Greetings friends! And damn did I get seriously sidetracked on the way to Siberia! Sorry for the extended blog departure, but I had an unexpected mission come up which involved 16 vestal virgins, 10 cases of Jägermeister, a cache of AK-47’s, a warm pretzel eating contest, and Angela Merkel. I know: it sounds complicated, and I cannot divest any of the details at the present time…mostly because I can’t remember many of them. But I’m back in fine form once again, and I woke up woozy in Uzbekistan just in time to tap into a tipple here in Tashkent….and catch the end of the SCO meeting. A meeting which continued to reaffirm my belief that Russia and China are becoming the best-est of buddies, much to the chagrin of ‘the West.’ Dig it:

Russian lovefest to the East…

Russian, Chinese PMs meet Central Asian allies

Premiers of SCO vow to enhance cooperation

Chinese premier: China-Russia relations at most important stage

Russian deputy PM hails Russian-Chinese theme years

Russian dissing to the West…

U.S. pushes to get Russia on its side

US disappointed in China, Russia response on Iran sanctions

Russia-EU Summit: A Nice Gathering with Few Results

Have a glass of vodka with your Moo Goo Gai Pan. Or a caviar filled egg-roll. ‘Cause that is the international cuisine paring of the future man! So what’s this all about? Well, in a nutshell, Russia and China are grooving to a mutual lovefest which is resulting in an undeclared new axis of power in the world….one that has serious repercussions for ‘Team West.’ All I know is, someone is going to lose their virginity on this one….and it is likely to be the US that gets screwed. Now before any of you start digging the hole for the underground bunker in your backyard in preparations for World War 3….just relax and hold on a minute. I’m not talking about open armed conflict, or even a return to a Cold War scenario. It’s much more subtle and simple than that. It’s more like this:

Russia and China’s new and strengthening alignment will be a source of friction and frustration for most US foreign policy in the coming decade. And beyond. One needs only look as far as the current story above which references Russia and China’s open willingness to block any US proposals on sanctions of Iran at the UN Permanent Security Council. But I am perhaps getting ahead of myself as usual…how did we get to this point?

Way back in 1991 when the USSR officially collapsed and ceased to exist, Russia was a complete basketcase of a country politically, economically, socially, and psychologically. They were losers with a capital LOSE. Communism had failed, they had lost the Cold War of ideology, they were bankrupt, and completely lost in the sauce on how to go forward. Throughout the 1990’s, Russia was the scene of a veritable ‘wild west’ of capitalism and democratic transition—meaning that there were no rules, largely unregulated privatization, and no boundaries for how the country underwent this massive transition from commie to capitalist/democratic.

The US and ‘Team West’ did try to help out as best as they could….while still maintaining their strategic edge (meaning they helped out as long as the relationship still tilted in their direction.) Team West encouraged privatization and opening markets as the ‘tough love’ route that had to be taken for Russia to go forward. While democracy did get advanced in this era, the market capitalism transition left most in the gutter with a bad taste in their mouth—a situation usually reserved for cheap vodka consumption on Friday nights. By 2000, the place was still awash in corruption, organized crime, endemic poverty, and a sense of national hopelessness that relegated the state to the history books.

By my how times change. Enter two factors into this Russian equation: Putin and petroleum. Vlad ‘the Man’ took over in 2000, roughly the exact same that oil prices began to rise…and they have been steadily rising ever since! Putin’s strong-arm tactics to clamp down on crime and chaos in the markets, coupled with his strong sense of nationalism, have given the Russian’s a source of pride that they haven’t known since the Sputnik satellite launch. And since Russia controls shit-tons of oil and natural gas, they have been getting exceptionally rich in the last seven years too. Sum up these factors and you get this: Russia is back, bee-yatch!

Massive sales of oil and natural gas have allowed the Ruskies to pay off their national debt. Like all of it. They don’t owe anybody a damn dime. Putin has also been very savvy about socking away a lot of that oil wealth for a rainy day. And he has been storing it legally in banks for future use of the state, as opposed to storing it in his private bank account, which of course is the type of corruption that happens all the time in lesser developed places with less of a sense of national pride. I’m telling you, this national pride shit has a lot to do with the current Russian success story…and Putin’s whack-crazy approval ratings too, which hover in the 80 to 90% range. Damn! G.W. would give his left nut for an 80% approval rating! But I digress…

Back to the stories above: The US and Team West have been assuming since 1991 that Russia would eventually join their team. I mean, their teams have so much in common already in terms of culture, religion, international business, technology and history. And Team West has been actively courting the Russians to side up with the West in terms of the war on terrorism, UN security council resolutions, perhaps even EU membership…and I even remember a time when NATO membership for Russia was a serious talking point.

But a funny thing happened on Russia’s way to joining Team West: they got their Russian groove back. They got an economy back. They got a nationalistic pride back. And most importantly, they have their sense of being a world power back. Oops. Looks like Russia is forming their own team again, as opposed to joining Team West. And that is exactly what I’m writing about today. Russia has turned east to embrace China. And embrace its former Central Asian possession of the –stan countries, and yes, even embrace Iran. The East is (at least for the time being) Russia’s focus for the future.

As the US and Western Europe continue to attempt to sweet talk the Russians, they are doing so with increasingly less and less bait to attract their former Cold War adversaries. And Russia is increasingly holding all the aces in this poker match. And Russia knows it. Thus, they are playing their hands on foreign policy from a position of power. The Ruskies are now in a position to play off all the other powers at their own whim, seeking out the most advantageous situations for themselves, with extremely limited repercussions from the US, Team West, or really anybody else. Meaning, they simply cannot lose anymore. What do I mean they can’t lose?

Well, let’s summarize on just a few of the points mentioned in the stories above:

Economically, if we go no further than to consider the role of oil and natural gas, then Russia is in the catbird’s seat for at least another decade…or ten. Russia supplies at least 1/3 of Europe’s energy needs. That’s Western and Eastern Europe. And it’s not just about the money being made either: tremendous political power has now been bestowed on Russia since those European powers get so much of their energy from the Bear. Translation: if you piss off Russia, you may get your heating oil turned off…in January. Think I’m making this shit up? Ask Belarus and Poland how fictional that story is. Then ask them how cold it gets in January.

But wait! Its not just Europe. China is energy hungry too, and the Russians are now establishing all kinds of relationships to transport more oil and natural gas then ever to their new Chinese friends. As China continues to explode economically, Russia will continue to get rich exponentially since they will be supplying the energy for this growth. Whoops! I almost forgot Japan! Japan wants as much Russian oil as it can get too, so there will never be any shortage of demand for Ruskies petroleum products in the East. Which means of course that Russia can play both sides of the continent against each other to jack up demand…and prices!

For now, the Chinese are winning this petroleum pissing match, as the Russians continue to forge new ties, build new pipelines, and sign new contracts with their eastern friends…but openly dissed the meeting with EU countries last week as ‘a waste of time.’

Strategically, Russia has also been busy strengthening its hand in the SCO. Big time. Don’t know your SCO? Better dig this then: You Gotsta’ Know the SCO!!! Within the SCO framework, China and Russia have basically been conducting an orgy of trade agreements, energy security agreements, economic and infrastructure projects and even military exercise co-ordination. They haven’t been doing any of that shit with Team West! And here’s why: as a member of the SCO, Russia is a leader. As a member of the EU or NATO, Russia is a follower. Got it? The Russians do, and they dig it.

Finally, politically the Russians and Chinese are in bed together like never before…mostly in the sense that they are now openly countering US foreign policies on the world stage. Putin’s position of power affords him the ability to completely piss off the West…‘cause he can always just chill with the Chinese chaps. This has come into play in current events in several ways:

1) Putin has been openly critical of the US plan to put a ‘missile shield’ in Eastern Europe. So critical in fact, that he is saying that this shield will cause another Cold War, and the Russians have pulled out of treaties which have limited the production of certain types of missiles. Putin has also overseen the resumption of old Cold War bomber patrols across Russian territory, as well as the creation and testing of a ‘super-bomb.’ He is causing such a ruckus over the planned missile defense systems, that he now almost literally has the US kissing his ass and begging him to allow the plan to go through. It is interesting to note that the two sites which will house this defense system are Poland and the Czech Republic: two countries which are heavily reliant on Russian fuel to get thru the long winter. Starting to get the picture here of how this shit is working?

2) Iran. Iran’s continued foray into developing a nuclear industry (and perhaps a nuclear bomb) has pitted the Russian-Chinese axis against Team West. Putin has cozied up to Iran if for no other reason than to check-and checkmate with the US on foreign policy issues. Nobody really thinks that Putin has a lovefest with Iran, but he is in a position to counter any moves towards US sanctions or even an US invasion of Iran should it come down to that. Again, start to put the pieces of the puzzle together: if the US continues to make moves towards the missile defense shield…then Russia will strengthen its support for an Iranian nuke industry. If the US/Team West pisses off Russia about anything, then Russia will use its veto power on the UN Permanent Security Council to stop any international action dead in its tracks. Both Russia and China are now dropping hints that they are prepared to do just that.

3) The SCO is continuing to grow in functionality and membership. It is starting to look a lot like a combo NATO/EU of the east…with Russia as a real leader. And watch out for this big bombshell to be dropped in the near future: Russia is going to lead the formation of a natural gas cartel of Asia, with themselves in the center. Quote from SCO meeting on Friday: “Russia has also proposed the establishment of an “energy club” to complement the SCO regional security bloc, said Ivan Materov, Russian deputy minister of industry and energy.” The Plaid Avenger sez: Watch out OPEC, here comes ‘SCO’-PEC! Man! That will be some serious shit hitting the fan!

But enough speculation and assessment for now. Just know this: Russia is turning east to be a leader, and away from the west where it would be conscripted to be a follower. It’s not really surprising I suppose. I think its more the speed at which Russia has gone from being a zero to be a hero…or at least to being a major force in the world again. But all this talk of Russia has built my thirst and whetted my appetite. I think its time for a few dozen Oysters shooters, Moscow-style. What? Never had it? Dig:

Moscow Oyster Shooters, Plaid Avenger recipe:

• 3 dozen Pacific Oysters on the half-shell
• Add a small dollop of horseradish sauce in middle of oyster
• A teaspoon of Beluga caviar on top of dollop
• Pour over one shot of Stolichnaya Red Russian vodka
• Squeeze lemon wedge over entire batch
• Go to work

Oh hell yeah!

Dude! Did someone forget to pay the cable bill at the White House? Because I don’t think that they are getting CNN anymore, much less any other news network that deals with issues outside the US!

Salutations my sexy and sultry friends! The Plaid Avenger is back is rare form, to the great consternation of the Cheney administration in the US. While I typically try not to dabble in doltish domestic drivel, I’ve heard enough irreverent and irrational interpretations of international intrigue from this administration to last an infinity. Ha! That’s a lot of ‘I’s my friends! And since the US is definitely the 800 pound gorilla of international politics, it is worthy enough to talk about the current comments of the Cheney corporation…and more importantly why their statements are strange…and sketch. Check it:

Bush warns world of WWIII over Iran

George Bush warns Putin over ‘World War III’

Cheney - No nuclear arms for Iran

Cheney, Like President, Has a Warning for Iran

Cheney raises anti-Iran rhetoric

So what am I ranting about here? Let’s get the sentiment of this blog straight from the start: the Avenger is only concerned with the ridiculous rhetoric coming from the Bush Administration about their ‘world support’ against the Iranian regime. I’m not going to get into the debate about whether or not the Iranians are trying to build a nuclear bomb (they are not…yet). I’m not getting into the particulars about whether or not they support terrorism in the Middle East (they do). I’m not even going to get into whether or not Iran has evil intentions or should be sanctioned or even should be bombed. What I do want to chat about is who exactly would be supporting any of these movements against Iran—which is the focus of this forum….

Now, apparently the US administration is employing some good old boy, old-school, pre-WWII tactics of full-on propaganda in order to scare the living shit out of folks enough to get them riled up to demand that action be taken against the Iranians. I mean, if the whole world is against the Iranians, shouldn’t we do something about it? Um….that’s just the problem…the whole world is definitely not on board with US foreign policy on this matter, and to announce that the US is going to lead a willing world to destroy Iran is not just misleading…its simply wrong. But I want you folks to be smarter than the average bear…and in this case, ‘bear’ is an appropriate animal description, as the Russian Bear has everything to do with this equation.

But I am getting ahead of myself as usual. Let’s get to the facts…I don’t think I need to elaborate much on the Iranian/US situation happening on the planet right now. In a nutshell: Iran is developing a nuclear power industry; no one is disputing that fact. The US and some Western European states are utterly convinced that Iran is developing this knowledge in order to ultimately build nuclear weapons. Iran claims that it only wants the nuclear power, and has a right to do this based on the NPT treaty (which is true).

The US in particular refutes this claim, and there are widespread accusations in the US which allude to ‘flagrant’ misdeeds of Iran developing a secret nuke bomb—although to my knowledge, no proof of Iranian wrong-doing has ever been presented to the IAEA. In other words, the US and its allies insist that everybody in the world knows Iran is doing all this bad stuff…even though no one has actually got any proof of any of this bad stuff. You starting to get the picture here?

Well the picture got fuzzier after Vlad ‘the Man’ Putin visited Iran last week and declared that Russia does not believe threat Iran is doing anything illegal. As you know from a previous blog (World Pissing Match: Russia Pisses Off US;), Russia also went as far as to set up a ‘no-attack-Iran’ zone with all the countries which surround the Caspian Sea. ‘The Bear’ is making no bones about its position with Iran—a position which runs exactly opposite to the US one.

And that brings us back to point: Last Friday US President Bush made a speech in which he said that Iran’s obtaining of a nuclear weapon would start ‘World War Three.” Wow! That is some serious shit to be spouting! Not to be outdone, US Vice-President Dick Cheney went on the attack just yesterday by saying that under no circumstances would the US and the world at large allow Iran to get a nuclear bomb…which in this case also means developing nuclear power. He hinted that ‘the world’ would not allow this, and that there would be serious repercussions on Iran if they continued down this path.

Just a couple of quotes:

President Bush: “My intent is to continue(?) to rally the world, to send a focused signal to the Iranian government that we will continue to work to isolate you…” (my italics…and ‘continue to rally the world’? ‘Continue’? When did it start?)

Vice President Cheney: “The Iranian regime needs to know that if it stays on its present course, the international community is prepared to impose serious consequences,” Mr. Cheney said, without specifying what those might be. “The United States joins other nations in sending a clear message: We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.” (my italics)

The international community is prepared to impose serious consequences? The US is rallying the world? Hmmmm….. I do have to wonder…..Where are these guys getting their information from? I mean, they are the damn White House for pete’s sake! They have the CIA, the FBI, the NSA, foreign ambassadors, think tanks, chiefs of staff and a shitload of other folks whose jobs are to keep the Executive Branch well informed. So how are these guys making such clueless comments? I’m just a dude reading the newspapers and can point out a few holes in their thinking about international support against Iran. Here we go:

1) Russia: Hey guys! Check the papers from last week! Russia just announced that they don’t think Iran is doing anything illegal. AND they said that they would not be supporting any more tougher UN-imposed sanctions on Iran. How can Russian make such a bold assertion? Duh? Russia has a permanent seat on the UN Permanent Security Council. As such, it has veto power over any UN sanctions against Iran.

Hello? McFly? McCheney? Do you know how the UN works? Check out a previous blog if you are still confused (Permanent Possessors of Power: the Fabulous 5!) The deal: Russia will stop cold any UN move against Iran. So you can count Russia out of your ‘international community’ plans…and while we are it at…

2) China: China almost always stays out of internal affairs of other countries unless those countries happen to be directly threatening China itself. And that is not the case here either. Remember, China is the #1 fan of sovereignty on the planet, and as such will say that Iran has a right as a sovereign state to develop nuclear energy until it is proven that they are doing something else. On top of that, China is always wimpy to stand alone at the UN…but since Russia has already ponied up and said it will block any UN measures against Iran, China will now do it too. So count China out of the ‘world standing against Iran’….but wait! There’s more!

3) Latin America: Venezuela? Forget about it! Hugo Chavez loves Iran, as does Bolivia’s leader. And since most of Latin America now swings to the left side of the socialist spectrum (and because US-Latin American relations have sucked for a decade), the US should not be looking south of its borders for too much support of an Iranian intervention. In fact, almost all countries south of Mexico will probably openly oppose any such move…since most already did oppose the US invasion of Iraq. Oh! And speaking of Iraq…

4) Iraq: That place is still in bad shape with sectarian violence between Sunni and Shiite…does anybody in Iraq really want an invasion of Shia Iran next door? Talk about dumping gas on the fire! Holy shit! That whole place will explode! Don’t look for Iran’s immediate neighbors to support an invasion or bombing…what a minute…did you say neighbors?

5) Iran’s ‘hood: As suggested above, Iraq cannot be very supportive of a new war next door. But as also referenced earlier, what I refer to as ‘The Caspian Coalition’ has already declared it opposition to any move against Iran. See map for countries who have already agreed to NOT allow any attack on Iran from their territories. And you can extend a bit beyond the Caspian as well…Central Asian countries have been much more keen to party with Russia lately, and have also been having talks with Iran about letting them into their SCO club. (You Gotsta’ Know the SCO!!! ) So count those –stan countries out as well, ‘cause they will side up with the Ruskies on this matter.

Shit. Who does that leave for the “international stand against Iran”? Let’s end the blog on who the US can count on to get their panties in a bunch over Iran: for sure the US can count on their old lapdog the UK for support. Even though Gordon Brown isn’t quite the parlor pooch that Tony Blair was, he will still give his go ahead for actions against Iran.

And France? Hell, France is the new UK when it comes to supporting US foreign policy! Nick Sarkozy is all about kicking some Iranian ass…or at least supporting the US to do it! Germany may be in on this action as well, as they are getting very leery of Iranian power…combined with the quaint fact that they may be within reach of an Iranian missile. Most other European nations, Japan, and even Australia would be on board right this second. But watch out! Australia is holding an election soon, and if John Howard loses, then you can count the Australians out too! Hell, the Labour Party is threatening to pull Aussie troops out of Iraq if they win–no way they are going to support a war with Iran. That is, if they win…which seems probable right now.

Other than that, the US will have a handful of Arab states which may actually support a move against Iran too. Look for Saudi Arabia and Egypt to possibly side up with the US, although in doing so may cause catastrophic public dissent in their countries. Turkey will also probably side up with the US, although if that Armenian genocide bill goes through the US Congress, its anybody’s bet how the Turks will roll.

Needless to say, this idea of an international community rallying around the US to deny Iran nuclear power/nuclear weaponry is a bit of fancy. And the Avenger can’t stand such fluff. Know your world my friends. Know how it works. And know when politicians are blowing smoke up your ass.

Speaking of smoke…time to head to the local hookah bar for some much needed respite from these radical ramblings…

Hello hello hello again plaid party people! Too many good stories to choose from today…so let’s talk about them all! In a first for the Avenger, we will tie together a trifecta of titillating tidbits with the tantalizing tie between then being irritation. Pissed to be exact! It seems today is the day that most major powers on the planet decided to simultaneously piss in each other’s corn flakes! How hilarious! All in a day’s work I suppose, so let’s get to this summary…shall we?

Russia, Iran harden against West

Bush warns Putin over ‘World War Three’

For starters, one of the planet’s bad asses of all time Vlad ‘the man’ Putin of Russia decided to pay a visit to his homies down in Iran. Ha! Russia has homies? Not likely! Nonetheless, Putin was visiting with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad…and he even met with the grand poo-bah of Shia Iran: Ayatollah Khamenei! Wouldn’t you have loved to be a fly on the wall during that fascinating conversation? Yeah, me neither. Let’s recreate the dialogue:

Putin: Great to meet you, Supreme Leader of Iran…got any vodka to drink?
Ayatollah: Allah be praised, you Russian infidel. We don’t drink alcohol in my country.
Putin: Oh. Well, that’s okay. In my country most Muslims and foreigners in general are discriminated against. Hell, we’ve been blowing up Chechen Muslims for years.
Ayatollah: Hmmm… I see. Well, we don’t really have anything in common, do we?
Putin: Um…nope. Not really. Oh wait! Would you like me to show you some Judo?
Ayatollah: No. That would be gay. And we don’t have any gay people in my country either.
Putin:Oh. Um. Then I guess we don’t have much to talk about…
—Long, uncomfortable silence—
Ayatollah: Well, there is always pissing off the Americans….
Putin: Oh yeah! We are good at that! Let’s work together on that point …what did you have in mind?

Which brings us back to the topic at hand. Let’s get to the pissed part…After talking with President Ahmadinejad, Putin declared that Russia does not support the American assertion that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons. And in fact Russia believes that Iran only wants nuclear technology to produce energy, and Russia is going to help them do it. In addition, Russia has hinted that they are not going to allow any more stricter UN sanctions on Iran (remember, Russia is a veto-wielding member of the UN Security Council—they can stop any further sanctions on the spot), and have outright suggested that the US needs to stop its ‘saber-rattling’ tactics by threatening war. Damn! This is seriously pissing off the US!

On top of that, Russia and Iran just wrapped up a summit of ‘Caspian Sea nations’ in which they all signed a declaration which prohibits any other country on the planet from using their states for attacks on one another “under any circumstances”. Caspian summit a triumph for Iran You get that? Read between the lines: In other words, all those countries agree that they will not help the US, the EU, or even the UN launch an attack on Iran. These countries include Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan (see map). Damn! They are outright telling the US and the world to piss off when it comes to any war on Iran! More rage for the US!

So President Bush is so pissed that he is suggesting that this may be a lead up to WW3! Ha! Dude! Chill out! There are a couple of things that someone should suggest to the Americans to calm them down:

1)Under the NPT (the UN Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty), developing nuclear technology for power creation is totally acceptable. Iran is a signatory to this treaty, so as long as they are playing by the rules, so should you. I know you don’t like it, but you are going to have to live with it

2)Let’s go ahead and run with the US assumption that Iran really only wants nuke technology to make a bomb. Let’s assume they make a bomb. Hell, let’s even assume they launch that bomb at Israel, since the Americans are fully convinced that this will happen. Why would the Iranians do this, since it totally assures that their country will become a smoldering, radioactive wasteland after the US and France and the UK retaliate with overwhelming force? Doesn’t make much sense. Does it?

To be fair to the US, that is an oversimplified analysis, and there other issues to be considered…namely the fear that an Iranian nuke bomb would spark a Middle Eastern arms race. Fair enough. That is a valid point. If Iran gets a nuke, then Saudi Arabia is going to want a nuke, and Syria will then want a nuke, etc. So if that is what you US guys truly believe, then why don’t you actually come out and say it? Enough with the ‘Iran is going to kill us all’ bullshit.

Apparently the US is even more pissed because they can’t do much about these Russia-Iranian developments right now. So the US decided to piss off someone else instead….

U.S. honor for Dalai Lama angers China

Bush dismisses Chinese criticism over Dalai Lama

In honoring the Dalai Lama, the US is seriously pissing off China. Don’t know why that is? Check out an earlier Plaid Avenger insight into China’s fear of the Lama at Dalai Lama at Oktoberfest? Let’s Get Enlit! Now China is pissed at the US because anytime anybody even so much as meets with the Lama (much less give him a damn medal!), the Chinese interpret that as giving the Dalai too much ‘street cred’…and China’s ultimate fear is that if everyone in the world thinks the Dalai Lama is legit, then he will have the power to demand an independent Tibet. All I can say to the Chinese is: bullshit! That is never going to happen dudes, so lighten up on the monk! But China remains pissed for today either way….but they are not alone…

Turkey is also pissed at the US because of that proposed ‘recognition of the Armenian Genocide’ bill that made its way through a House committee last week. See Turkey is Steamed and Ready; but this ain’t no Thanksgiving for US I reported on that shit a few days back from the Turk-Iraq border, and the shit is heating up even more! While I was there, about 50,000-60,000 Turkish troops with a butt load of tanks and guns were amassing. They are about ready to get the party started. What party? The invasion of Iraq to track down some Kurdish terrorists.

Turks’ vote backs right to use force inside Iraq

Turkey votes to send troops into northen Iraq

And Turkey is still so pissed about that US committee vote, that they Turkish parliament went ahead and voted 507 to 19 to allow the armed forces to launch a cross-border assault against Kurdish insurgents based in northern Iraq. The 19 that voted ‘no’ were probably taken out back for a ass-whoopin’ shortly after the proceedings. Ordinarily, the US and Turkey are such strong allies that the US probably would have been able to talk them out of any aggressive actions in Iraq. But the Turks are simply pissed! Too pissed to listen to the Americans now…

And it goes without saying that the Iraqis are pissed about these Turkish developments…

Angry Iraqi Kurds say Turkish move would destabilise region

Iraq Kurds warn Turkey against ‘illegal’ incursion vote

Kurds ‘will fight Turkish raids’

Although Iraq is pretty much a basket case, and barely a functioning government, they have voiced their serious pissed-off-ness about the idea that Turkey may invade their ‘sovereign’ state. Sovereign? Ha! How hilarious is that? Isn’t there like troops from 20 different countries in Iraq? And the whole place is on the brink of civil war…if not fully already in one?

Despite the current Iraqi predicament, the idea of yet another country sending in troops is seriously pissing them off…particularly since the northern part of Iraq (where the Turks plan to invade to route out the PKK terrorists) is one of the only stable parts of the country right now! And northern Iraq is composed mostly of ethnic Kurds, and the Turks are coming in to hunt down a group of radical Kurds. If the Turks do come in, and accidentally kill a bunch of innocent Kurds while trying to kill the ‘bad’ PKK Kurds….OMG there will be hell to pay! That would spark a shit storm of open warfare in the region! The place may quickly get as nasty as the Bagdad region!

And the prospect of that seriously pisses off the US! The US has its hands full already trying to calm down the rest of the Iraq, where most of the conflict centers on sectarian strife between the Sunni and Shia Muslims…fueled by local Sunni extremist, outside terrorist forces like Al-Qaeda, and even next-door-neighbor Iran which funnels in ammo and aid to the Shias. Damn! The US would be pissed about the Turks getting the northern region as hot as the south already is!

Simply pissed!

And now we have come full circle in our pissing match for the day. Those world leaders certainly have been busy boys today, infuriating each other like its going out of style!

And they are pissed!

From Burma to Bavaria! “O’zapft is!” my plaid friends: It is tapped! Greetings from an undisclosed beer tent deep in the heart of Munich, Germany where the 174^th Oktoberfest has kicked off and is in full swing. Ahhhh….I am in heaven, in my prime, and in-ebriated! What a perfect trifecta to be in! And of course the fräulein are digging my plaid lederhosen; but then again, who doesn’t? But I’m not just here to ride this two-week Bavarian celebration bandwagon; I came back to Deutschland from hanging with my Burmese Buddhist buddies to catch up with the grand pooh-bah of all the Buddhist monks, the main man, the Lama of all lamas: the Dalai himself. Dig this:

Oktoberfest kicks off in Munich

Analysis: German-Chinese diplomatic crisis

Merkel Meets Dalai Lama Despite Chinese Criticism

China objects to Harper meeting with Dalai Lama

Dalai Lama renews calls for Tibetan autonomy

Dalai Lama meets with Austrian chancellor, irking China

The Dalai Lama is one dude who stays always on the move…which is made easier by the fact he has no place to call home! Just in the last couple of weeks, the Dalai Lama has visited the President of Austria, the Prime Minister of Canada, and the Chancellor of Germany, Miss Merkel-icious herself, Angela Merkel! And all these visits really piss off the Chinese government. Now, the Chinese may just have gotten hot and bothered when the Lama went to Austria and Canada, but they were full-fledged infuriated by the fact that Germany allowed a meeting with Merkel and the monk. So pissed that now China is saying that diplomatic ties have been permanently damaged! What? Damaged ties because a dude in a maroon toga talked to Angela for an hour? What gives?

I’m glad you asked my plaid friends, because that is the reason for today’s blog….well, that and about 13 quarts of Bavaria’s finest. But I digress as usual. Who the hell is this Lama guy, and why do his visits with world leaders leave the Chinese government seeing red?

This particular Lama (his given name is Tenzin Gyatso) is the 14^th of his kind: the successive Dalai Lamas form a lineage of allegedly reborn magistrates which traces back to 1391. The Dalai Lama position is to be the spiritual leader of a main branch of Buddhism referred to as Northern Buddhism, or Tibetan Buddhism. (This division is more geographic than dogmatic: it does not necessarily correspond to philosophical or doctrinal divisions among Buddhist worldwide, since they all share a common belief system and share most practices.) However, it is not his religious position that irks the Chinese: the Dalai Lamas have also been historically the ‘head of state’ of a geographic entity we refer to as Tibet.

Now, there is no way to keep this brief without pissing lots of folks off….but I’m going to do it anyway. The area we refer to as Tibet has been various things at various times in the last thousand years: it was an independent kingdom, a vassal state, an autonomous region, a semi-autonomous region, a colonial holding, and a fully absorbed territory into a state we call China. For purposes of understanding today’s world, we need only concern ourselves with that last description…as part of Chinese territory.

During the heyday of the Manchu Empire in China, well over 300 years ago, Tibet increasingly came under the influence of the Chinese. But Chinese power was destroyed by internal factors and civil war combined with Western and Japanese imperialism in the 1800’s. AS China was falling apart, Tibet first became a pawn between Western powers (mostly Russian and British), and later began asserting its outright independence—and to keep the record straight for you, their ‘independence’ was proclaimed while China was self-destructing and the ‘West’ was preoccupied with World War 1. Basically, Tibet was largely just left to its own devices while all the other world powers were busy.

Long story short, once China got their act together (after WWII and their Civil War), they immediately starting re-establishing their presence in Tibet…and in fact had never renounced their claim of sovereignty on the area. The Dalai Lamas continued to partially rule in Tibet with, to some extent, autonomous power given by contemporary Chinese governments, until the People’s Republic of China invaded the region in 1949 and then took full control in 1959. The Dalai Lama then hauled ass to India and has since ceded temporal power to an elected government-in-exile. Which brings us up to date enough to understand today’s world…

The current 14th Dalai Lama seeks greater autonomy for Tibet. Not outright independence, but greater self-rule autonomy. The Chinese have interpreted this as a threat to their ‘sovereignty’—and let’s just call a spade a spade here….they hate the guy! They hate that he is so popular. They hate that he is well respected, and even venerated, as a world figure. They probably even hate his sweet-ass flowing robes. And they really, really, really, really, really, really hate it when any world leaders meet with the Dalai Lama because the Chinese think that the more recognition the guy gets, the more the world will demand that China give back Tibet to him. Its a similar issue to their Taiwan situation–the Chinese want NO ONE to officially recognize the guy for fear that Tibet will someday claim independence.

What is the Dalai Lama really up to? Well, the dude now tours the world—and he is the first Dalai Lama to go abroad—spreading the Buddhist message and preserving Tibetan culture. He does officially lead the ‘government in exile’ from Dharamsala, India. He is a fantastic speaker, promotes world peace, wildlife conservation, and a host of other awesome shit that has won him great respect, acclaim, and even a Nobel Peace Prize. Let’s face it: the dude is the Buddhist shizzle….how about we call him the Budd-izzel?

Anyway, as referenced in the stories above, the Budd-izzel Dalai Lama has been on a world tour this month, having just met for the first time ever with the Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel. Budd-izzel and Merkelicious…how delicious! And of course the Chinese are shitting themselves with rage. So pissed that they are claiming that it has destroyed Chinese-German relations.

The Plaid Avenger’s take on the Chinese position? How about this: move the fuck on China! This is a moot issue, and everyone in the world knows it except you guys! No one is recognizing Tibetan sovereignty; no one is encouraging the Lama to declare a free Tibet; and no one is proposing any Tibetan independence resolutions at the UN! Just because a shitload of Americans have ‘Free Tibet!’ bumper stickers on their SUVs doesn’t make it so! Relax!

In fact, the Chinese-Tibet situation is extremely similar to another outdated, goofball relationship in the world…and that would be the one between the US and Cuba. Come on China! You guys mock the US for its blockheaded policies toward the tiny island state. Can’t you see that your issues with the Lama are just as foolish? Pony up and make peace with the guy, and give Tibet the limited democratic autonomy they are asking for.

But that’s enough Plaid rhetoric for now…I just mostly wanted you guys to know why the Chinese are currently so pissed at Germany, and why they will continue to get pissed at other countries in the future. Its because they are being goobers, and they hate how cool everyone thinks the Budd-izzel is. Jealousy is a bitch my Chinese brothers. Better to come here to Oktoberfest and chill down on some brewskies….

Which reminds me…Oh Fräulein! Another round at my table please! And wiener schnitzels! Bring me a shitload of wiener schnitzel! Stat!

Hello again World Watchers! Had to toddle over to Taiwan to check out their totally titillating and turbulent fifteenth attempt to join the UN: an attempt causing Chinese consternation and American aggravation. The President of Taiwan is Chen Shui-Bian…I call him ‘Cheesy Chen’…and he is a master at pissing off world leaders. What? How can a single little island nation simultaneously snub two of the biggest powers on the planet? I’m glad you asked friends, because this is a tricky tale that has potentially explosive repercussions on the global stage. How explosive? Well, just so you know, this little Cheesy Chen possesses the power to initiate a world war. Sound fanciful? Well, dig this first, and then I’ll explain:

Taiwan in fresh UN membership bid

U.S. steps up pressure on Taiwan to drop U.N. referendum

US should consider Taiwan’s need

Taiwan’s Chen seen likely to defy U.S. pressure

Taiwan Leader Riles China, U.S.

Taiwan loses Costa Rica’s support

President Chen Shui-bian is the current elected leader of Taiwan. He is also from the Taiwanese  political party that is very, very pro-independence for Taiwan. Just so you know, Chen and his party barely squeaked through the last election with the win–meaning that they don’t have overwhelming support in the country.   Most folks in Taiwan are not pro-independence, and in fact the majority just want to maintain the current nebulous status quo.  The masses are not fighting mad for Taiwanese independence. But Chen and his cheesy chinesey crew are…

But wait…Taiwanese independence? Are they not already? Isn’t Taiwan already in the UN? What is the deal? Many of you probably erroneously assume that Taiwan is already a sovereign state with a seat at the UN…and of course many of you would be wrong. Taiwan is not a sovereign state. And that is what the stories above are about; President Cheesy Chen is petitioning the UN for the fifteenth time to allow them into the country club. But it is not going to happen. Not now. Not ever. Never. And everybody knows it. So why the hell is Chen still trying? And why does the attempt piss everybody off? 

For most of its history, Taiwan was an island territory off the coast of China that was of no great significance. (Sorry my Taiwanese friends! You know its true!) However, Taiwan immediately became a Cold War hotspot when the Chinese Nationalists (Kuomintang), after losing the Chinese Civil War, retreated to Taiwan and set up a government called the Republic of China (ROC). Meanwhile, Chairman Mao and the Communists controlled mainland China and called themselves the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Acronym reference guide:

• ROC: pro-democracy, pro-capitalist, leaders of Taiwan
• PRC: communist (well, they used to be), leaders of China…yeah, the real China

The leaders of both ‘countries’ have long subscribed to the one-China policy (that there is only one China and Taiwan is part of China), each insisting on their own government’s legitimacy. Of course, all this went down during the Cold War, when capitalists and communists weren’t allowed to hang out. So, depending on where you hailed from, you could recognize either the PRC or the ROC as the legitimate Chinese government. Capitalist democracies originally recognized the ROC as the legitimate government of China and communist countries recognized the PRC as the legitimate government of China. So back in the 1950s and 60s, the US, most European countries and even the UN recognized the ROC (Taiwan) as the legit leaders to have diplomatic ties with. Hell, Taiwan held the ‘China’ seat at the UN!

In particular, during the Cold War, the US wanted to help promote the Taiwanese government because they were on our team…you know, Team Democracy/Capitalism! The US made economic and military and strategic ties which helped protect Taiwan from Chinese aggression and also helped make them a fully modern, rich nation. As such, America’s policy has been, “If China invades Taiwan, we will defend Taiwan, by force if necessary.” And many other countries around the planet supported this endeavor by recognizing the legitimacy of the ROC. But times changed…

Since around 1970, support for ROC as the legit leaders has hugely diminished. Why? Well, because even the US and others had to finally recognize that the communist Chinese were here to stay. They couldn’t go on pretending that the 3^rd largest country with the largest population in the world simply didn’t exist. In other words, everyone had to stop being dumb. So in 1971 the UN to shifted its ‘China’ seat from Taiwan to China proper. In 1972 the US initiated their ‘One China Policy’ which states that “the United States acknowledges that Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States does not challenge that position.” In 1979 the US switched their diplomatic recognition to China proper, but still maintained their strategic ‘protection’ alliance with Taiwan. This strategic alliance is underlined by the fact that the US sells Taiwan shit-tons of military hardware; a situation that continues to the present.

Since the 1980’s, as China’s economic clout has grown bigger and bigger, country after country around the globe has switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. The most recent was Costa Rica a few months ago. Taiwan now only has 24 countries which still recognize it as legit, as opposed to China which has 170. It should be noted that those 24 include powerhouses like El Salvador, Kiribati, and Swaziland. Getting the picture here? The number continues to dwindle because China refuses to do business with any state that recognizes Taiwan…and no country can afford to not do business with China anymore.

So what’s all this got to do with current events? Just this: in a strange twist of history, this crazy Cheesy Chen dude is in a position to start a major regional war by his whack-ass UN-seeking antics. How?

A scenario not unlike pre–WWI Europe has evolved:

1. The US has been committed to helping defend Taiwan if China attacks. Some administrations—like the current Bush administration—have sometimes outright declared this to be a fact. In other words, the US will counter the attack if the Chinese invade. Maybe.
2. China passed a law in 2005 that legally binds them to attack Taiwan should Taiwan ever declare independence. They claim there is no decision to make, no choice to contemplate. They will attack.
3. The current president of Taiwan is both a lame-duck president and avowedly pro-independence for Taiwan. He’s got nothing to lose. He might want to play high-stakes poker, where the ante for the game includes his whole damn country. The Plaid Avenger also thinks the guy has a serious screw loose too; Chen was shot a few years ago in what appears to be a ‘staged assassination’ just two days before the presidential election in order to gain a sympathy vote. You let someone shoot you? Dude….you are whack.

See where this could go . . . and fast? One yahoo in office in Taiwan now has the ability to launch two of the biggest world powers against each other. One false move in the middle, and everybody is pulled into the game.

So these completely bullshit attempts at UN recognition are just another big stunt by Cheesy Chen to rile up the world. Of course you now understand why his moves piss off the Chinese, but have you figured out why Chen bugs the US too?

Answer: if you haven’t noticed, the US military is kind of busy right now. Afghanistan, Iraq, possibly Iran, the War on Terrorism, the War on Drugs, and of course all those military air shows are keeping the US armed forces busier than ever. The US simply does not have enough ass right now to send over to defend Taiwan if a war were to break out.

And increasingly, many in the US aren’t sure they want to fight a war with the Chinese, even if they had nothing better to do. The US and Chinese economies are inextricably linked at this point, and no one would stand to gain from a war of any kind between these two heavyweights. And for what? An island that virtually everyone on the planet agrees is Chinese territory. Man, no one wants to get pulled into a pissing match over Taiwan. And that is why the US response to Chen’s words have been “Please sit down and have a tall glass of shut-the-hell-up’. Can you dig it?

Oh by the way, you may have wondered how the Plaid Avenger knows that the Taiwan resolution to the UN won’t pass? Because both China and the US, as members of the UN Permanent Security Council, have veto power over any resolution. And everyone knows that both of them would veto it. That resolution doesn’t have a snow cone’s chance in Sumatra to pass.

What’s that? You don’t know what the Permanent Security Council is? Well game on then! I’ll travel to UN headquarters in New York by tomorrow morning and tell you all about it. Until then…

Party in plaid!