Word up my plaid comrades in arms! It is I The Plaid Avenger, coming at you again in the written word, with a new attitude, a new lease on life, and a new pair of plaid boxers, and all right here in the heart of New Delhi. That’s in India, fool! I had to come here to party with my main man Manmohan Singh….that would be Prime Minister Singh to you! And why would he be hitting the hookah in celebration? ‘Cause the US Congress just passed a India-US nuke deal that the Bush Administration has been pushing hard for…and Manmohan himself has had to work his Indian ass off for at home. Dig this:

U.S. Senate approves Indian nuclear deal

Nuclear deal set to boost US-India ties

India tilts to the US with nuclear deal

Iran: US-India nuclear deal violates NPT

Left parties observe black day

So what is the deal with this deal? It’s all about the US helping bend some international rules to get India hooked up with some nuclear energy options. Wait a damn minute…..Doesn’t India already have nuclear weapons? Answer: yes. Doesn’t India already have a nuclear weapons industry? Answer: yes. So therefore, doesn’t it stand to reason that India already has a nuclear power industry? Answer: NO! But they really want one…and they really need one too. So what gives?

India must have energy to continue on their path of development. They must have the go-go juice in order to build and operate all those new factories and industries which will be supplying the world with lots of cheap labor trinkets. India also has serious development in the high-end computer and software sectors too…and you need energy to keep those screens on as well. And there is the small matter of a billion people in the country that would like to have lights and TVs and microwave ovens and all that shit. Unfortunately, India does not have many energy resources of its own. Therefore, India must import more and more energy in order to keep their economy running, and as you know that oil-based energy has been getting more and more expensive.

But wait…I thought the world was trying to get away from oil dependence? Why don’t the Indians just use some other type of energy? Well, as stated above, India ain’t got no oil. They do have some coal, but that is awfully polluting fuel for a billion people to use. As is wood. Or dried cow dung. So India simply doesn’t have a lot of energy options. Oh! Oh….wait! Oh….Oh….Oh…I got it! Call on me teacher! I’ve got the answer! Call on me! My hand is up!…How about nuclear energy? Yeah! Damn I’m good. See, India already has nuclear technology; hell, it has a nuclear program and nuclear bombs! So they can just start making nuclear energy….right? Wrong! WTF? Why not?

Almost all the major world powers which possess nuclear weapons have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which basically states that they won’t proliferate or distribute nuke technology to anybody else. However, I did say almost all. India, Pakistan and Israel are three states known to possess nuke technology, but who have not signed this treaty—and all for very, very different reasons too, which I won’t get into here. As you can imagine, this treaty is mostly to ensure that nobody is making nuke weapons, but nuke power technology is allowed by the NPT, which makes enforcement of it tricky…i.e. see IRAN in current events.

Just know this for now: if you aren’t signed up for the treaty, then you are not allowed to access civilian nuke technology or buy fuel for nuke energy production either. Which is why India has been stuck. But the US likes India! The UN likes India! Hell, everybody likes India! Okay, maybe not Pakistan. But most of the world sees India as a multi-cultural society and stable democracy that is developing rapidly in the modern world. And since they already have the nuke technology, most think they can handle nuke energy. But that pesky NPT! What to do about that?

Well, US President George Bush thought of what to do a few years back: bend it a little. In an effort to strengthen US-Indian ties, Georgie has been working tirelessly (okay, someone who works for Georgie has been working tirelessly) to make India the exception to this NPT rule. The United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act of 2006 is the legal framework for a bilateral pact between the US and India under which the US will provide access to civilian nuclear technology and access to nuclear fuel in exchange for IAEA-safeguards on civilian Indian reactors.

In other words, the US will personally work with India to get them the goods (nuke energy technologies and fuel) and in return India promises to abide by all the major rules of the NPT (especially the ‘no proliferating’ part) and the IAEA—the International Atomic Energy Agency—would also be participating to do inspections and enforce the rules.

Everybody was all about this shit man! Mohammad El Baradei of the IAEA thought it was a good idea. Prime Minister Singh thought it was sweet that India would be getting all kinds of cheap fuel for his economy. And the Bush Administration? Holy shit! They were tickled pink! Not only would the US get to make tons of money on selling India nuke secrets and nuke fuel, but US corporations were going to be getting a hefty share of building the nuke plants to boot! And the US really wants the growing Indian economy to produce its own fuel….thereby lessening its demand for world oil…lower Indian demand means more left over for us! At cheaper prices too!

However, this agreement turned into a 3 year rollercoaster ride for both the US and India. Prime Minister Singh actually got egg all over his face when the Indian Parliament initially shot down the idea, and then has been bickering over the details of its passage ever since. A main Indian political party named BJP declared that India’s entering this agreement with the US would compromise their national security by limiting their weapons program. Worse yet, a bunch of Indian Commie/Marxist parties declared their boycott of the nuke deal on the grounds that it made India a subservient pawn to the ‘imperialist policies of the U.S.A.’. Dudes, did anyone tell those Indian commies that the Cold War is over? Read the papers man!

But now all the fussing and fighting has finally ended, and that’s what this report is all about. Our main man Singh finally got enough of his parliament on board to sign the agreement, and the US Congress put its stamp of approval on it last week. The IAEA is in the middle working out all the details as we speak. Pull out the Tandori chicken and let the nuke party begin!

But hold the phone! Not everyone is in love with this deal! It is seriously pissing off opponents of nuclear proliferation around the globe, who argue that India is benefiting by breaking the rules…which will set a dangerous precedent for other countries to follow the same path. And one need look no further than Pakistan to see some pissed Paki peoples who claim that India is being shown favoritism by the West…because the same deal is certainly not being offered to them and their Muslim majority! Finally, look to a fuming Iran, which says that this whole process is bullshit, since the Iranians themselves are trying to do the exact same thing as India, but being punished for it! Iran has no nuke weapons and claims it only wants nuke energy….but they are getting their asses sanctioned instead of satiated for their efforts.

But the deal is now sealed, and that means plenty for these two giants. US businesses will certainly be getting sweet deals in the sub-continent now, the first such major in-roads that the US has ever made into the Indian economy. More importantly, this starts the solidification of a new era of US/India foreign policy, which serves to pull India distinctly into the ‘Team West’ camp on a variety of global issues. Namely, India is now firmly on-board the ‘Team West’ train in being a democracy, being a capitalist economy, being a big advocate of human rights and individual liberties, being a member of the ‘War on Terrorism’…and now with this nuke energy move, being an active member of the ‘Green Movement’ to stop using fossil fuels.

And India will certainly benefit by this new stronger alliance as well. Look for the next US President and all others after him, to increase visitation, aid, and military intelligence with India. Foreign direct investment will probably start pouring in from the US and others. Whether you like it or not, nuke energy will certainly be providing absolute shit tons of relatively cheap fuel to the Indian economy and its peoples, while minimizing environmental degradation. And look for India to become a much stronger global player by the side of the US as well…dare I say that this agreement may convince the US to support the inclusion of India on the UN Permanent Security Council! I dare! I dare! I predict it will happen!

Back home in India, those Marxist/Commie leftists are plenty pissed about these movements, and are convinced that this agreement will make India a new bitch to American foreign policy and influence. But I don’t see it. India has always been a very independent player and those Hindus have been doing their Hindi thing for thousands of years, so don’t expect them to cave in on issues of relevance when they disagree with Uncle Sam. But there is no doubt, Vishnu and Lady Liberty are in a new tango that has tremendous and titillating future potential!

If only I could get Krishna and Kali to wear some plaid outfits…hmmmm…Kali the Plaid Destroyer. Sounds kinky…

Bookmark this on Delicious

Greetings from an extended seasonal hiatus my plaid friends! My apologies for the extended absence, but I had to head north for the holidays….far north to be exacter. I was at the North Pole investigating competing claims to the Arctic territory, but wound up fishing a totally soused Yukon Cornelius out of a drunken Eskimo orgy in Inuit territory. That Yukon! I’ve been carrying his weak ass back to Santa’s palace for years.

And sorry to have to check back in for such a dismal news assessment, but as all of you are aware, Benazir Bhutto was assassinated last week and now Pakistan is in flames…figuratively and literally. This country is totally screwed with a capital SCHLONG. I won’t do a whole in-depth blog on it right this second since many of the details are still sketchy and the country is in for a shit ton of turmoil in the coming weeks in which anything can happen. Seriously friends, this is the type of situation in which full on revolution and chaos are ripe. So let me just make a few comments addressing the questions many of you have sent me:

Big question numero uno: Did Musharraf have anything to do with the Bhutto assassination? Almost assuredly not. In fact, I’ll go out on a limb and say hell freakin no. Why am I so sure? Because Musharraf has been leading a country that has been on the brink of total chaos and collapse. Now he is leading a country that IS in chaos with a real tangible threat of collapse. He already had the shittiest job ever, and it just got worse. Bhutto’s death may very well be the death of his presidency, and he knows it. Mush did not order or condone the killing of Bhutto.

Having said that, he is still partially to blame. How? Because there is also no doubt in the Plaid Avenger’s mind that Mush was playing political hardball with Bhutto. See, Bhutto has been gaining even more popularity since her return, and everyone knew she was going to have a big win in the upcoming elections. Now, Mush knew he couldn’t stop that from happening, but he didn’t want to help her become even more powerful either. So the Mush government consistently refused to beef up security around Bhutto, even though she routinely requested it…and even though everybody knew the danger level was high.

Security lapse and Bhutto’s personal touch made her vulnerable to attack

So Mush did not order her assassination. Mush did not even know about the plans of her assassination. Mush is not even exactly sure who assassinated her. But Mush does hold some culpability for allowing the assassination to occur.

Big question numero dos: So who did kill her? That is actually an easy one. It’s the same folks who tried to kill her a few months ago…who happen to be the same folks who have tried to kill Musharraf several times too. Its them damn terrorist Muslim extremist types that are all over Pakistan and Afghanistan! Why did they want her (and Mush) dead? Because Bhutto and Mush are both staunch secularist when it comes to Pakistani government. That means they want to keep a strict separation between religion and politics. And both Bhutto and Mush support the US/World ‘War on Terrorism’, in which the fight is hottest right there on Paki soil.

Those extremist types (like al-Qaeda and the Taliban) are fighting for establishment of a theocratic Muslim state, or they are fighting for an independent state within Pakistan (i.e. Waziristan), or they are just fighting like hell against the Paki government because they don’t like the fact that Mush/Pakistan is so cozy with the US when it comes to foreign policy. Remember, Pakistan receives a shit-ton of foreign aid from the US, primarily to keep up the ‘war on terrorism.’ As you can imagine, the terrorist don’t like that idea too much, so total destabilization of Pakistan by any means is one of their ongoing goals.

Not to confuse you too much, but you should also note that a whole lot of these ‘terrorists’ are actually not Taliban or al-Qaeda operatives…but are increasingly ethnic Waziri, Baloch, or Pashtun folks who are being whipped into a fury with the promise of independence from Pakistan. Whipped up by who? Why by al-Qaeda and the Taliban forces of course. Yeah…what a great idea that is to take advice from al-Qaeda on how to become an independent state. Good luck with that one, guys. Why don’t you just paint a big ass bull-eye across your territory so the bombers know where to drop their payload?

So while I cringe from ever agreeing with the overly-simplistic Cheney administration’s take on international affairs, they happen to be right on this one. The Bhutto assassination was without a doubt carried out by fringe Islamic extremists within Pakistan. Bhutto’s people are already disputing this fact, but they are politically motivated to do so. They hate Mush so much now (like they didn’t before?) that they are adamant that his government be connected to the assassination. They want his ass out in the worst way, so they will continue to implicate Mush and the entire government in Bhutto’s death. Again, its just a political ploy….but it may well work.

Bhutto killing blamed on al-Qaeda

Anger, mistrust at Bhutto death among Pakistan’s bloggers

Big question numero tres: So what now for Pakistan? Well, that is the big question isn’t it? And I hate to get into the speculation game like so many other freakin’ worthless pundits on Capitol Hill and on radio/TV talk shows. It really is too close to the events and too soon to tell what is going to play out in Pakistan. But I will offer this: it’s going to get messy. A lot messier than it even is now.

There really are no strong, popular figures in Pakistan right this second that can pull things together. Which means things are going to continue to get pulled further apart. And while the mainstream news media has not been reporting on it too much (they have been kept so busy all year telling you about the status of Brittany Spears’ vagina), things have been getting much worse in Afghanistan and the Afghan/Paki border. Al-Qaeda and the Taliban have made fairly decent gains in terms of outright controlling more territory and making a bigger political impact across the entire region. The Taliban has been moving stridently right up to the Afghan capital city….and NATO and the rest of the boys are losing ground in this battle.

And as referenced above, al-Qaeda has also done a stellar job recruiting the locals to fight the Paki government, mostly via bullshit promises that somehow this will result in a stable independent state for Waziristan and others. So Afghanistan is becoming more turbulent, and the western side of Pakistan is becoming a wide-open hotbed of military activity too. Hell, its bordering on an open war zone! A couple of months ago, a small village/territory in Waziristan started flying an official Taliban flag and declared its independence from Pakistan. Talk about a shit storm coming!

Al-Qaeda aims at Pakistan’s heart

Long story short, shit has been hitting the fan, shit is hitting the fan, and a monster terd may be coming to smash the entire house where the fan is running. Elections which are due to be held this month will likely amount to nothing…since there is no singular popular strong figure for everyone to rally around. Mush will hold on for a bit longer, but the longer he hangs out, the more ripe Pakistan becomes for yet another military coup or a widespread anti-Mush riot which will probably end with the military declaring martial law again. Or worse. A bunch of people may get killed in such a political crackdown, and that will certainly spell the end of Mush’s presidency.

In other words, no good solution in sight. Possibilities include: a military coup ousting Mush; Mush may be assassinated too…but if he goes down it will be by insiders, not by terrorists; Mush may get sick of all the shit and step down voluntarily and call for snap elections; elections will proceed as scheduled, but accomplish little in terms of real change; a massive surge of terrorist/independence movement violence in the western regions which will over-tax the military and possibly crash the whole country; Waziristan declaring inpendence with a pro-Taliban government; and/or Dick Cheney declaring war on Asia.

Oh, and of course the reality may be that several of these options occur simultaneously. Ew. That will be a real pot of shit simmering on the world stove. Stir occasionally, and it will serve one to two billion. I suggest a crisp New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc with that dish!

Party on Pakistani-style. Which is to say: party like it’s your last day on earth.

-PA

Greetings friends! And damn did I get seriously sidetracked on the way to Siberia! Sorry for the extended blog departure, but I had an unexpected mission come up which involved 16 vestal virgins, 10 cases of Jägermeister, a cache of AK-47’s, a warm pretzel eating contest, and Angela Merkel. I know: it sounds complicated, and I cannot divest any of the details at the present time…mostly because I can’t remember many of them. But I’m back in fine form once again, and I woke up woozy in Uzbekistan just in time to tap into a tipple here in Tashkent….and catch the end of the SCO meeting. A meeting which continued to reaffirm my belief that Russia and China are becoming the best-est of buddies, much to the chagrin of ‘the West.’ Dig it:

Russian lovefest to the East…

Russian, Chinese PMs meet Central Asian allies

Premiers of SCO vow to enhance cooperation

Chinese premier: China-Russia relations at most important stage

Russian deputy PM hails Russian-Chinese theme years

Russian dissing to the West…

U.S. pushes to get Russia on its side

US disappointed in China, Russia response on Iran sanctions

Russia-EU Summit: A Nice Gathering with Few Results

Have a glass of vodka with your Moo Goo Gai Pan. Or a caviar filled egg-roll. ‘Cause that is the international cuisine paring of the future man! So what’s this all about? Well, in a nutshell, Russia and China are grooving to a mutual lovefest which is resulting in an undeclared new axis of power in the world….one that has serious repercussions for ‘Team West.’ All I know is, someone is going to lose their virginity on this one….and it is likely to be the US that gets screwed. Now before any of you start digging the hole for the underground bunker in your backyard in preparations for World War 3….just relax and hold on a minute. I’m not talking about open armed conflict, or even a return to a Cold War scenario. It’s much more subtle and simple than that. It’s more like this:

Russia and China’s new and strengthening alignment will be a source of friction and frustration for most US foreign policy in the coming decade. And beyond. One needs only look as far as the current story above which references Russia and China’s open willingness to block any US proposals on sanctions of Iran at the UN Permanent Security Council. But I am perhaps getting ahead of myself as usual…how did we get to this point?

Way back in 1991 when the USSR officially collapsed and ceased to exist, Russia was a complete basketcase of a country politically, economically, socially, and psychologically. They were losers with a capital LOSE. Communism had failed, they had lost the Cold War of ideology, they were bankrupt, and completely lost in the sauce on how to go forward. Throughout the 1990’s, Russia was the scene of a veritable ‘wild west’ of capitalism and democratic transition—meaning that there were no rules, largely unregulated privatization, and no boundaries for how the country underwent this massive transition from commie to capitalist/democratic.

The US and ‘Team West’ did try to help out as best as they could….while still maintaining their strategic edge (meaning they helped out as long as the relationship still tilted in their direction.) Team West encouraged privatization and opening markets as the ‘tough love’ route that had to be taken for Russia to go forward. While democracy did get advanced in this era, the market capitalism transition left most in the gutter with a bad taste in their mouth—a situation usually reserved for cheap vodka consumption on Friday nights. By 2000, the place was still awash in corruption, organized crime, endemic poverty, and a sense of national hopelessness that relegated the state to the history books.

By my how times change. Enter two factors into this Russian equation: Putin and petroleum. Vlad ‘the Man’ took over in 2000, roughly the exact same that oil prices began to rise…and they have been steadily rising ever since! Putin’s strong-arm tactics to clamp down on crime and chaos in the markets, coupled with his strong sense of nationalism, have given the Russian’s a source of pride that they haven’t known since the Sputnik satellite launch. And since Russia controls shit-tons of oil and natural gas, they have been getting exceptionally rich in the last seven years too. Sum up these factors and you get this: Russia is back, bee-yatch!

Massive sales of oil and natural gas have allowed the Ruskies to pay off their national debt. Like all of it. They don’t owe anybody a damn dime. Putin has also been very savvy about socking away a lot of that oil wealth for a rainy day. And he has been storing it legally in banks for future use of the state, as opposed to storing it in his private bank account, which of course is the type of corruption that happens all the time in lesser developed places with less of a sense of national pride. I’m telling you, this national pride shit has a lot to do with the current Russian success story…and Putin’s whack-crazy approval ratings too, which hover in the 80 to 90% range. Damn! G.W. would give his left nut for an 80% approval rating! But I digress…

Back to the stories above: The US and Team West have been assuming since 1991 that Russia would eventually join their team. I mean, their teams have so much in common already in terms of culture, religion, international business, technology and history. And Team West has been actively courting the Russians to side up with the West in terms of the war on terrorism, UN security council resolutions, perhaps even EU membership…and I even remember a time when NATO membership for Russia was a serious talking point.

But a funny thing happened on Russia’s way to joining Team West: they got their Russian groove back. They got an economy back. They got a nationalistic pride back. And most importantly, they have their sense of being a world power back. Oops. Looks like Russia is forming their own team again, as opposed to joining Team West. And that is exactly what I’m writing about today. Russia has turned east to embrace China. And embrace its former Central Asian possession of the –stan countries, and yes, even embrace Iran. The East is (at least for the time being) Russia’s focus for the future.

As the US and Western Europe continue to attempt to sweet talk the Russians, they are doing so with increasingly less and less bait to attract their former Cold War adversaries. And Russia is increasingly holding all the aces in this poker match. And Russia knows it. Thus, they are playing their hands on foreign policy from a position of power. The Ruskies are now in a position to play off all the other powers at their own whim, seeking out the most advantageous situations for themselves, with extremely limited repercussions from the US, Team West, or really anybody else. Meaning, they simply cannot lose anymore. What do I mean they can’t lose?

Well, let’s summarize on just a few of the points mentioned in the stories above:

Economically, if we go no further than to consider the role of oil and natural gas, then Russia is in the catbird’s seat for at least another decade…or ten. Russia supplies at least 1/3 of Europe’s energy needs. That’s Western and Eastern Europe. And it’s not just about the money being made either: tremendous political power has now been bestowed on Russia since those European powers get so much of their energy from the Bear. Translation: if you piss off Russia, you may get your heating oil turned off…in January. Think I’m making this shit up? Ask Belarus and Poland how fictional that story is. Then ask them how cold it gets in January.

But wait! Its not just Europe. China is energy hungry too, and the Russians are now establishing all kinds of relationships to transport more oil and natural gas then ever to their new Chinese friends. As China continues to explode economically, Russia will continue to get rich exponentially since they will be supplying the energy for this growth. Whoops! I almost forgot Japan! Japan wants as much Russian oil as it can get too, so there will never be any shortage of demand for Ruskies petroleum products in the East. Which means of course that Russia can play both sides of the continent against each other to jack up demand…and prices!

For now, the Chinese are winning this petroleum pissing match, as the Russians continue to forge new ties, build new pipelines, and sign new contracts with their eastern friends…but openly dissed the meeting with EU countries last week as ‘a waste of time.’

Strategically, Russia has also been busy strengthening its hand in the SCO. Big time. Don’t know your SCO? Better dig this then: You Gotsta’ Know the SCO!!! Within the SCO framework, China and Russia have basically been conducting an orgy of trade agreements, energy security agreements, economic and infrastructure projects and even military exercise co-ordination. They haven’t been doing any of that shit with Team West! And here’s why: as a member of the SCO, Russia is a leader. As a member of the EU or NATO, Russia is a follower. Got it? The Russians do, and they dig it.

Finally, politically the Russians and Chinese are in bed together like never before…mostly in the sense that they are now openly countering US foreign policies on the world stage. Putin’s position of power affords him the ability to completely piss off the West…‘cause he can always just chill with the Chinese chaps. This has come into play in current events in several ways:

1) Putin has been openly critical of the US plan to put a ‘missile shield’ in Eastern Europe. So critical in fact, that he is saying that this shield will cause another Cold War, and the Russians have pulled out of treaties which have limited the production of certain types of missiles. Putin has also overseen the resumption of old Cold War bomber patrols across Russian territory, as well as the creation and testing of a ‘super-bomb.’ He is causing such a ruckus over the planned missile defense systems, that he now almost literally has the US kissing his ass and begging him to allow the plan to go through. It is interesting to note that the two sites which will house this defense system are Poland and the Czech Republic: two countries which are heavily reliant on Russian fuel to get thru the long winter. Starting to get the picture here of how this shit is working?

2) Iran. Iran’s continued foray into developing a nuclear industry (and perhaps a nuclear bomb) has pitted the Russian-Chinese axis against Team West. Putin has cozied up to Iran if for no other reason than to check-and checkmate with the US on foreign policy issues. Nobody really thinks that Putin has a lovefest with Iran, but he is in a position to counter any moves towards US sanctions or even an US invasion of Iran should it come down to that. Again, start to put the pieces of the puzzle together: if the US continues to make moves towards the missile defense shield…then Russia will strengthen its support for an Iranian nuke industry. If the US/Team West pisses off Russia about anything, then Russia will use its veto power on the UN Permanent Security Council to stop any international action dead in its tracks. Both Russia and China are now dropping hints that they are prepared to do just that.

3) The SCO is continuing to grow in functionality and membership. It is starting to look a lot like a combo NATO/EU of the east…with Russia as a real leader. And watch out for this big bombshell to be dropped in the near future: Russia is going to lead the formation of a natural gas cartel of Asia, with themselves in the center. Quote from SCO meeting on Friday: “Russia has also proposed the establishment of an “energy club” to complement the SCO regional security bloc, said Ivan Materov, Russian deputy minister of industry and energy.” The Plaid Avenger sez: Watch out OPEC, here comes ‘SCO’-PEC! Man! That will be some serious shit hitting the fan!

But enough speculation and assessment for now. Just know this: Russia is turning east to be a leader, and away from the west where it would be conscripted to be a follower. It’s not really surprising I suppose. I think its more the speed at which Russia has gone from being a zero to be a hero…or at least to being a major force in the world again. But all this talk of Russia has built my thirst and whetted my appetite. I think its time for a few dozen Oysters shooters, Moscow-style. What? Never had it? Dig:

Moscow Oyster Shooters, Plaid Avenger recipe:

• 3 dozen Pacific Oysters on the half-shell
• Add a small dollop of horseradish sauce in middle of oyster
• A teaspoon of Beluga caviar on top of dollop
• Pour over one shot of Stolichnaya Red Russian vodka
• Squeeze lemon wedge over entire batch
• Go to work

Oh hell yeah!

Hello again fair and fanciful friends! It is I The Plaid Avenger, coming at you live from Nigeria where I have been partying all day with my main man Manmohan Singh….that would be Prime Minister Singh to you! But he ain’t no politician from Nigeria my brothers and sisters; he is the leader of India. So what’s this Indian brother doin’ hanging in western Africa? I’m glad you asked! It’s got everything to do with India’s thirst for energy…two different types of energy to be exact, combining two different issues with two different Indian allies…but all the shit is going down at once! Dig it:

Indian prime minister seeks more trade with oil-rich Nigeria

India’s ties with Nigeria, Africa enter new era

India eyes Nigeria energy

PM moots strategic ties with Nigeria

Manmohan To Bush: Difficulties In Implementing N-deal

Singh’s Nuclear-Energy U-Turn Lets India Down

Difficulties in n-deal operationalisation, Singh tells Bush

Our main man from New Delhi has been meeting with the Nigerian President Umaru Yar’Adua today to firm up a whole shitload of commitments between the two countries. India and Nigeria want to work together to increase trade between the states; to form a united front to counter the current international financial systems which are not very ‘developing-country friendly’; and even to work together to ensure that India gets a primo spot on the UN Permanent Security Council…should that group ever get around to expanding. But mostly they talked about cash! Oops, I mean economic ties…that’s the more politically correct term for politicians…

But dudes, we all know its about the dollars man! These two world leader cats were cementing trade deals and promising investment packages and doing everything they can to work together better. Nigeria is India’s largest trading partner on the planet, and the Nigerians are anxious about getting more basic manufactures and cheap shit from India, in return for some resources that the Nigerians hook up the Indians with. Africa as a continent is just loaded with resources that rich and poor countries alike are hungry for. Lots of resources!

Dollars and resources! And the one resource in particular that India gets is…can you possibly even guess?….it’s oil! Nigeria is the world’s 8^th largest exporter of oil on the planet right now, and India is the 6^th largest user of oil on the planet….and here is the kicker: India ain’t got none of their own! None! They’ve got to import it all baby! So Singh and his boys from Bollywood can claim that they are hooking up with the Nigerians for a million and one different reasons…but we all know that it’s really all about that petroleum! India has got to have the oil, man!

Oh BTW, when countries talk about getting oil nowadays, they refer to it as ‘energy security talks’ Ha! I got something you can secure! What the hell ever! You guys are talking about buying and selling oil, and the Avenger knows this!

And Singh knows this too. India must have energy to continue on their path of development. They must have the go-go juice in order to build and operate all those new factories and industries which will be supplying the world with lots of cheap labor trinkets. India also has serious development in the high-end computer and software sectors too…and you need energy to keep those screens on as well. And there is the small matter of a billion people in the country that would like to have lights and TVs and microwave ovens and all that shit. Therefore, India must import more and more energy in order to keep their economy running….ergo, they import a fuck-ton of oil from Nigeria.

But wait…I thought the world was trying to get away from oil dependence? Why don’t the Indians just use some other type of energy? Well, as stated above, India ain’t got no oil. They do have some coal, but that is awfully polluting fuel for a billion people to use. As is wood. Or dried cow dung. So India simply doesn’t have a lot of energy options. Oh! Oh….wait! Oh….Oh….Oh…I got it! Call on me teacher! I’ve got the answer! Call on me! My hand is up!…How about nuclear energy? Yeah! Damn I’m good. See, India already has nuclear technology; hell, it has a nuclear program and nuclear bombs! So they can just start making nuclear energy….right?

Wrong! Check the other stories above for the ‘no to nukes’ bomb that Singh dropped today. Pun intended. US President Bush had to call back Indian Prime Minister Singh while he was in Nigeria today to hear the bad news that a proposed Indian-US nuke deal was going to get shot down in the Indian Congress. How bizarre is that story? US calls India in Nigeria. Confused enough yet? Let me clarify quickly…

Almost all the major world powers which possess nuclear weapons have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which basically states that they won’t proliferate or distribute nuke technology to anybody else. However, I did say almost all. India, Pakistan and Israel are three states known to possess nuke technology, but who have not signed this treaty—and all for very, very different reasons too, which I won’t get into here. As you can imagine, this treaty is mostly to ensure that nobody is making nuke weapons, but nuke power technology is allowed by the NPT, which makes enforcement of it tricky…i.e. see IRAN in current events.

Just know this for now: if you aren’t signed up for the treaty, then you are not allowed to access civilian nuke technology or buy fuel for nuke energy production either. Which is why India is stuck. But the US likes India! The UN likes India! Hell, everybody likes India! Okay, maybe not Pakistan. But most of the world sees India as a multi-cultural society and stable democracy that is developing rapidly in the modern world. And since they already have the nuke technology, most think they can handle nuke energy. But that pesky NPT! What to do about that?

Well, US President George Bush thought of what to do a few years back: bend it a little. In an effort to strengthen US-Indian ties, Georgie has been working tirelessly (okay, someone who works for Georgie has been working tirelessly) to make India the exception to this NPT rule. The United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act of 2006 is the legal framework for a bilateral pact between the US and India under which the US will provide access to civilian nuclear tech stuff and access to nuke fuel in exchange for IAEA-safeguards on civilian Indian reactors.

In other words, the US will personally work with India to get them the goods (nuke energy technologies and fuel) and in return India promises to abide by all the major rules of the NPT (especially the ‘no proliferating’ part) and the IAEA—International Atomic Energy Agency—would also be participating to do inspections and enforce the rules.

Everybody was all about this shit man! Mohammad El Baradei of the IAEA thought it was a good idea. Prime Minister Singh thought it was sweet that India would be getting all kinds of cheap fuel for his economy. Sweet!

And the Bush Administration? Holy shit! They were tickled pink! Not only would the US get to make tons of money on selling India nuke secrets and fuel, but US corporations were going to be getting a hefty share of building the nuke plants to boot! And the US really wants the growing Indian economy to produce its own fuel….thereby lessening its demand for world oil…lower Indian demand means more left over for us! At cheaper prices too! President Bush whipped up this agreement overnight, got it passed by Congress and signed it into law in a hot shit minute. The IAEA was working out the details, and all that was left to do was have the Indians formally sign the treaty. Let’s get this game on! Win-win-win baby!

Oops. Unfortunately it lost-lost-lost. That’s what the sad phone call from Nigeria to Air Force One was about earlier today. The Indian political system is one of those kind of freaky parliamentary systems where there is no clear cut political party in power. Like in the US right now, the Democrats control the House, the Republicans control the White House, etc. But in India, there is like 50 different parties in Congress, and for a Prime Minister to get any piece of legislation passed, he has to have a whole shitload of parties working together. He has to form a coalition government to get things done.

You dig what I’m saying? The coalition is comprised of a bunch of different political parties that together form a majority. On top of that, this coalition that forms has the responsibility of electing the Prime Minister himself. Which means if enough folks in the coalition get pissed, they can actually crash the whole government by declaring a stalemate…in which new elections would be called for and a new Prime Minister picked.

Long story short, that is where our main man Manmohan Singh found himself over this Indian-US nuke deal. A main party named BJP declared that India’s entering this agreement with the US would compromise their national security by limiting their weapons program. Worse yet, a bunch of Commie/Marxist parties declared their boycott of the nuke deal on the grounds that it made India a subservient pawn to the ‘imperialist policies of the U.S.A.’. Dudes, did anyone tell those Indian commies that the Cold War is over? Read the papers man!

Anyway, this rant is over. End game: Prime Minister Singh had to throw in the towel this weekend. If he would have pushed harder, there was a threat that the BJP and the commies could have gone for the government crash, so Singh let it drop. Singh has egg all over his face, because he swore this deal was going to go thru, and now he kind of looks like a dork. The Bush administration/The US takes a serious hit too because this was one of the only bright spots of foreign policy they have been able to muster for 7 years. They were really fired up to be making India a stronger ally. Oh well, that may still come to pass. But for now: no nukes in India, India is tied to oil dependence, and the US will have to figure out some new ways for people around the word to stop using all the oil that we want for ourselves. Go get’em fellas!

What is happening my plaid party people? The Avenger decided to stay on here in Russia for another day to work off my wicked Putin-induced vodka martini hangover…and to investigate the nationalization of Russian oil; a process that has also been going down in Kazakhstan, in Bolivia, and in Venezuela too. And man, the US and other western countries get pissed about nationalization—they only want to hear about privatization! What’s that? You don’t recognize these terms? Well, you’ve got to know about this shit to understand the world my affable and affluent amigos! Start learning the ins and outs of economic control with these stories:

How Russia is Nationalized: The Oil Sector

Zimbabwe Votes to Take Control of Foreign-Owned Mines

Exxon pursues arbitration against Venezuela over seizure of oil assets

Chavez threatens to nationalize Venezuelan private schools

Bolivian President Seizes Gas Industry

…and the opposite side of the coin:

Japan begins privatization of its mammoth postal system

Activists Oppose Egyptian Healthcare Privatization

Iran to Privatize Airline, Banks

India’s Privatization Plan Is On Track

So what’s the deal with these two terms? They are polar opposites my friends, and folks around the planet have passionate views about the good or evil effects that nationalization or privatization can produce. People get downright hot and bothered about these terms! And in some circumstances, initiating these actions has caused political dissent, diplomatic friction, or outright violent hostilities between peoples, companies, and even countries! Damn! Why so much heat? First…what are they?

Nationalization is a process whereby a government takes control of an economic activity that was owned by and/or run by private individuals/companies hands. It could be transportation, corn, water, uranium, or even bananas…but usually it happens to high-dollar commodities. For example: Exxon acquires rights thru a government contract to pump shit tons of oil out of selected oil fields in Venezuela. Exxon goes there and sets up shop, building infrastructure like the oil wells and pipelines, and starts pumping and exporting oil. But then Hugo Chavez gets elected President of Venezuela and decides that Exxon is making too much money on that oil, and since the oil is actually in his country, he decides to take it back. All of it. So Hugo would nationalize the field, along with all the infrastructure that’s now on it, and send Exxon packing. Can you dig that?

But it never really works that simply. Even in this Venezuela/Exxon example (which actually happened) Hugo didn’t simply just kick Exxon out and take their shit; he offered to buy back their shares and their investments at a fair market value. Sometimes the parties have to go to court to negotiate these settlements (see Exxon story above). Nationalization of an industry often involves the government simply re-writing all prior contracts with the companies in such a way that the state owns more than 50% of the action. But make no bones about it: if the companies refuse to co-operate or sell back their shares, then the state will just take the shit from them!

And OMG nationalization so completely pisses off ‘the West’…especially the US! Why? Well, where do you think all the big multinational corporations are from? That’s right! Most of those companies doing business abroad (and that get their shit nationalized) are from the US/Europe. So those countries feel obliged to stick up for the rich dudes who lost their shit. Sometimes they fell so obliged that they might invade the country, or even assassinate the leader who oversaw the nationalization. Or in the case of Chavez…threaten to. Sound crazy? Yeah, it is.

So why would a state do this nationalization gig? Sometimes its done to protect a critical industry in times of war or emergency (some countries have nationalized steel during wartimes); sometimes its done because the industry is a matter of national security (Israel runs its airline industry); sometimes its done to an industry that is floundering and about to crash on its own (perhaps the US/health care issue).  But more often than not, a state will reclaim rights on an industry that it feels it’s getting ripped off in. Stick with the oil example: when Exxon or Shell or anybody else is pumping oil out of Venezuela or Nigeria, the corporation is making the lion’s share of the profits. The Avenger will just make up some numbers to help you get the point:

Let’s say a barrel of crude sells for $50 on the international market; Exxon may pay $5 to Venezuela for every barrel pumped out, thus leaving $45 for their own pockets. But people in Venezuela may say: “WTF?” “It’s oil from out country….but we only get 1/10 of the sale? That is a shitty deal!” And if enough folks in the government think that way, then they may make moves to nationalize the oil industry and rework the system to get more of the cash. Does that make sense? Venezuela did it. Russia did it. Bolivia did it. Kazakhstan is thinking about it.

Oh, by the way, did you see President Evo Morales of Bolivia on the Daily Show with John Stewart last week? Totally hilarious! And Evo referenced why he decided to nationalize his countries oil and natural gas: “On the issue of nationalization of oil and gas,” Morales said, “in 2005, before I came president, the Bolivian state received only 300 million dollars from its oil and gas exports. And now since they’ve been nationalized, the Bolivian state receives more than two billion dollars. Therefore, we followed through on what we promised.”

Are you starting to realize why this is happening at this particular juncture in history, particularly in the energy sectors? If you answered: ‘because the price of oil is freakin’ high, and expected to get even higher’ than you win the prize! Oil producing states see the future sales going nowhere but up, and want to have a bigger slice of the pie for themselves. Oil is one of those special commodities that kind of defies free market capitalism–in that lots of states control their industry as opposed to letting private individuals run the show. See map below for a few countries of note… And while die-hard capitalist countries claim that governments cannot run industries as well as private corporations, those states that are controlling their oil do seem to be making a holy shit load of cash right now…despite the fact that the private industry isn’t in charge. And speaking of private….

Privatization is precisely the opposite of nationalization: it’s when a state sells off an industry or business that it controls to a private entity, most often a company/corporation. Look to the above story from Japan for your best example of that right now: Japan sold its postal system to a private company. Wow! The whole damn post office! Why would countries sell an asset like the post office or the telecom industry? Because most free-market capitalist societies believe that private individuals and businesses simply run things better. That’s the bottom line.

The theory goes like this: because private entities are motivated to maximize profits, they will do a better job making an industry like a post office more efficient, or they will work harder to find more oil, and are more flexible to invent new technologies and try new approaches which make the business run the best. Remember: one of the golden rules of capitalism is that competition will weed out the least efficient, and the better mousetrap will win every time. Folks of this opinion believe that governments are clunky, inefficient—and because they don’t have to compete with anybody—are uncompetitive! No shit? Lack of competition makes you become uncompetitive? Yeah, I can dig that!

Places like India and China have just figured this stuff out in the last couple of decades, and are privatizing like mad right now. India has recently privatized its transportation system, its telecommunications system, and anything else it can get its hands on to sell! China too has increasingly let out the reigns on its prior control of everything economic (during its botched attempt at communism) and that place is a venerable wild west of capitalism! Even Iran is in the privatization game…and they usually despise all ideas that are western in origin. There must be something to it!

And its not like the governments simply privatize the industry and then just walk away poorer for the experience. Capitalist theory would suggest that not only does the state make money on the initial sale of the industry, but in the long run will make way more in profits by simply taking a cut of the profits and/or taxing the service/product. Since private business will do it better, there will be more oil or more uranium or more corn or more stamped letters to tax…therefore the state makes more money! And without having to actually spend money running the damn show! You dig?

Does it sound like I’m picking sides on this nationalize/privatize debate? Don’t be fooled. The Plaid Avenger is here to tell you this: this is complicated shit, and there is no wrong or right side here. It really goes on a case by case basis in my book. Does private industry typically do shit better than government-run shit? Absolutely! Are some countries getting totally reamed by some private corporations? Absolutely! Are some states unfairly grabbing shit from corporations whose time and investments made the industry profitable in the first place? Absolutely! Are some multinational corporations total scumbags who use their money and power to corrupt and control industries within a state? Ab-so-fucking-lutely!

So pay attention to which states are selling, and which states are buying, their industries. And also pay attention to which industries are up for grabs. You will hear a lot in the US about the possible nationalization of health care; in India about the privatization of telecoms; in Russia about the nationalization of the oil industry; and in Japan the privatization of the post…and now you know what that shit means, but more importantly, why it is happening…

I just hope I can still get my damn collectable Godzilla stamps in Toyko…even if it is from a private vendor…