSR at the time was Mikhail Gorbachev—you know, guy with the wine stain on his forehead—was trying himself to reform the crap-ass soviet system, while desperately trying to hold the impending shit-storm of a strained socialism together. In August of 1991, some hard-line commie hold-outs staged a coup to depose Gorbachev, and guess who comes to the rescue? You know this! Our main booze-hound Boris! He rallied the population, made a speech from atop a tank, re-captured the 'White House', and restored Gorbachev to power. All while brown-bagging a handle of Smirnoff! Wow! That is a historical figure I can rally behind!
Gorbachev was back in power, but the back of the soviet system was now totally broke. Yeltsin was now the man! In a matter of months, the Russian government assumed all powers of the Soviet government (you follow me here?), and in November of 1991, Yeltsin outlawed the Commie Party outright. In December, he set up the dissolution of the USSR into the independent states that you see on the map today. On Christmas Eve, Boris assumed the USSR seat at the UN in Russia's name, and officially declared the end of the Soviet Union. Game over dude. Cold War done.
And now I can more succinctly summarize what he did while in office as Russia's first President (ever!) from 1991-1999. Yeltsin can be credited/blamed for several things of particular note:
- Shift to market economy: He oversaw the transition from socialism to capitalism in what can only be called a 'wild west show' of privatization. During this orgy of capitalism, massive government rip-offs occurred which brought tremendous wealth to a small class of businessmen—now called the 'oligarchs', remember that from class? This transition initially caused widespread turmoil and near economic collapse, but it seems to have leveled off after a decade. It just happened so damn fast! People were in shock, and in fact Boris called his plan "Shock Therapy".
- When this shock took full force, the Russian "congress" basically revolted in 1993 and was going to toss old Boris out, but he sent in the army tanks to shell the senators back into place. Seriously! He fired rounds at the damn building in order to maintain the fledgling democracy! This guy was nuts! The other use of military force that Yeltsin will be remembered for is the start of the war in Chechnya in 1994: a conflict which has mired Russia in death and destruction right on up to the present. He did this on the grounds of maintaining the integrity of the Russian state…but at a terrible cost so far.
- Entrenched democracy: Oversaw first full 'real' elections in 1996, which he won, but by all accounts was pretty darn fairly run. Also, his stepping down in 1999 is a momentous event in that it's always the first real test of a true democracy when the first transition of power happens willingly, and peacefully. And that's exactly how Boris did it. And who did he hand power to? Why our main man in Russia, Vlad 'The Man' Putin of course! Party like Putin!
Of course I need to finish this rant with the booze. Boris loved the booze man! He was widely considered a drunk by his opponents, and a hard partier by his allies…hey, that's kind of like me! He was often tipsy at meetings, late for appointments, or just overslept his duties outright trying to beat down hangovers. One famous story concerned Yeltsin flying to Ireland for a meeting with the President, and being so drunk he could not even get off the plane! Ha! That's usually how people leave Ireland, not arrive in it!
He was a loose cannon, a partier and possibly a drunk….and that's why people were drawn to him. His easy-going friendly nature made him extremely popular in Russian eyes (they aren't the friendliest folks, those Russians) and abroad. His was a big figure who oversaw big changes in the biggest country in the world. And through one of its most turbulent periods ever too! Perhaps it took a drunk like Boris to be able to survive thru such events and still maintain a sense of humor, and still get things done. Either way, he was a unique individual who made a big mark in history. And probably left a big unpaid tab at the local pub too.
It may take years for the Russian vodka industry to recover from the economic shock of his passing…
Comments
2007
Apr
15
Let's hit it again Plaid Friends! Today's titillating talk tilts towards the Turks and the two to three hundred thousand of them that are talking tough on maintaining their Ataturk traditions. And the legacy of Ataturk, the stalwart role of the Turkish military, and the tensions between secular and religious ideologies are all important components of today's Turkey—affecting things like their political allies worldwide and more importantly their possible ascension into the EU. Ataturk? Military? Secular? EU? What? Well, read these, and let's discuss:
Pro-secular Turks stage 'Solidarity with Republic' rally
200,000 protest against Turkey PM
Secular rally targets Turkish PM
Turkey academics oppose PM's run
Turkish army keeps eye on politicians
As mentioned previously in the blog on Turkey's stymied ascension into the EU, Turkey is quite a unique country on today's Plaid Planet. Turkey is an overwhelmingly Muslim country (99% of the population), but is simultaneously a 100% secular state. This makes it one-of-a-kind as far as states go, especially ones so close to the Middle East. What does secular mean? It means that there is a strict separation between church and state—you know, just like the USA.
Except you should know this: the Turks are even more extreme and protective over this separation than the US, or really any other secular democracy on the planet. The state is the state, Islam is Islam, and in Turkey, the two shall never meet. This can be seen in its most dramatic form by laws in Turkey which completely ban all forms of religious dress, symbols or ornaments inside government buildings. Total ban. So, if you want to visit the Turkish parliament building, you can not wear the traditional Muslim headscarf, a funny Pope-style hat, or even a pair of Star-of-David earrings. Not that I've tried…okay you got me—I actually was busted wearing all three at one time. It did not go well. Luckily, I was undercover in Brooklyn, so I didn't have to tangle with any pissed off Turks…
But I digress. Turkey has been this extreme on religious separation since the inception of the modern republic back in 1923. Under General Mustafa Kemal aka Ataturk, Turkey embraced western-style democracy and social systems, tried to modernize and industrialize, and looked to emulate the Western European states as much as possible—which included adopting a staunchly secular outlook. Just so you know, Ataturk is short for 'Father of the Turks' and he is largely seen as 'the George Washington' of today's Turkey. He is revered and respected still; perhaps even more than good old George is here. He was a strong leader, with a strong military background, who genuinely believed that Turkey's best chance for the future was to look West rather than embracing religious/political systems from the East…Middle East that is.
He felt so firmly in this that he made sure that the Turkish military was very strong…specifically strong enough to always be able to thwart any organized attempt to introduce religion onto the political system. And thwart they have. The Turkish military has cleaned house several times in the last few decades: essentially by conducting military coups, firing all the lawmakers/heads of state, and then re-establishing the democracy with fresh elections. Hardly the most democratic way to do things, by western standards, but it still has seemed to work for Turkey.
And thus, this: today's Turkey is becoming tumultuous because there is a perceived threat that political Islam is making headway into the system. As cited in the stories above, the current Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is himself from an Islamist party, and many fear he may pursue a pro-Islamic agenda if elected to become the next President…a post which will be vacant soon. The Turkish 'Congress' is controlled by the same Islamic party and thus Erdogan would be a shoe-in for the nomination, and the subsequent victory if he so desires. (The 'Congress' elects the President, not the people—they vote for the Prime Minister position)
And that is why secular fans are protesting across the country right now—to show at least through demonstrations that they are not keen on such a venture. Look at the pictures too—posters of Ataturk are everywhere. After reading this short blog, you are probably now aware of another group that would not be keen on Erdogan as President. Can you guess? Yep, that's right: the military. Look again at the story above about the general giving Erdogan a polite 'warning' concerning his possible candidacy. Interesting stuff.
Is Erdogan actually going to push for an Islamic state? In the Plaid view: not hardly. No one in Turkey is dumb enough to do that, at least not openly. Why? The military coup option of course! But beyond any threat of military action, Prime Minister Erdogan is a fairly 'westward-leaning' guy himself: he is one of the biggest forces behind EU entry. And he has already been smacked down by the EU before for trying to pass laws to criminalized adultery (among other things), which where interpreted by the EU as being too religious-based. So Erdogan may be from an Islamic party, but his EU-minded sensibities would argue against any radical 'Islam-itization' of the government. Well, that and the fact the army would probably come kick his ass. Hmmmm…possible ass-kicking always seems to weigh heavily on the minds' of world leaders…
Speaking of ass-kicking and world leaders, have you seen what Vladimir Putin has been up to? Damn, that is one world-leader-cat that I would never want to piss off.
Anyway, be sure to watch Turkish developments in their next presidential election to see how things turn out. The Ataturk secularists will be watching close, as will the Turkish military, as will the EU, as will the US—because the US wants Turkey to stay staunchly in that secular/western-leaning column since they are a NATO ally, and perhaps our ony damn friend left anywhere in/near the Middle East. But that's another story….
Comments
Page 11 of 12 pages ‹ First < 9 10 11 12 >
