Dude! Did someone forget to pay the cable bill at the White House? Because I don’t think that they are getting CNN anymore, much less any other news network that deals with issues outside the US!

Salutations my sexy and sultry friends! The Plaid Avenger is back is rare form, to the great consternation of the Cheney administration in the US. While I typically try not to dabble in doltish domestic drivel, I’ve heard enough irreverent and irrational interpretations of international intrigue from this administration to last an infinity. Ha! That’s a lot of ‘I’s my friends! And since the US is definitely the 800 pound gorilla of international politics, it is worthy enough to talk about the current comments of the Cheney corporation…and more importantly why their statements are strange…and sketch. Check it:

Bush warns world of WWIII over Iran

George Bush warns Putin over ‘World War III’

Cheney - No nuclear arms for Iran

Cheney, Like President, Has a Warning for Iran

Cheney raises anti-Iran rhetoric

So what am I ranting about here? Let’s get the sentiment of this blog straight from the start: the Avenger is only concerned with the ridiculous rhetoric coming from the Bush Administration about their ‘world support’ against the Iranian regime. I’m not going to get into the debate about whether or not the Iranians are trying to build a nuclear bomb (they are not…yet). I’m not getting into the particulars about whether or not they support terrorism in the Middle East (they do). I’m not even going to get into whether or not Iran has evil intentions or should be sanctioned or even should be bombed. What I do want to chat about is who exactly would be supporting any of these movements against Iran—which is the focus of this forum….

Now, apparently the US administration is employing some good old boy, old-school, pre-WWII tactics of full-on propaganda in order to scare the living shit out of folks enough to get them riled up to demand that action be taken against the Iranians. I mean, if the whole world is against the Iranians, shouldn’t we do something about it? Um….that’s just the problem…the whole world is definitely not on board with US foreign policy on this matter, and to announce that the US is going to lead a willing world to destroy Iran is not just misleading…its simply wrong. But I want you folks to be smarter than the average bear…and in this case, ‘bear’ is an appropriate animal description, as the Russian Bear has everything to do with this equation.

But I am getting ahead of myself as usual. Let’s get to the facts…I don’t think I need to elaborate much on the Iranian/US situation happening on the planet right now. In a nutshell: Iran is developing a nuclear power industry; no one is disputing that fact. The US and some Western European states are utterly convinced that Iran is developing this knowledge in order to ultimately build nuclear weapons. Iran claims that it only wants the nuclear power, and has a right to do this based on the NPT treaty (which is true).

The US in particular refutes this claim, and there are widespread accusations in the US which allude to ‘flagrant’ misdeeds of Iran developing a secret nuke bomb—although to my knowledge, no proof of Iranian wrong-doing has ever been presented to the IAEA. In other words, the US and its allies insist that everybody in the world knows Iran is doing all this bad stuff…even though no one has actually got any proof of any of this bad stuff. You starting to get the picture here?

Well the picture got fuzzier after Vlad ‘the Man’ Putin visited Iran last week and declared that Russia does not believe threat Iran is doing anything illegal. As you know from a previous blog (World Pissing Match: Russia Pisses Off US;), Russia also went as far as to set up a ‘no-attack-Iran’ zone with all the countries which surround the Caspian Sea. ‘The Bear’ is making no bones about its position with Iran—a position which runs exactly opposite to the US one.

And that brings us back to point: Last Friday US President Bush made a speech in which he said that Iran’s obtaining of a nuclear weapon would start ‘World War Three.” Wow! That is some serious shit to be spouting! Not to be outdone, US Vice-President Dick Cheney went on the attack just yesterday by saying that under no circumstances would the US and the world at large allow Iran to get a nuclear bomb…which in this case also means developing nuclear power. He hinted that ‘the world’ would not allow this, and that there would be serious repercussions on Iran if they continued down this path.

Just a couple of quotes:

President Bush: “My intent is to continue(?) to rally the world, to send a focused signal to the Iranian government that we will continue to work to isolate you…” (my italics…and ‘continue to rally the world’? ‘Continue’? When did it start?)

Vice President Cheney: “The Iranian regime needs to know that if it stays on its present course, the international community is prepared to impose serious consequences,” Mr. Cheney said, without specifying what those might be. “The United States joins other nations in sending a clear message: We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.” (my italics)

The international community is prepared to impose serious consequences? The US is rallying the world? Hmmmm….. I do have to wonder…..Where are these guys getting their information from? I mean, they are the damn White House for pete’s sake! They have the CIA, the FBI, the NSA, foreign ambassadors, think tanks, chiefs of staff and a shitload of other folks whose jobs are to keep the Executive Branch well informed. So how are these guys making such clueless comments? I’m just a dude reading the newspapers and can point out a few holes in their thinking about international support against Iran. Here we go:

1) Russia: Hey guys! Check the papers from last week! Russia just announced that they don’t think Iran is doing anything illegal. AND they said that they would not be supporting any more tougher UN-imposed sanctions on Iran. How can Russian make such a bold assertion? Duh? Russia has a permanent seat on the UN Permanent Security Council. As such, it has veto power over any UN sanctions against Iran.

Hello? McFly? McCheney? Do you know how the UN works? Check out a previous blog if you are still confused (Permanent Possessors of Power: the Fabulous 5!) The deal: Russia will stop cold any UN move against Iran. So you can count Russia out of your ‘international community’ plans…and while we are it at…

2) China: China almost always stays out of internal affairs of other countries unless those countries happen to be directly threatening China itself. And that is not the case here either. Remember, China is the #1 fan of sovereignty on the planet, and as such will say that Iran has a right as a sovereign state to develop nuclear energy until it is proven that they are doing something else. On top of that, China is always wimpy to stand alone at the UN…but since Russia has already ponied up and said it will block any UN measures against Iran, China will now do it too. So count China out of the ‘world standing against Iran’….but wait! There’s more!

3) Latin America: Venezuela? Forget about it! Hugo Chavez loves Iran, as does Bolivia’s leader. And since most of Latin America now swings to the left side of the socialist spectrum (and because US-Latin American relations have sucked for a decade), the US should not be looking south of its borders for too much support of an Iranian intervention. In fact, almost all countries south of Mexico will probably openly oppose any such move…since most already did oppose the US invasion of Iraq. Oh! And speaking of Iraq…

4) Iraq: That place is still in bad shape with sectarian violence between Sunni and Shiite…does anybody in Iraq really want an invasion of Shia Iran next door? Talk about dumping gas on the fire! Holy shit! That whole place will explode! Don’t look for Iran’s immediate neighbors to support an invasion or bombing…what a minute…did you say neighbors?

5) Iran’s ‘hood: As suggested above, Iraq cannot be very supportive of a new war next door. But as also referenced earlier, what I refer to as ‘The Caspian Coalition’ has already declared it opposition to any move against Iran. See map for countries who have already agreed to NOT allow any attack on Iran from their territories. And you can extend a bit beyond the Caspian as well…Central Asian countries have been much more keen to party with Russia lately, and have also been having talks with Iran about letting them into their SCO club. (You Gotsta’ Know the SCO!!! ) So count those –stan countries out as well, ‘cause they will side up with the Ruskies on this matter.

Shit. Who does that leave for the “international stand against Iran”? Let’s end the blog on who the US can count on to get their panties in a bunch over Iran: for sure the US can count on their old lapdog the UK for support. Even though Gordon Brown isn’t quite the parlor pooch that Tony Blair was, he will still give his go ahead for actions against Iran.

And France? Hell, France is the new UK when it comes to supporting US foreign policy! Nick Sarkozy is all about kicking some Iranian ass…or at least supporting the US to do it! Germany may be in on this action as well, as they are getting very leery of Iranian power…combined with the quaint fact that they may be within reach of an Iranian missile. Most other European nations, Japan, and even Australia would be on board right this second. But watch out! Australia is holding an election soon, and if John Howard loses, then you can count the Australians out too! Hell, the Labour Party is threatening to pull Aussie troops out of Iraq if they win–no way they are going to support a war with Iran. That is, if they win…which seems probable right now.

Other than that, the US will have a handful of Arab states which may actually support a move against Iran too. Look for Saudi Arabia and Egypt to possibly side up with the US, although in doing so may cause catastrophic public dissent in their countries. Turkey will also probably side up with the US, although if that Armenian genocide bill goes through the US Congress, its anybody’s bet how the Turks will roll.

Needless to say, this idea of an international community rallying around the US to deny Iran nuclear power/nuclear weaponry is a bit of fancy. And the Avenger can’t stand such fluff. Know your world my friends. Know how it works. And know when politicians are blowing smoke up your ass.

Speaking of smoke…time to head to the local hookah bar for some much needed respite from these radical ramblings…

Hello hello hello again plaid party people! Too many good stories to choose from today…so let’s talk about them all! In a first for the Avenger, we will tie together a trifecta of titillating tidbits with the tantalizing tie between then being irritation. Pissed to be exact! It seems today is the day that most major powers on the planet decided to simultaneously piss in each other’s corn flakes! How hilarious! All in a day’s work I suppose, so let’s get to this summary…shall we?

Russia, Iran harden against West

Bush warns Putin over ‘World War Three’

For starters, one of the planet’s bad asses of all time Vlad ‘the man’ Putin of Russia decided to pay a visit to his homies down in Iran. Ha! Russia has homies? Not likely! Nonetheless, Putin was visiting with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad…and he even met with the grand poo-bah of Shia Iran: Ayatollah Khamenei! Wouldn’t you have loved to be a fly on the wall during that fascinating conversation? Yeah, me neither. Let’s recreate the dialogue:

Putin: Great to meet you, Supreme Leader of Iran…got any vodka to drink?
Ayatollah: Allah be praised, you Russian infidel. We don’t drink alcohol in my country.
Putin: Oh. Well, that’s okay. In my country most Muslims and foreigners in general are discriminated against. Hell, we’ve been blowing up Chechen Muslims for years.
Ayatollah: Hmmm… I see. Well, we don’t really have anything in common, do we?
Putin: Um…nope. Not really. Oh wait! Would you like me to show you some Judo?
Ayatollah: No. That would be gay. And we don’t have any gay people in my country either.
Putin:Oh. Um. Then I guess we don’t have much to talk about…
—Long, uncomfortable silence—
Ayatollah: Well, there is always pissing off the Americans….
Putin: Oh yeah! We are good at that! Let’s work together on that point …what did you have in mind?

Which brings us back to the topic at hand. Let’s get to the pissed part…After talking with President Ahmadinejad, Putin declared that Russia does not support the American assertion that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons. And in fact Russia believes that Iran only wants nuclear technology to produce energy, and Russia is going to help them do it. In addition, Russia has hinted that they are not going to allow any more stricter UN sanctions on Iran (remember, Russia is a veto-wielding member of the UN Security Council—they can stop any further sanctions on the spot), and have outright suggested that the US needs to stop its ‘saber-rattling’ tactics by threatening war. Damn! This is seriously pissing off the US!

On top of that, Russia and Iran just wrapped up a summit of ‘Caspian Sea nations’ in which they all signed a declaration which prohibits any other country on the planet from using their states for attacks on one another “under any circumstances”. Caspian summit a triumph for Iran You get that? Read between the lines: In other words, all those countries agree that they will not help the US, the EU, or even the UN launch an attack on Iran. These countries include Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan (see map). Damn! They are outright telling the US and the world to piss off when it comes to any war on Iran! More rage for the US!

So President Bush is so pissed that he is suggesting that this may be a lead up to WW3! Ha! Dude! Chill out! There are a couple of things that someone should suggest to the Americans to calm them down:

1)Under the NPT (the UN Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty), developing nuclear technology for power creation is totally acceptable. Iran is a signatory to this treaty, so as long as they are playing by the rules, so should you. I know you don’t like it, but you are going to have to live with it

2)Let’s go ahead and run with the US assumption that Iran really only wants nuke technology to make a bomb. Let’s assume they make a bomb. Hell, let’s even assume they launch that bomb at Israel, since the Americans are fully convinced that this will happen. Why would the Iranians do this, since it totally assures that their country will become a smoldering, radioactive wasteland after the US and France and the UK retaliate with overwhelming force? Doesn’t make much sense. Does it?

To be fair to the US, that is an oversimplified analysis, and there other issues to be considered…namely the fear that an Iranian nuke bomb would spark a Middle Eastern arms race. Fair enough. That is a valid point. If Iran gets a nuke, then Saudi Arabia is going to want a nuke, and Syria will then want a nuke, etc. So if that is what you US guys truly believe, then why don’t you actually come out and say it? Enough with the ‘Iran is going to kill us all’ bullshit.

Apparently the US is even more pissed because they can’t do much about these Russia-Iranian developments right now. So the US decided to piss off someone else instead….

U.S. honor for Dalai Lama angers China

Bush dismisses Chinese criticism over Dalai Lama

In honoring the Dalai Lama, the US is seriously pissing off China. Don’t know why that is? Check out an earlier Plaid Avenger insight into China’s fear of the Lama at Dalai Lama at Oktoberfest? Let’s Get Enlit! Now China is pissed at the US because anytime anybody even so much as meets with the Lama (much less give him a damn medal!), the Chinese interpret that as giving the Dalai too much ‘street cred’…and China’s ultimate fear is that if everyone in the world thinks the Dalai Lama is legit, then he will have the power to demand an independent Tibet. All I can say to the Chinese is: bullshit! That is never going to happen dudes, so lighten up on the monk! But China remains pissed for today either way….but they are not alone…

Turkey is also pissed at the US because of that proposed ‘recognition of the Armenian Genocide’ bill that made its way through a House committee last week. See Turkey is Steamed and Ready; but this ain’t no Thanksgiving for US I reported on that shit a few days back from the Turk-Iraq border, and the shit is heating up even more! While I was there, about 50,000-60,000 Turkish troops with a butt load of tanks and guns were amassing. They are about ready to get the party started. What party? The invasion of Iraq to track down some Kurdish terrorists.

Turks’ vote backs right to use force inside Iraq

Turkey votes to send troops into northen Iraq

And Turkey is still so pissed about that US committee vote, that they Turkish parliament went ahead and voted 507 to 19 to allow the armed forces to launch a cross-border assault against Kurdish insurgents based in northern Iraq. The 19 that voted ‘no’ were probably taken out back for a ass-whoopin’ shortly after the proceedings. Ordinarily, the US and Turkey are such strong allies that the US probably would have been able to talk them out of any aggressive actions in Iraq. But the Turks are simply pissed! Too pissed to listen to the Americans now…

And it goes without saying that the Iraqis are pissed about these Turkish developments…

Angry Iraqi Kurds say Turkish move would destabilise region

Iraq Kurds warn Turkey against ‘illegal’ incursion vote

Kurds ‘will fight Turkish raids’

Although Iraq is pretty much a basket case, and barely a functioning government, they have voiced their serious pissed-off-ness about the idea that Turkey may invade their ‘sovereign’ state. Sovereign? Ha! How hilarious is that? Isn’t there like troops from 20 different countries in Iraq? And the whole place is on the brink of civil war…if not fully already in one?

Despite the current Iraqi predicament, the idea of yet another country sending in troops is seriously pissing them off…particularly since the northern part of Iraq (where the Turks plan to invade to route out the PKK terrorists) is one of the only stable parts of the country right now! And northern Iraq is composed mostly of ethnic Kurds, and the Turks are coming in to hunt down a group of radical Kurds. If the Turks do come in, and accidentally kill a bunch of innocent Kurds while trying to kill the ‘bad’ PKK Kurds….OMG there will be hell to pay! That would spark a shit storm of open warfare in the region! The place may quickly get as nasty as the Bagdad region!

And the prospect of that seriously pisses off the US! The US has its hands full already trying to calm down the rest of the Iraq, where most of the conflict centers on sectarian strife between the Sunni and Shia Muslims…fueled by local Sunni extremist, outside terrorist forces like Al-Qaeda, and even next-door-neighbor Iran which funnels in ammo and aid to the Shias. Damn! The US would be pissed about the Turks getting the northern region as hot as the south already is!

Simply pissed!

And now we have come full circle in our pissing match for the day. Those world leaders certainly have been busy boys today, infuriating each other like its going out of style!

And they are pissed!

Damn! I hate reporting from an active war zone! I always end up spilling a martini or two in the foxhole, and it’s so much harder to get my groove on with gunfire ringing out in the background. Plus, I just don’t feel as sexy in a plaid flak jacket…but I digress as usual. So where the hell am I? Well, I heard that you folks were flabbergasted by some strange events in the US Congress which may result in Turkish forces invading Iraq? Huh? Does that sound as confusing to you as it does to me? Indeed! So I came here to the Turkish/Iraqi border to witness the events as they unfold…and to fill you in on all the fuss and furor….

Bush warns Congress not to recognise Armenian ‘genocide’

Turkey protests approval of bill in US House

Turkey warns US of repercussions to genocide vote

Tension rises on Turkey-Iraq border

PM Erdoğan says Turkey doesn’t need permission to move on Northern Iraq

U.S. Officials Urge Restraint From Turkey

So what the hell is Turkey so pissed about? And what is this potential genocide business? And why is the White House really really really concerned about it? And how could a simple committee vote in the US on a 100 year old slaughter lead to Turkish troops invading Iraq in the next 100 hours? Damn! That’s a lot of questions, which demand a lot of answers my plaid friends! But despite the appearance of complication, these issues are all actually fairly easy to relate to each other…and easy for us to figure out what’s going on. The only damn confusing part of this whole story is why this snowball of shit has started rolling down the hill in the first place…..but first, to the facts of things we can follow…

For this excursion, we have to get Sherman to set the ‘way-back’ machine for over 90 years ago, in what is now the sovereign state of Turkey. Back then it was a center of the crumbling Ottoman Empire, an old-school imperial power that at its height controlled most of the Arabian peninsula, North Africa, and even southeast Europe. But by the time World War One gets started, this empire is a disaster! Internally corrupt, stagnate, weak, and technologically backwards, the Ottomans as a ruling line were already on their deathbed…in fact, a group of secularist named ‘the Young Turks’ (what a sweet ass nickname!) had already taken over the government in an attempt to reform and strengthen the failing state.

But it was too little too late. Turkey entered WW1 on the side of the Central Powers, and decided to hasten the process of their own demise by starting a land war with Russia in the Caucuses region of western Turkey. Unfortunately for the Young Turks, their team sucked, and the Russian war was a disaster. Why is all this shit important for today’s stories? Because there were about 2 million ethnic Armenian folks hanging out in western Turkey at the time, and some of them were agitating for a separate state for themselves (everyone knew the Ottomans were crumbling). And the Young Turks accused those Armenians of assisting the Russians during the war in order to secure their own independence….which severely pissed off the Turks! Subsequently, the Young Turks organized a horrific campaign of disaster against those Armenians as retribution for their acts of aiding and abetting the Ruskies.

Now let’s stop the boat for a minute and answer a few questions. Were some Armenians agitating for independence? Yep, as were a shitload of other ethnic groups under the Ottoman umbrella. Did some of those Armenians assist the Russians? Surely some of them did, but how many is anybody’s guess. Did the Young Turks burn, loot, pillage, torture, maim, deport, and outright kill about 1-1.5 million Armenians in 1915-17? Absolutely; no one is disputing that fact, not even the current Turkish government. So why are these events suddenly in the news, with a variety of huge repercussions for global events? Ah…that will take some more explaining…

As referenced in the above stories, a US House of Representatives committee just voted on a bill to recognize this Ottoman event as a genocide. Genocide: the deliberate and systematic destruction of an ethnic, religious or national group. Damn, that’s a word that pisses people off every time its uttered. And this time its Turkey’s turn to be pissed about it. And my friends they are fucking hot and bothered beyond belief!

As soon as the White House caught wind of this bill, President Bush issued a very heavy handed warning to the folks on the committee. Heavy. Like, “hey don’t do this shit, please, this is more grief than we want to deal with right now!” But the bill passed anyway after much debate—this is just a committee bill by the way; it still has to go to the entire House floor for a vote, maybe as early as this week. Bill or law, the shit hit the fan anyway. Turkey called back its US ambassador, there have been protests outside the US embassy in Turkey, as well as protests in DC, and the Turkish leadership has hinted at various retaliatory measures that are being considered.

Retaliatory measures? What retaliatory measures? What the hell could Turkey do to the US? Oh, you would be surprised my friends! It is well understood by the White House and by the US military that without Turkish help and support there would be no supply lines fueling US forces in Iraq. On top of that, Turkey is a NATO member, which means it is also the refueling and re-supplying launching pad for US forces in Afghanistan, which is a NATO campaign. Long story short, if Turkey gets pissed enough at the US, it can totally screw-up all current military operations in the Middle East. And I mean totally screw-up.

Due to its strategic location, it is the only participating country that truly wields the power to utterly alter the US game plan in both of those conflicts. You dig what I’m saying? If Poland decides to pull out of Iraq; the US loses troop support. If Great Britain decides to pull out; then the US loses troop and material support. If Australia decides to pull out; the US loses the trained bomb-sniffing dingo unit. But if Turkey pulls out? Ouch! All major supply lines have to be re-routed. Most military and supply flights lift off out of US airbases in Turkey, so all those would be gone. And it would be a tremendous blow to morale to lose the only participating Muslim country in what is otherwise a big ‘Christian’/’West’ campaign in the Middle East. Are you starting to see why President Bush and Condoleezza Rice are really upset about this shit?

But Turkey can do even more to frustrate the US right now…and they are getting ready to actually do it! As referenced in the stories above, Turkey is about to launch a force of Turkish troops into northern Iraq for reasons that have nothing to do with the current US war. The Turks are talking about sending in forces to try and nab a bunch of radical Kurdish terrorist named the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) who are operating out of Iraq, and who recently blew up some shit and killed 30 people in Turkey.

Now I don’t want to get into the particulars of that mess in this forum today, but I do want you to understand this: before that genocide vote last week, the US probably could have talked the Turks out of doing this—but now all bets are off! The Turks are so pissed that they currently don’t give a shit what the US wants…and thus are probably going to go forward with their invasion, I’m guessing this week! Ha! And watch for this: the Turks will probably invade on the same day that the Armenian genocide bill goes up for the vote on the House floor! Talk about rubbing salt in the wound!

So the US administration is flustered, flabbergasted, and frustrated by this congressional gesture to label the Armenian massacre as a genocide. Almost as much as the Turks are. The US does not want Turkey invading northern Iraq…the last thing anybody wants is yet another entity blowing up shit in this basket-case Iraq catastrophe. What’s worse, the US is deathly afraid of losing Turkish support for conducting war. And what’s even worse than that is the possibility of ‘the West’ losing Turkey as a strategic ally altogether. Damn! That would totally suck for the ‘West’ Why?

As alluded to already, Turkey has been a staunch US ally in NATO ever since the organization was formed in 1949. They have played a major part in every NATO operation, and have supporting virtually every US endeavor within NATO and even most US policies outside of the NATO sphere. Turkey is the most ‘westward’ leaning Muslim state…doing most of its business with the ‘West’ and even petitioning for entry into the EU. Most importantly, Turkey is the best example of a fully secular, fully democratic, AND fully Muslim state in the world. Hell, it’s the ONLY one of its kind anywhere near the Middle East. Turley is the state that the ‘West’ would like all the other Middle Eastern states to emulate and copy. So if ‘the West’ loses Turkey…..hell, I don’t know…it don’t look good…the US, ‘the West’, and democracy won’t have too many friends in the neighborhood anymore. You see what I’m saying?

To finish this rant, why would this Armenian genocide deal have come up at this particular time anyway? That does appear to be the $25,000 dollar question. I have no real idea why it is happening right this second in the US. The current government of Turkey is historically ‘unrelated’ to the Young Turks that committed the heinous acts of 1915-17. To my knowledge, there is no requests for punishment of anybody (they are all dead) or for any type of reparations or fees to survivors (they are all dead too). But I can tell you this little piece of insider’s info: its not the first country to go through this Armenian debate. 22 countries have officially recognized the incident as genocide, and 40 of the 50 states in the US have as well.

Of particular note, I want to mention just a few of these: Austria, Cyprus, and most importantly France. France even passed a law making it a crime to openly deny the event as a genocide. Why would I point this out? Only to make the not-so-obvious connection that these European states (especially France) are extremely opposed to allowing Turkey into the EU. Starting to get the picture here? For the Frenchies, its an overt ploy to de-rail the Turkish/EU negotiations.

But for the US and the Middle East, how pissed off Turkey gets over this issue may very well have severe repercussions for the events of this week…of this year….and the long-term future of the region, and the world.

Hmmmm…Strange…..How bizarre is it that big, global-shaping events hinge on the use—or failure to use—a single word to describe a century-old catastrophe.

Greetings again from Ankara my Plaid Friends! On my way back from Pakistan, I felt the overwhelming urge for some raki and Turkish Delight (the confection has taken such a bad rap since that little lying bastard Edmund wanted it in ‘The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe’)…aslan sütü and lokum. What a delightful pair to have while in Turkey! I do love the lion’s milk! Yeah baby! And Turkey is back on my radar screen again already due to some current events. Dig it:

Turkey stakes a Central Asian claim
US to push Sarkozy on Turkey’s EU processBetween Turkey and the EU, two plus two does not necessarily equal four
EU excited and worried by Sarkozy

Now I’ve chatted about the EU’s apprehension for Turkish ascension before on this blog, so I need not go back into those details (see EU turkeys talk turkey with Turkey ). But what I want to blather about today is what I’ve been telling my classes for years: Turkey is on a pivot point in modern history, and it looks as if a direction is soon to be chosen…if not downright forced on it! What pivot do I speak of? I’m referring to one of two directions Turkey will take to team up with in terms of economies, cultures, and politics. Those two team choices are the EU or Central Asia/Middle East. West or East. Could the choices be made more geographically distinct?

Turkey is a population powerhouse, Turkey is a growing economic power, and Turkey is increasingly a vital hub for the international flow of oil and natural gas. Turkey will be a leader in the 21^st century. The question is: of what? Will they be accepted into the EU and embrace the West even more, or will they be snubbed by the EU and turn around and become a power broker of a Central Asian/Middle Eastern coalition?

An Ottoman Empire Part Deux? Seems increasingly likely. Why?

As a very savvy commenter pointed out in a previous blog (see Fuck ‘Freedom Fries’: France is Freakin’ Back, Fools!), the election of anti-EU-enlargement Nicolas Sarkozy in France is very likely to put a huge damper on Turkish movement forward with EU entry. But that French fairy is only the latest nail in the coffin of Turkey’s EU talks: Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel is also vehemently opposed to the Turks, and the likely-next-Prime Minister of the UK, Gordon ‘Brown Sugar’ Brown, may be no proponent of Ankara either. And this ‘EU Dream Team’ of leaders are all youngish and recently-elected, so they are going to be around for while—which may mean Turkey won’t be!

As pointed out numerous times by the Avenger, the US is HUGELY in favor of Turkey staying staunchly in the western sphere of influence, and they are pushing hard for the EU to embrace their Turkish ally. Why would this be? Turkey is a NATO member, and one that has been of central and downright critical importance for the War on Terrorism: Afghan Chapter. The US also sees Turkey as the only successful Islamic democracy in the region to be emulated by its Middle Eastern neighbors, so Uncle Sam is keen on keeping Turkey in their corner of the ring. Simply put, without Turkish help, the war on terrorism in the Middle East and Central Asia becomes seriously hampered, if not outright hamstrung.

The other consideration here is that Turkey is increasingly becoming a pivotal power player in the energy game too. Long story short:

• The EU imports virtually all of its oil and natural gas needs…
• Central Asia has been increasing its output of energy radically in the last decade, with lots more to come…
• Russia has been building an energy empire on which Europe is currently addicted to…
• Energy from Central Asia is transported to the EU thru Russia and Turkey…
• Many in the EU are getting very worried about their over-reliance on Russian energy, which increases Russian geopolitical influence…
• Thus, including Turkey in the EU would shift the energy influence to a country on their own team…

And therefore shutting out Turkey will further shut out strategic ties to their energy sources. Don’t sound too smart to me, but whatever. Perhaps the EU will go totally green in the next ten years and never use oil again. Yeah…..right. As of this writing, it appears that the EU fears negative repercussions of Turkish entry in the EU much much much more than it fears losing an ally on the anti-terrorism campaign and an ally in their energy strategy. Tricky business. Tricky business indeed. I wonder if the ‘EU Dream Team’ will still be glad they excluded the Turks if Turkey turns around and starts to put the energy crunch on them…like the Russians have been.

But watch out! This is what I really want you to see! The Turks are not going to roll over and die if they don’t get in the EU, and Central Asia may be where they will re-focus their foreign policy and diplomacy. Why there? Several reasons:

1)Cultural and historic ties—the ethnic group called ‘the Turks’ are from Central Asia originally, and they share linguistic and religious commonalities with their Asian buddies. Ever wonder how Turkmenistan got its name?
2)As pointed out above, Central Asia is producing a shitload of energy…and a serious percentage of that shitload flows thru Turkey to get to the rest of the world. Turkey would like to see even more flow thru their territory, thus increasing their geopolitical hand while decreasing Russia’s—‘cause whoever has or controls the oil of the future controls a lot!
3)While Turkey may be looked upon as a poor and backwards stepchild within the EU framework, it would be a true leader of states to their east—being richer, more technologically advanced and more politically stable than virtually any country east of them to China! And speaking of China, Turkey’s involvement as a power player in Central Asia would also cut into China’s influence as well. The ‘Great Game’ is back on!

So Europe has got some thinking to do, and Turkey does as well. Many in Turkey are becoming totally disenfranchised with the whole bullshit EU entry process, and many have given up on it already. But that don’t mean that they’ve given up aspirations to be a regional power! Let’s watch the Turks carefully this year to see where new relationships may be blossoming…I personally bet that the next President or Prime Minister of Turkey will soon go on a whirlwind tour of Central Asia states trying to sign as many trade deals as he can…but we shall see.

I won’t lie to you Turkey: you’ve got your work cut out for you trying to establish ties in Central Asia, cause the SCO has beat you to the punch. SCO? What the hell is an SCO? The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is not to be messed with! Back the fuck up off the SCO! Maybe I better fly from here to China and tell you a little bit more about these guys in my next blog….

Let’s hit it again Plaid Friends! Today’s titillating talk tilts towards the Turks and the two to three hundred thousand of them that are talking tough on maintaining their Ataturk traditions. And the legacy of Ataturk, the stalwart role of the Turkish military, and the tensions between secular and religious ideologies are all important components of today’s Turkey—affecting things like their political allies worldwide and more importantly their possible ascension into the EU. Ataturk? Military? Secular? EU? What? Well, read these, and let’s discuss:

Pro-secular Turks stage ‘Solidarity with Republic’ rally

200,000 protest against Turkey PM

Secular rally targets Turkish PM

Turkey academics oppose PM’s run

Turkish army keeps eye on politicians

As mentioned previously in the blog on Turkey’s stymied ascension into the EU, Turkey is quite a unique country on today’s Plaid Planet. Turkey is an overwhelmingly Muslim country (99% of the population), but is simultaneously a 100% secular state. This makes it one-of-a-kind as far as states go, especially ones so close to the Middle East. What does secular mean? It means that there is a strict separation between church and state—you know, just like the USA.

Except you should know this: the Turks are even more extreme and protective over this separation than the US, or really any other secular democracy on the planet. The state is the state, Islam is Islam, and in Turkey, the two shall never meet. This can be seen in its most dramatic form by laws in Turkey which completely ban all forms of religious dress, symbols or ornaments inside government buildings. Total ban. So, if you want to visit the Turkish parliament building, you can not wear the traditional Muslim headscarf, a funny Pope-style hat, or even a pair of Star-of-David earrings. Not that I’ve tried…okay you got me—I actually was busted wearing all three at one time. It did not go well. Luckily, I was undercover in Brooklyn, so I didn’t have to tangle with any pissed off Turks…

But I digress. Turkey has been this extreme on religious separation since the inception of the modern republic back in 1923. Under General Mustafa Kemal aka Ataturk, Turkey embraced western-style democracy and social systems, tried to modernize and industrialize, and looked to emulate the Western European states as much as possible—which included adopting a staunchly secular outlook. Just so you know, Ataturk is short for ‘Father of the Turks’ and he is largely seen as ‘the George Washington’ of today’s Turkey. He is revered and respected still; perhaps even more than good old George is here. He was a strong leader, with a strong military background, who genuinely believed that Turkey’s best chance for the future was to look West rather than embracing religious/political systems from the East…Middle East that is.

He felt so firmly in this that he made sure that the Turkish military was very strong…specifically strong enough to always be able to thwart any organized attempt to introduce religion onto the political system. And thwart they have. The Turkish military has cleaned house several times in the last few decades: essentially by conducting military coups, firing all the lawmakers/heads of state, and then re-establishing the democracy with fresh elections. Hardly the most democratic way to do things, by western standards, but it still has seemed to work for Turkey.

And thus, this: today’s Turkey is becoming tumultuous because there is a perceived threat that political Islam is making headway into the system. As cited in the stories above, the current Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is himself from an Islamist party, and many fear he may pursue a pro-Islamic agenda if elected to become the next President…a post which will be vacant soon. The Turkish ‘Congress’ is controlled by the same Islamic party and thus Erdogan would be a shoe-in for the nomination, and the subsequent victory if he so desires. (The ‘Congress’ elects the President, not the people—they vote for the Prime Minister position)

And that is why secular fans are protesting across the country right now—to show at least through demonstrations that they are not keen on such a venture. Look at the pictures too—posters of Ataturk are everywhere. After reading this short blog, you are probably now aware of another group that would not be keen on Erdogan as President. Can you guess? Yep, that’s right: the military. Look again at the story above about the general giving Erdogan a polite ‘warning’ concerning his possible candidacy. Interesting stuff.

Is Erdogan actually going to push for an Islamic state? In the Plaid view: not hardly. No one in Turkey is dumb enough to do that, at least not openly. Why? The military coup option of course! But beyond any threat of military action, Prime Minister Erdogan is a fairly ‘westward-leaning’ guy himself: he is one of the biggest forces behind EU entry. And he has already been smacked down by the EU before for trying to pass laws to criminalized adultery (among other things), which where interpreted by the EU as being too religious-based. So Erdogan may be from an Islamic party, but his EU-minded sensibities would argue against any radical ‘Islam-itization’ of the government. Well, that and the fact the army would probably come kick his ass. Hmmmm…possible ass-kicking always seems to weigh heavily on the minds’ of world leaders…

Speaking of ass-kicking and world leaders, have you seen what Vladimir Putin has been up to? Damn, that is one world-leader-cat that I would never want to piss off.

Anyway, be sure to watch Turkish developments in their next presidential election to see how things turn out. The Ataturk secularists will be watching close, as will the Turkish military, as will the EU, as will the US—because the US wants Turkey to stay staunchly in that secular/western-leaning column since they are a NATO ally, and perhaps our ony damn friend left anywhere in/near the Middle East. But that’s another story….