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Some tasty Tibet tidbits:

Nationalism at core of China’s reaction on Tibet

Tibet tensions high as Olympic torch nears Beijing

China “strongly dissatisfied” with EU meeting on Tibet issue

From Burma to Bavaria! “O’zapft is!” my plaid friends: It is tapped! Greetings from an undisclosed beer tent deep in the heart of Munich, Germany where the 174^th Oktoberfest has kicked off and is in full swing. Ahhhh….I am in heaven, in my prime, and in-ebriated! What a perfect trifecta to be in! And of course the fräulein are digging my plaid lederhosen; but then again, who doesn’t? But I’m not just here to ride this two-week Bavarian celebration bandwagon; I came back to Deutschland from hanging with my Burmese Buddhist buddies to catch up with the grand pooh-bah of all the Buddhist monks, the main man, the Lama of all lamas: the Dalai himself. Dig this:

Oktoberfest kicks off in Munich

Analysis: German-Chinese diplomatic crisis

Merkel Meets Dalai Lama Despite Chinese Criticism

China objects to Harper meeting with Dalai Lama

Dalai Lama renews calls for Tibetan autonomy

Dalai Lama meets with Austrian chancellor, irking China

The Dalai Lama is one dude who stays always on the move…which is made easier by the fact he has no place to call home! Just in the last couple of weeks, the Dalai Lama has visited the President of Austria, the Prime Minister of Canada, and the Chancellor of Germany, Miss Merkel-icious herself, Angela Merkel! And all these visits really piss off the Chinese government. Now, the Chinese may just have gotten hot and bothered when the Lama went to Austria and Canada, but they were full-fledged infuriated by the fact that Germany allowed a meeting with Merkel and the monk. So pissed that now China is saying that diplomatic ties have been permanently damaged! What? Damaged ties because a dude in a maroon toga talked to Angela for an hour? What gives?

I’m glad you asked my plaid friends, because that is the reason for today’s blog….well, that and about 13 quarts of Bavaria’s finest. But I digress as usual. Who the hell is this Lama guy, and why do his visits with world leaders leave the Chinese government seeing red?

This particular Lama (his given name is Tenzin Gyatso) is the 14^th of his kind: the successive Dalai Lamas form a lineage of allegedly reborn magistrates which traces back to 1391. The Dalai Lama position is to be the spiritual leader of a main branch of Buddhism referred to as Northern Buddhism, or Tibetan Buddhism. (This division is more geographic than dogmatic: it does not necessarily correspond to philosophical or doctrinal divisions among Buddhist worldwide, since they all share a common belief system and share most practices.) However, it is not his religious position that irks the Chinese: the Dalai Lamas have also been historically the ‘head of state’ of a geographic entity we refer to as Tibet.

Now, there is no way to keep this brief without pissing lots of folks off….but I’m going to do it anyway. The area we refer to as Tibet has been various things at various times in the last thousand years: it was an independent kingdom, a vassal state, an autonomous region, a semi-autonomous region, a colonial holding, and a fully absorbed territory into a state we call China. For purposes of understanding today’s world, we need only concern ourselves with that last description…as part of Chinese territory.

During the heyday of the Manchu Empire in China, well over 300 years ago, Tibet increasingly came under the influence of the Chinese. But Chinese power was destroyed by internal factors and civil war combined with Western and Japanese imperialism in the 1800’s. AS China was falling apart, Tibet first became a pawn between Western powers (mostly Russian and British), and later began asserting its outright independence—and to keep the record straight for you, their ‘independence’ was proclaimed while China was self-destructing and the ‘West’ was preoccupied with World War 1. Basically, Tibet was largely just left to its own devices while all the other world powers were busy.

Long story short, once China got their act together (after WWII and their Civil War), they immediately starting re-establishing their presence in Tibet…and in fact had never renounced their claim of sovereignty on the area. The Dalai Lamas continued to partially rule in Tibet with, to some extent, autonomous power given by contemporary Chinese governments, until the People’s Republic of China invaded the region in 1949 and then took full control in 1959. The Dalai Lama then hauled ass to India and has since ceded temporal power to an elected government-in-exile. Which brings us up to date enough to understand today’s world…

The current 14th Dalai Lama seeks greater autonomy for Tibet. Not outright independence, but greater self-rule autonomy. The Chinese have interpreted this as a threat to their ‘sovereignty’—and let’s just call a spade a spade here….they hate the guy! They hate that he is so popular. They hate that he is well respected, and even venerated, as a world figure. They probably even hate his sweet-ass flowing robes. And they really, really, really, really, really, really hate it when any world leaders meet with the Dalai Lama because the Chinese think that the more recognition the guy gets, the more the world will demand that China give back Tibet to him. Its a similar issue to their Taiwan situation–the Chinese want NO ONE to officially recognize the guy for fear that Tibet will someday claim independence.

What is the Dalai Lama really up to? Well, the dude now tours the world—and he is the first Dalai Lama to go abroad—spreading the Buddhist message and preserving Tibetan culture. He does officially lead the ‘government in exile’ from Dharamsala, India. He is a fantastic speaker, promotes world peace, wildlife conservation, and a host of other awesome shit that has won him great respect, acclaim, and even a Nobel Peace Prize. Let’s face it: the dude is the Buddhist shizzle….how about we call him the Budd-izzel?

Anyway, as referenced in the stories above, the Budd-izzel Dalai Lama has been on a world tour this month, having just met for the first time ever with the Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel. Budd-izzel and Merkelicious…how delicious! And of course the Chinese are shitting themselves with rage. So pissed that they are claiming that it has destroyed Chinese-German relations.

The Plaid Avenger’s take on the Chinese position? How about this: move the fuck on China! This is a moot issue, and everyone in the world knows it except you guys! No one is recognizing Tibetan sovereignty; no one is encouraging the Lama to declare a free Tibet; and no one is proposing any Tibetan independence resolutions at the UN! Just because a shitload of Americans have ‘Free Tibet!’ bumper stickers on their SUVs doesn’t make it so! Relax!

In fact, the Chinese-Tibet situation is extremely similar to another outdated, goofball relationship in the world…and that would be the one between the US and Cuba. Come on China! You guys mock the US for its blockheaded policies toward the tiny island state. Can’t you see that your issues with the Lama are just as foolish? Pony up and make peace with the guy, and give Tibet the limited democratic autonomy they are asking for.

But that’s enough Plaid rhetoric for now…I just mostly wanted you guys to know why the Chinese are currently so pissed at Germany, and why they will continue to get pissed at other countries in the future. Its because they are being goobers, and they hate how cool everyone thinks the Budd-izzel is. Jealousy is a bitch my Chinese brothers. Better to come here to Oktoberfest and chill down on some brewskies….

Which reminds me…Oh Fräulein! Another round at my table please! And wiener schnitzels! Bring me a shitload of wiener schnitzel! Stat!

Greetings from Shanghai my Plaid Friends! Stopped in from Ankara so I could sniff around to see what shenanigans that savvy Shanghai Six are up to. What? You don’t know who the Shanghai Six are? Hell, I’ve been following these guys since they were a little bitty newborn Shanghai Five! Perhaps you know them by their newer, streamlined cool nickname, the SCO: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization? What? Still drawing a blank? Oh my friends, if you want to understand what’s going on in the world, you better know your SCO. Here, try these on for size:

Shanghai plan to fight extremism (old school story-check the date)

Shanghai grouping moves centre stage

SCO joint military exercises to be held in Russia in 2007

Don’t play this Great Game

Pakistan and the SCO

Iran urges Central Asian bloc to counter West

Who the hell are these guys? The current SCO/Shanghai Six are: China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The Asian giants on either side of a smattering of central Asian states—a big “Stan” sandwich! Ha! That is too damn good! I’ll have a side of fries with my Stan Sandwich! And speaking of sides, there are some of those too: Iran, Afghanistan, Mongolia, India and Pakistan have all requested and obtained observer status—which means they get to come to the meetings and hang out with the cool kids in the SCO clubhouse. I wonder if they have a secret hand shake? A shake with my fries and Stan-wich…oh, I’m too much today!

But I digress…

What the hell are they up to? This club was formed from the ashes of the demise of the USSR, and their original mission consisted of curbing “extremism, terrorism and separatism”—and let’s call a spade a spade here: their talking about Islamic extremism and Islamic terrorism, and separatism of any damn color or flavor. Some of these states are totalitarian in nature, others are one-party states, and some are fledgling democracies, so you can probably figure out very quickly how they deal with extremism, terrorism and separatism. ‘Iron fisted’ may be too strong a term, but let’s just say that the use of force to quell internal troubles is usually in the top three responses, if not the number one. In other words, China and Russia have no qualms about Tajikistan or Uzbekistan suppressing internal dissent with force—as long as its guised under the ‘stabilizing security’ heading. But that’s not what I really want to blather about. It’s this:

Security may have been the foundation block, but my oh my, they are a long way from home now! The SCO is one of the fastest growing clubs on the planet, mostly growing in terms of their mission statement. Now they conduct joint military exercises (hmmm…kind of like an Asian NATO), are signing all sorts of trade pacts (hmmm…kind of like an Asian EU), and there is been a fluttering of talk in the last six months about the SCO forming a giant natural gas cartel to stabilize market outputs and prices (hmmm…kind of like an Asian OPEC).

Wow! That is potent stuff! The fact that Vladimir Putin and several others completely dismissed the Asian OPEC idea publicly means to me that they are actually seriously considering it behind closed doors. These guys have terrible poker faces! If they really had no desire to build a natural gas coalition, they would have pretended to do it just to scare the shit out of everybody. Like oil is to the Middle East, natural gas is to Russia and Central Asia—in that they have the lion’s share of the world’s reserves, and could easily use it for price-fixing and political advantage. I look for that gas activity to start discreetly building next year—pun intended.

The ‘security/military’ maneuvers are very interesting as well, since they are the largest of their kind that the world has ever known. I’m not sure why no one has pointed that out. China has the biggest manned military on the planet. And Russia has the second biggest arsenal after the US, so you’re talking a seriously powerful group of folks from a strategic standpoint. And don’t start stock-piling for WW3; I am in no way shape of form suggesting that this group is planning anything offensively. Quite the contrary! I am suggesting that much like NATO, they are setting themselves up as an ‘un-attackable’ group. Many are already calling the SCO the ‘anti-Western’ option. Hmmm…Interesting shit for sure.

Their trade activity is getting hot too, as most countries want to get in on the trade block action. That’s why Iran, Pakistan, India and Mongolia wanted observer status, and I’m assuming they will all take full-member status if it’s ever offered to them. Everybody wants a piece of that SCO pie! Japan too has to pay attention to the action, since so much of their energy and other imports flows from the continent. Others will follow, but Russia and China have already vowed that unlike the EU, growth will be slow and controlled no matter what the future of the SCO holds. Those bastards are as patient as stones when it comes to foreign policy!

Lastly, I’ll point this out: the US is very unhappy about the SCO. Why? The SCO is definitely a threat to US power in the region. Def. Def. Def. The SCO has already pressured its member countries into forcing out some US military bases, and has openly stated that all US military installations should be gone in the near future. The SCO as the Asian NATO gives many other countries a viable option to team up with in the 21^st century…an option that is not US based, backed, or controlled. In fact, you should really know this: the US has asked for observer status to the SCO for years, and been refused!!! The SCO won’t let Uncle Sam even hang out in the clubhouse! Damn, Unc is getting pissed!

Russia and China’s ties with Iran through the SCO are also irksome for the US—it’s why Russia and China continue to vote down tough sanctions against Iran in the UN Permanent Security Council. Doh! Unc is getting more pissed!

And the gas? Don’t even get me started with the gas! The US and Europe will be shitting themselves if an OPEC-like gas coalition gets formed—pun intended again! As the biggest consumers of both oil and natural gas, the US and Europe are likely to be strung up by the energy balls in the coming century, because Asia’s got it all!

Damn! That SCO is one to watch my friends! But you won’t read about it in the US press, because they are totally clueless. Even Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert can’t help you like the Plaid Avenger can when it comes to international intrigue!

Party on! Shanghai-style!

-PA

Greetings again from Ankara my Plaid Friends! On my way back from Pakistan, I felt the overwhelming urge for some raki and Turkish Delight (the confection has taken such a bad rap since that little lying bastard Edmund wanted it in ‘The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe’)…aslan sütü and lokum. What a delightful pair to have while in Turkey! I do love the lion’s milk! Yeah baby! And Turkey is back on my radar screen again already due to some current events. Dig it:

Turkey stakes a Central Asian claim
US to push Sarkozy on Turkey’s EU processBetween Turkey and the EU, two plus two does not necessarily equal four
EU excited and worried by Sarkozy

Now I’ve chatted about the EU’s apprehension for Turkish ascension before on this blog, so I need not go back into those details (see EU turkeys talk turkey with Turkey ). But what I want to blather about today is what I’ve been telling my classes for years: Turkey is on a pivot point in modern history, and it looks as if a direction is soon to be chosen…if not downright forced on it! What pivot do I speak of? I’m referring to one of two directions Turkey will take to team up with in terms of economies, cultures, and politics. Those two team choices are the EU or Central Asia/Middle East. West or East. Could the choices be made more geographically distinct?

Turkey is a population powerhouse, Turkey is a growing economic power, and Turkey is increasingly a vital hub for the international flow of oil and natural gas. Turkey will be a leader in the 21^st century. The question is: of what? Will they be accepted into the EU and embrace the West even more, or will they be snubbed by the EU and turn around and become a power broker of a Central Asian/Middle Eastern coalition?

An Ottoman Empire Part Deux? Seems increasingly likely. Why?

As a very savvy commenter pointed out in a previous blog (see Fuck ‘Freedom Fries’: France is Freakin’ Back, Fools!), the election of anti-EU-enlargement Nicolas Sarkozy in France is very likely to put a huge damper on Turkish movement forward with EU entry. But that French fairy is only the latest nail in the coffin of Turkey’s EU talks: Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel is also vehemently opposed to the Turks, and the likely-next-Prime Minister of the UK, Gordon ‘Brown Sugar’ Brown, may be no proponent of Ankara either. And this ‘EU Dream Team’ of leaders are all youngish and recently-elected, so they are going to be around for while—which may mean Turkey won’t be!

As pointed out numerous times by the Avenger, the US is HUGELY in favor of Turkey staying staunchly in the western sphere of influence, and they are pushing hard for the EU to embrace their Turkish ally. Why would this be? Turkey is a NATO member, and one that has been of central and downright critical importance for the War on Terrorism: Afghan Chapter. The US also sees Turkey as the only successful Islamic democracy in the region to be emulated by its Middle Eastern neighbors, so Uncle Sam is keen on keeping Turkey in their corner of the ring. Simply put, without Turkish help, the war on terrorism in the Middle East and Central Asia becomes seriously hampered, if not outright hamstrung.

The other consideration here is that Turkey is increasingly becoming a pivotal power player in the energy game too. Long story short:

• The EU imports virtually all of its oil and natural gas needs…
• Central Asia has been increasing its output of energy radically in the last decade, with lots more to come…
• Russia has been building an energy empire on which Europe is currently addicted to…
• Energy from Central Asia is transported to the EU thru Russia and Turkey…
• Many in the EU are getting very worried about their over-reliance on Russian energy, which increases Russian geopolitical influence…
• Thus, including Turkey in the EU would shift the energy influence to a country on their own team…

And therefore shutting out Turkey will further shut out strategic ties to their energy sources. Don’t sound too smart to me, but whatever. Perhaps the EU will go totally green in the next ten years and never use oil again. Yeah…..right. As of this writing, it appears that the EU fears negative repercussions of Turkish entry in the EU much much much more than it fears losing an ally on the anti-terrorism campaign and an ally in their energy strategy. Tricky business. Tricky business indeed. I wonder if the ‘EU Dream Team’ will still be glad they excluded the Turks if Turkey turns around and starts to put the energy crunch on them…like the Russians have been.

But watch out! This is what I really want you to see! The Turks are not going to roll over and die if they don’t get in the EU, and Central Asia may be where they will re-focus their foreign policy and diplomacy. Why there? Several reasons:

1)Cultural and historic ties—the ethnic group called ‘the Turks’ are from Central Asia originally, and they share linguistic and religious commonalities with their Asian buddies. Ever wonder how Turkmenistan got its name?
2)As pointed out above, Central Asia is producing a shitload of energy…and a serious percentage of that shitload flows thru Turkey to get to the rest of the world. Turkey would like to see even more flow thru their territory, thus increasing their geopolitical hand while decreasing Russia’s—‘cause whoever has or controls the oil of the future controls a lot!
3)While Turkey may be looked upon as a poor and backwards stepchild within the EU framework, it would be a true leader of states to their east—being richer, more technologically advanced and more politically stable than virtually any country east of them to China! And speaking of China, Turkey’s involvement as a power player in Central Asia would also cut into China’s influence as well. The ‘Great Game’ is back on!

So Europe has got some thinking to do, and Turkey does as well. Many in Turkey are becoming totally disenfranchised with the whole bullshit EU entry process, and many have given up on it already. But that don’t mean that they’ve given up aspirations to be a regional power! Let’s watch the Turks carefully this year to see where new relationships may be blossoming…I personally bet that the next President or Prime Minister of Turkey will soon go on a whirlwind tour of Central Asia states trying to sign as many trade deals as he can…but we shall see.

I won’t lie to you Turkey: you’ve got your work cut out for you trying to establish ties in Central Asia, cause the SCO has beat you to the punch. SCO? What the hell is an SCO? The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is not to be messed with! Back the fuck up off the SCO! Maybe I better fly from here to China and tell you a little bit more about these guys in my next blog….

The Plaid Avenger strikes! Time to enlighten but not frighten. Today’s topic: Afghanistan must seriously be going to hell in a hand-basket, and the feeble US news agencies, as well as the US government, just aren’t telling you shit! Check it:

More SAS to take on Taliban

Two more Canadians reportedly killed in Afghanistan

Australia to double Afghan force

US extends troops’ tour of duty

Plaid people! This is serious shit! The government and the media are all focuses intently on watching destruction in Iraq, but everyone seems to have forgotten that the US/NATO invaded Afghanistan many, many moons ago too, and the situation is getting worse! WTF??? AS far as the Plaid is concerned, Iraq is in a full state of civil war, and no amount of US money, soldiers, or bombs is going to stop that process now. It sucks to be sure, but I just call them like I see them.

But the bigger point is this: Iraq has become such a political hot potato in US culture, that everyone has conveniently forgot that there is a still very much active war against the Taliban in Afghanistan….and the US/NATO is losing that one too!!! The US, along with all of its staunchest NATO allies, is quietly increasing the numbers of troops that are being sent to the land-locked, land-mined, dusty desert of Central Asia. And they ain’t being sent to set up circus tents either. Given that the US military is already over-extended in Iraq, the fact the they are putting ever-more-scarce troops in Afghanistan can only mean one thing: bad shit is happening, and it’s libel to get much, much worse.

The world somehow assumed that the Taliban were beat, done, and gone a few years ago…but SURPRISE! They are back, and in full fighting force. The above headlines reference not only increases in troop numbers, but also more frequent deadly attacks on NATO forces there—the Canadians alone have lost 6 to 8 men in the last several days. How is it that the Taliban are regrouping and gaining support? For the very reasons that they came to power in the first damn place!

The Taliban are a hardcore, extremist, religious fundamental group that essentially want to recreate the 11^th century again here in the 21^st, and that sounds shitty to folks like us in the rich world. But you’ve got to understand that folks in an impoverished, chaotic, lawless, and shit-filled situation (like Afghanistan) think that returning to the 11st century may be A-okay! Why not? The 21^st century sucks for them so far! But seriously, the extremism of the Taliban did bring law an order to a chaotic, warlord dominated state; the Taliban did bring an organized and uncorrupted government (fucked up, but not corrupted) to Afghanistan; and the Taliban—yes, the Taliban—even decreased the amount of opium being produced in the state.

While the Plaid Avenger still personally despises the Taliban because of their totalitarian tactics and utter lack of respect for human rights, I at least understand why they were successful in coming to power the first time, and why they seem to be having a resurgence here as of late. Do you now see why? Because the state totally sucks for most people man! From warlord-dominated chaos and poverty to NATO-dominated chaos and poverty, folks in this country have not had much to hope for. And to be honest, the only entity that has ever had any success in controlling this state for even a limited time has been….can you guess?….yep, that’s right: the Taliban.

Let’s get one thing straight Plaid People: I think they suck. The Plaid Avenger fights for justice, human rights, human dignity, and human equality, and thus the Taliban is no friend of mine. But I want you to understand the dilemma of the people in Afghanistan, and indeed of the NATO forces in Afghanistan as well. Shits gotta change. Just trying to kill the bad guys isn’t enough anymore. Because as the US/NATO forces have found out, there is no killing of all the bad guys…they will never get them all. ‘The West’ has got to change its attitude about invading countries to simply kill bad guys. It hasn’t worked, its not working, and it’s not going to ever work.

Do I have all the answers about how to do it right? Nope. I am simply one slightly tipsy superhero who hopes that someone in the US state Department, or the NATO command, or at the UN figures out that it takes more than bombs and bullets to win these battles. In Afghanistan, life sucks, everyone is impoverished, most are hungry, the economy is non-existent, locals are dying, NATO troops are dying, and opium production has just reaching an all-time record high (pun intended), while the damn country is being occupied by the US.

WTF? How is killing a bunch of renegade desert bandits going to change any of that? Plaid Avenger Afghan 3-month forecast: Look for it to be a long, hot summer of death and destruction, with highs in the upper 110’s…and highs in the opium fields too.

Write your Congressman. Write NATO. Join the French Foreign Legion and invade the Vatican. Whatever it takes to make a change.

Party on

-PA