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Bhutto Buried; Pakistan Itself Not Far Behind…

• World
• South Asia & Central Asia

Greetings from an extended seasonal hiatus my plaid friends! My apologies for the extended absence, but I had to head north for the holidays….far north to be exacter. I was at the North Pole investigating competing claims to the Arctic territory, but wound up fishing a totally soused Yukon Cornelius out of a drunken Eskimo orgy in Inuit territory. That Yukon! I've been carrying his weak ass back to Santa's palace for years.

And sorry to have to check back in for such a dismal news assessment, but as all of you are aware, Benazir Bhutto was assassinated last week and now Pakistan is in flames…figuratively and literally. This country is totally screwed with a capital SCHLONG. I won't do a whole in-depth blog on it right this second since many of the details are still sketchy and the country is in for a shit ton of turmoil in the coming weeks in which anything can happen. Seriously friends, this is the type of situation in which full on revolution and chaos are ripe. So let me just make a few comments addressing the questions many of you have sent me:

Big question numero uno: Did Musharraf have anything to do with the Bhutto assassination? Almost assuredly not. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and say hell freakin no. Why am I so sure? Because Musharraf has been leading a country that has been on the brink of total chaos and collapse. Now he is leading a country that IS in chaos with a real tangible threat of collapse. He already had the shittiest job ever, and it just got worse. Bhutto's death may very well be the death of his presidency, and he knows it. Mush did not order or condone the killing of Bhutto.

Having said that, he is still partially to blame. How? Because there is also no doubt in the Plaid Avenger's mind that Mush was playing political hardball with Bhutto. See, Bhutto has been gaining even more popularity since her return, and everyone knew she was going to have a big win in the upcoming elections. Now, Mush knew he couldn't stop that from happening, but he didn't want to help her become even more powerful either. So the Mush government consistently refused to beef up security around Bhutto, even though she routinely requested it…and even though everybody knew the danger level was high.

Security lapse and Bhutto's personal touch made her vulnerable to attack

So Mush did not order her assassination. Mush did not even know about the plans of her assassination. Mush is not even exactly sure who assassinated her. But Mush does hold some culpability for allowing the assassination to occur.

Big question numero dos: So who did kill her? That is actually an easy one. It's the same folks who tried to kill her a few months ago…who happen to be the same folks who have tried to kill Musharraf several times too. Its them damn terrorist Muslim extremist types that are all over Pakistan and Afghanistan! Why did they want her (and Mush) dead? Because Bhutto and Mush are both staunch secularist when it comes to Pakistani government. That means they want to keep a strict separation between religion and politics. And both Bhutto and Mush support the US/World 'War on Terrorism', in which the fight is hottest right there on Paki soil.

Those extremist types (like al-Qaeda and the Taliban) are fighting for establishment of a theocratic Muslim state, or they are fighting for an independent state within Pakistan (i.e. Waziristan), or they are just fighting like hell against the Paki government because they don't like the fact that Mush/Pakistan is so cozy with the US when it comes to foreign policy. Remember, Pakistan receives a shit-ton of foreign aid from the US, primarily to keep up the 'war on terrorism.' As you can imagine, the terrorist don't like that idea too much, so total destabilization of Pakistan by any means is one of their ongoing goals.

Not to confuse you too much, but you should also note that a whole lot of these 'terrorists' are actually not Taliban or al-Qaeda operatives…but are increasingly ethnic Waziri, Baloch, or Pashtun folks who are being whipped into a fury with the promise of independence from Pakistan. Whipped up by who? Why by al-Qaeda and the Taliban forces of course. Yeah…what a great idea that is to take advice from al-Qaeda on how to become an independent state. Good luck with that one, guys. Why don't you just paint a big ass bull-eye across your territory so the bombers know where to drop their payload?

So while I cringe from ever agreeing with the overly-simplistic Cheney administration's take on international affairs, they happen to be right on this one. The Bhutto assassination was without a doubt carried out by fringe Islamic extremists within Pakistan. Bhutto's people are already disputing this fact, but they are politically motivated to do so. They hate Mush so much now (like they didn't before?) that they are adamant that his government be connected to the assassination. They want his ass out in the worst way, so they will continue to implicate Mush and the entire government in Bhutto's death. Again, its just a political ploy….but it may well work.

Bhutto killing blamed on al-Qaeda

Anger, mistrust at Bhutto death among Pakistan's bloggers

Big question numero tres: So what now for Pakistan? Well, that is the big question isn't it? And I hate to get into the speculation game like so many other freakin' worthless pundits on Capitol Hill and on radio/TV talk shows. It really is too close to the events and too soon to tell what is going to play out in Pakistan. But I will offer this: it's going to get messy. A lot messier than it even is now.

There really are no strong, popular figures in Pakistan right this second that can pull things together. Which means things are going to continue to get pulled further apart. And while the mainstream news media has not been reporting on it too much (they have been kept so busy all year telling you about the status of Brittany Spears' vagina), things have been getting much worse in Afghanistan and the Afghan/Paki border. Al-Qaeda and the Taliban have made fairly decent gains in terms of outright controlling more territory and making a bigger political impact across the entire region. The Taliban has been moving stridently right up to the Afghan capital city….and NATO and the rest of the boys are losing ground in this battle.

And as referenced above, al-Qaeda has also done a stellar job recruiting the locals to fight the Paki government, mostly via bullshit promises that somehow this will result in a stable independent state for Waziristan and others. So Afghanistan is becoming more turbulent, and the western side of Pakistan is becoming a wide-open hotbed of military activity too. Hell, its bordering on an open war zone! A couple of months ago, a small village/territory in Waziristan started flying an official Taliban flag and declared its independence from Pakistan. Talk about a shit storm coming!

Al-Qaeda aims at Pakistan's heart

Long story short, shit has been hitting the fan, shit is hitting the fan, and a monster terd may be coming to smash the entire house where the fan is running. Elections which are due to be held this month will likely amount to nothing…since there is no singular popular strong figure for everyone to rally around. Mush will hold on for a bit longer, but the longer he hangs out, the more ripe Pakistan becomes for yet another military coup or a widespread anti-Mush riot which will probably end with the military declaring martial law again. Or worse. A bunch of people may get killed in such a political crackdown, and that will certainly spell the end of Mush's presidency.

In other words, no good solution in sight. Possibilities include: a military coup ousting Mush; Mush may be assassinated too…but if he goes down it will be by insiders, not by terrorists; Mush may get sick of all the shit and step down voluntarily and call for snap elections; elections will proceed as scheduled, but accomplish little in terms of real change; a massive surge of terrorist/independence movement violence in the western regions which will over-tax the military and possibly crash the whole country; Waziristan declaring inpendence with a pro-Taliban government; and/or Dick Cheney declaring war on Asia.

Oh, and of course the reality may be that several of these options occur simultaneously. Ew. That will be a real pot of shit simmering on the world stove. Stir occasionally, and it will serve one to two billion. I suggest a crisp New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc with that dish!

Party on Pakistani-style. Which is to say: party like it's your last day on earth.

-PA

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