Ships Ahoy! Shit Heating Up on the High Seas from Plaid Avenger on Vimeo.

Quicktime:

 Ships Ahoy! Shit Heating Up on the High Seas [13:55m]: Download

Muammar: Middle East Mad Dog Now Admirable African from Plaid Avenger on Vimeo.

Quicktime:

 Podcast Video [12:58m]: Download

 

 Podcast Video [14:13m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Some Egyptian Election stories that would titillate King Tut:

Low turnout in Egypt elections

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood To Boycott Local Elections

Amid violent riots, Egyptian elections fizzle

Greetings global watchers, and sorry for my week long hiatus. While reporting on the events in Gaza, I was invited to a Hamas hookah house party…which was a total blast. Literally! An Israeli airstrike brought the whole house down. What a rush! By the time I was unburied from the rubble and sobered up, Egypt had resealed the border so it took me a little time to sneak back across to a Jordanian internet café. Long story short, we need to finish our Gaza story…

So where the hell did I leave off? Oh yes, Fatah friends and Hamas Haters…and now we can point out how this situation has played out in the current border breech debacle. Since Hamas kicked Fatah out of the Gaza Strip, Israel and all its western allies (namely the US) have basically tried to make life a living hell for Hamas. Why? To get them the hell out of power because they refuse to recognize the right of Israel to exist, and therefore cannot play a part in the peace process. In other words, due to Hamas’ political ideology, Israel and ‘Team West’ simply cannot interact with them at all, cannot give them an ounce of legitimacy at all, and cannot play ball with them at all…not even for a backyard pick-up game of Nerf! And since Hamas also uses suicide bombers and keeps lobbing homemade rockets over the wall into Israel, they are labeled as terrorists…and thus most western governments do not want to negotiate with terrorists. It should be noted that the rockets that Hamas lobs over the wall are about as tactically effective as lobbing over Nerf balls.

So how are Israel and Team West trying to crush Hamas? Why, by crushing the entire Gaza Strip of course! That is how this whole current mess started. Israel (with complicity from the West) slapped down the entire area with an embargo seven months ago, sealed off the borders, cut off the electricity and stopped all movement of virtually all goods and services. This was done for two reasons: 1)To punish Hamas and further demonstrate that the West hates them, and 2) To punish the inhabitants of the Gaza Strip so badly that they would turn on Hamas and stage some sort of coup. Everyone already knew #1….and #2 simply didn’t really happen. And Israel and Team West really hates that #2 didn’t happen….but don’t we all hate when an expected #2 doesn’t happen? My advice: eat more bran!

This ‘starving out’ of the Gaza Strip really reached a fever pitch as the Israelis (again, with complicity from the EU and the US) started shutting off the power about a month ago. And this fever pitch of desperation brings us back full circle to the events of two weeks ago—people got so desperate in Gaza that they blew a fucking hole in the wall on the Gaza/Egypt border, and spilled out en masse to buy food, fuel, smokes, and some more Nerf footballs. That’s it. That’s why it happened. And for two weeks, Egypt has largely allowed this to go on, trying more to control the flow of folks as opposed to outright stopping them. However they just did rebuild and secure the wall two days ago…so the wall breach is officially over, for now.

But this Gaza ‘break-out’ of course defeated the whole point of the embargo, and it seriously pissed off Israel, the US and most in the EU. And who suffered the brunt of this rage? Egypt of course! Egypt has been stuck right in the middle of this shit storm, and everything they do pisses someone off! How so?

Here’s how: Egypt is an Arab state and as such has sympathies for the plight of the Palestinian Arabs in Gaza, which is why they allowed the wall breach to go on for so long without going ape shit and shooting people. In fact, most of the Arab world was glad to see Egypt easing the situation for the Gaza folks by letting them re-supply. But of course the soft stance that Egypt took totally pissed off Israel and the US, which has been beating them down and badgering the Egyptians to re-seal the border as fast as possible. Why should Egypt do anything those countries say? Because they are a huge US ally, and the #3 recipient of US foreign aid…that’s why! Egypt has also signed a peace agreement with Israel, and therefore is kind of an ‘ally’ to them as well…although that definition may be pushing it just a little.

To appease the US and ‘Team West’, Egypt has made moves to tighten the flow of people, and it eventually did rebuild and seal the wall on Wednesday of this week…but of course that pissed off all the folks in Gaza, as well as pissing off a lot of Arabs across the entire Middle East that interpret this as Egypt sucking up to America. Well, yeah, kind of I guess, but what else are they to do? Completely open the border altogether? Hmmm….some have suggested just that, and in fact there is some speculation that maybe Egypt should just take over the entire damn Gaza Strip and make it part of Egypt! Dig:

How to Turn Gaza Over to Egypt

However, Egypt has put forth a resounding ‘Hell-freakin-no!’ to that idea already. They want to get out of this shit storm as fast as possible, and many Egyptians are plenty pissed that anyone would even suggest that they fully adopt this bullshit situation to fix on their own. Why the hell should they fix the fucking mess that 60 years of Arab-Israeli hi-jinks have created? Our main man Hosni Mubarak don’t want to touch that shit! In fact, Egypt is basically pushing for ANYBODY to come take over this border area from them, so they can get out of the middle of the mayhem. They have even put forth a proposal for the Fatah controlled Palestinian Authority in West Bank (remember them?) to take over security at the border…a move which you should have instantaneously predicted would totally piss of Hamas:

Egypt wants PA back on Gaza border

Egypt boosts troop security along border with Gaza amid alleged Hamas’ kidnapping threat

So now Hamas is pissed at Egypt, the Arab World is not happy with Egypt, and the US/Israel still don’t think Egypt is doing enough to control the border. Damn! Egypt just pisses everybody off, no matter what they do! Sucks to be Egypt!

And the future? Not hard to predict…it is already upon us. Shit, shit and more shit to come for the Israelis, the Gaza inhabitants, and anyone who is trying to work for a single ‘Palestine’ state solution. And we won’t have long to wait to see my predictions come true, as things are turning even nastier, even faster than usual:

Israel-Gaza Fighting Escalates

Cycle of violence continues in Gaza

Tensions in Gaza escalate

A Coming Hamas-Israel War?

So the Gazans feel that their backs are against a wall and that the Israeli embargo will starve them all to death, so they feel compelled to act with violence. Hamas apparently sanctioned a suicide bomber to blow up people in Dimona on Monday, and Hamas also continues to fire rockets into southern Israel on a regular basis. This infuriates Israel, which in turn decided to make the embargos even more harsh, and also to conduct air strikes in Gaza. Senior officials in Israel are now discussing the possibility of targeting all Hamas politicians. All these moves further isolate people in Gaza and make them feel that there backs are against the wall which compels them to act with violence…wait a damn minute! This is one of those vicious circle deals! This really sucks!

Full-on war is coming to this place my friends, and coming soon. I stand by the prediction I made back in the summer: the two-state solution is totally dead—meaning that the idea of a peace process between a state called Israel and a state called Palestine can no longer happen, since Palestine itself is fractured. The Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip will never reunite with the Fatah-controlled West Bank. But something is going to happen. Probably something shitty. I look for Hamas to continue to piss off Israel, which will inevitably lead to a full military invasion of Gaza by the Israelis….and I’ll even give you a sudden flash of brilliance that occurred to me on how they will do it: Watch for a fully funded Fatah army to lead such a charge, or certainly be there to mop up and take over once Israel levels the place. Just an instinct on my part, but it is no guesswork that Fatah is already being funded and vamped up by Team West to ultimately control this territory again, and from past blogs you should know why!

Some of you may be asking: “But Plaid, why doesn’t the UN just come in and take over this mess?” That is an excellent question that is worthy of another blog, perhaps you would like me to visit the UN Security Council and ask them personally?….or would you like me to head to some other hotspots to see what’s up…maybe Kenya?…maybe Chad?…maybe a XXX nightclub on the outskirts of Amsterdam? I am your humble servant my friends, so drop me a line on this blog decide where my next adventure will take me…

Until then, Party in Plaid.

-PA

[NOTE TO PLAID FRIENDS: I posted this blog 5 months ago exactly as you see it below. I was going to edit and update it, but the dead-on accuracy of my plaid predictions boosted my ego way too much for me to change it…and it is still informative enough for you to get the gist of what the hell I’m talkin’ about. Damn! When you’re good, you’re good….and when you’re me, you’re better!]

Greetings again Plaid Friends! The Avenger has returned after four shots to do part four of this freaky blog, with this episode focusing on how Fatah is feeling frisky and free, while its Hamas rivals are hopelessly hammered and hamstrung. What the fuck am I talking about? If you have read the previous blogs on this subject, you now understand that the Fatah political party in Palestine was run out of the Gaza section and now is concentrated in, and outright controls, the West Bank section. Hamas is the other Palestinian political party—you know, the ones that are labeled as a terrorist group by some—and are in control of the Gaza Strip section of Palestine. These two political parties now hate each other even more fervently than they did before this open rift physically separated the pseudo-state we call Palestine.

As the Plaid Avenger now sees it, the idea of a singular state called Palestine which consists of both the Gaza and the West Bank is officially and completely fucking DEAD. And even if the peace process as a whole isn’t dead, then certainly Hamas and the whole Gaza population is being pushed to the brink of extinction….and most of the outside world is helping accelerate this demise. Don’t believe me? Then check these out:

EU cuts dim Gaza’s power supply

UN warns over Gaza economic woe

Japan resumes direct aid to support Abbas

Abbas issues decree excluding Hamas from elections

Israel to free inmates this week

US in $80m Palestinian aid deal

So what’s the real deal here Plaid? I’m glad you asked. Because while it completely sucks for Hamas and all the inhabitants of the Gaza Strip, its quite easy to explain the state of affairs in this Palestinian situation. And here we go: Hamas is screwed. Gaza is screwed. Mahmoud Abbas is the favorite son of ‘the West’ and therefore stands to gain tremendously for both his party but also for the West Bank in its entirety. Fatah will emerge as the triumphant and most powerful political party in Palestine. Let’s take these one at a time, shall we?

Hamas is screwed. Why? Because they are the group that is despised by Israel and ‘the West’ because they have a militant wing of their party that condones suicide bombings and calls for the destruction of Israel. As pointed out in a previous blog, most of Hamas is not that radical, but the small minority that are have gotten the entire political party labeled as such. This is the primary reason why Israel, the US, the EU and many other international players are completely turning their backs on Hamas and refusing to recognize them as a real and legitimate political party that controls Gaza. [Never mind that Hamas actually won the power in democratic elections…] To compound the outsiders’ hate of Hamas, the fact that Hamas physically and succinctly kicked Fatah out of the Gaza Strip last summer has only served to piss off the international players on this stage even more. So how to punish Hamas, this group that is so despised? Well, that leads to point #2….

Gaza is screwed. In an effort to destabilize, demoralize, and outright destroy Hamas power, almost all international actors are isolating and punishing the inhabitants of the Gaza Strip. Check stories above for just a few references. International aid has been slashed, EU is shutting down its power plant that provides electricity, and Israel has tightened all economic activities across the borders in Gaza to the point that there really is no economy at all. Essentially, the whole group is being starved out as punishment for first off electing the Hamas leadership, and secondly for supporting the expulsion of Fatah, and thirdly for allowing Hamas to continue to remain in power. Sound fucking harsh? Yeah, it does to me too, but I’m not here to get on a political soapbox and generate sympathy…I just want you to understand what the hell is going on. However, while the Gaza Strip is getting shattered, not everybody is a loser in this game….consider Abbas and Fatah…

Mahmoud Abbas is still the leader of the Fatah political Party, and the leader of the PLO, and now the de facto leader of the West Bank. And life is looking awfully cheery for him right now. Look again at the stories linked above. In just the last 6 months, here has what has happened to Abbas and his Fatah party:

1. Official recognition as the legitimate rulers of Palestine (whatever that means anymore)
2. US, Israel, and the EU resumed all international aid programs to the West Bank–in effect, directly to Fatah since they control the West Bank (BTW…Gaza is excluded from all this aid)
3. Israel released a shitload of Fatah political prisoners from its jails as a token of goodwill
4. US, EU, Israel and even Russia have increased international investment into the West Bank
5. Abbas has met with pretty much every important world leader in the last month. None have gone to Gaza.

Starting to get the picture here? The long and short of it is that the outside world is legitimizing Abbas and Fatah in an effort to further isolate Hamas. Why? Go back to Fatah blog again and check it out. Under Arafat, Fatah denounced terrorism and suicide bombings, and recognized the right of Israel to exist. While not all folks in Fatah may actually believe in those pledges, it is precisely the reason that Israel, the US, and the EU are currently supporting them over their political rivals Hamas, which of course has not done any of those things.

And quite frankly, I think that’s probably all you need to know right now to understand exactly what is happening, and what the very likely outcome will be. Now you understand why Gaza is being isolated and starved…don’t you? Now you understand why Abbas is ‘the West’s’ best friend….don’t you? And perhaps you now understand why the idea of a single Palestinian state comprised of both Gaza and the West Bank together is completely fucked….don’t you?

The future is not hard to predict either: as millions in aid and international recognition flows to Abbas and Fatah in the West Bank, they will thrive and become richer. More importantly, they will be recognized internationally as the true voice of the Palestinian state….whatever that means. For instance, if there is to be a Palestinian seat at the UN, it will definitely be filled with a guy from Fatah. No doubts. Israel and the US in particular will make it their mission to pull the West Bank from squalor to make sure that the world sees a state that has denounced terrorism become a success story in the Middle East. Will it actually happen? Hell if I know, but I bet you will increasingly see lots of ‘success stories’ reported out of the West Bank.

And Gaza? Well, grinding poverty produces two things: 1)lots of suffering and death and 2)further radicalization of radical people. Surprise, surprise! Things are going to suck even worse for those folks, and some of those folks will get even more extreme. What a shocker. To be fair, Israel, the US and the EU are probably hoping that their tough stance towards Hamas will effect some sort of softening of Hamas’ stance, or perhaps that the locals will overthrow Hamas and then beg ‘the West’ for forgiveness, but the Avenger does not see that happening anytime soon. One thing is for certain: Palestine is now two distinct entities, and the West Bank will certainly soon achieve state status, but Gaza is likely to flounder into nothingness…

What do you think? Your comments and questions are welcome. Hope this Palestinian tutorial helped you understand this mess a little better. Time for a drink….